It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good chance I get more snow tomorrow than during yesterday’s debacle 

There's a chance for that here too lol. Although I would cap it at an inch here.

[Allsnow]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s not about setting anyone straight. Not sure why I keep getting quoted multiple times when I am not in that thread. But I have looked at the responses and statements and have some replies. First, we have never had 9 consecutive winters this warm in the Northeast before. One of the dominant themes is that the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has lead to more forcing from MJO 4-7 which had been written up in numerous studies. Forcing in this region is warm for the Northeast. So it makes perfect sense that it has been this warm in our region over the last 9 winters.  I never said that we couldn’t eventually see another colder than average winter in the Northeast. Just that as long as this WPAC warm pool remains so prominent, it will probably load the dice for more warmer than colder winters over time. I am not sure what could shift this but would be open to a change if some new region of tropical forcing can emerge.

The reduction in the snowfall has occurred a little later beginning with the 18-19 season. It has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below normal snowfall in NYC. It seems to be a combo of warmer than normal winters and the more hostile Pacific patterns. Seems like the epic 2010-2018 snowfall period carried over into the beginning of the warm winter period that started in December 15 with the historic +13.3 departure. My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest decade and when the 2020s are complete will see a significantly lower snowfall period vs the 2010s. But this doesn’t mean that we can t have some great snowfall seasons in the mix like 20-21 along the way. Snowfall has been more variable while winters have been steadily warming over the years.

Second, the warm blob in the NEPAC from 13-14 to 14-15 was the result of tropical forcing and not the direct cause of the pattern. This pattern quickly shifted after 2 years during the winters but became prominent in the warm season. It was a direct result of the tropical driven Rossby wave pattern. The record PAC NW heatwave a few summers ago and numerous Western drought seasons with the powerful Western Ridge were part of this pattern. An interesting question for study is why the seasonal shift occurred after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters?

Feel free to quote this post if you like.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is the latest fad to explain a small sample size of outcomes IMHO. We’ve seen it for decades now. 
 

- Late 1990s literature blamed the big reversal of NAO/AO to predominately positive phases on CC

-early 2010s literature blamed the big flip back to -AO/NAO on CC via melting sea ice

- mid-2010s literature blamed the western drought and cold eastern winters in the pacific warm blob due to CC

 

I remember being called a climate denier for being skeptical of the sea ice theory circa 2012 or so. It’s hard to have rational discussions about these attribution studies with people who don’t really care about rigor. 
 

MJO is popular right now because “it makes sense” in explaining a small sample of shit winters in the east. To your point, maybe the MJO stuff is true in a vacuum but people are over-attributing the MJO to our own weather. 
 

What is going to be the next explanation when we get a couple of cold-loses winters in a row?

@bluewave reasoning 

[qg_omega]

Big El Niño backloaded February so far

[CoastalWx]

The 13-14 and 14-15 winters were more from tropical forcing. The ridging that resulted formed the warm blob. The warm blob itself did not force any pattern.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Alaska was amazing. I would honestly move there if it wasn't for the astronomical prices of literally everything. Plus the fact that its in the middle of nowhere and food in the supermarket is not fresh at all. There is also a lot of homelessness and drug and alcohol abuse, particularly in Anchorage.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good chance I get more snow tomorrow than during yesterday’s debacle 

It's pretty much a lock here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

There's a chance for that here too lol. Although I would cap it at an inch here.

If I get an inch it would be the biggest snowfall of February here. lol. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's pretty much a lock here.

4 flakes would do it there 

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

4 flakes would do it there 

That’s about half my snowfall to date!

[Chrisrotary12]

Howling in the tree tops.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

@bluewave reasoning 

I don’t really have an issue with most of his posts. He’s a bit more nuanced than some of the CC zealots. 
 

My biggest disagreement with him was about blocking staying further south semi-permanently going forward due to Atlantic SSTs….

The MJO stuff is an interesting theory but I still lean on it being over-attributed just like many of the other factors that were presented prior. He does mention it could reverse which is more than others have said. Having record warmth is definitely easier due to CC because the globe is warmer. No arguing that. You’re always going to get some weird and anomalous streaks…and the easiest explanation is going to be CC and people will ride that whether the attribution was like 10% or 20% or 80%. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is the latest fad to explain a small sample size of outcomes IMHO. We’ve seen it for decades now. 
 

- Late 1990s literature blamed the big reversal of NAO/AO to predominately positive phases on CC

-early 2010s literature blamed the big flip back to -AO/NAO on CC via melting sea ice

- mid-2010s literature blamed the western drought and cold eastern winters in the pacific warm blob due to CC

 

I remember being called a climate denier for being skeptical of the sea ice theory circa 2012 or so. It’s hard to have rational discussions about these attribution studies with people who don’t really care about rigor. 
 

MJO is popular right now because “it makes sense” in explaining a small sample of shit winters in the east. To your point, maybe the MJO stuff is true in a vacuum but people are over-attributing the MJO to our own weather. 
 

What is going to be the next explanation when we get a couple of cold-loses winters in a row?

All of those were nothing more than guesses by anyone.  One thing we do know as a fact though, we've hit +1.5C of warming over 12 months and a lot sooner than anyone ever expected.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t really have an issue with most of his posts. He’s a bit more nuanced than some of the CC zealots. 
 

My biggest disagreement with him was about blocking staying further south semi-permanently going forward due to Atlantic SSTs….

The MJO stuff is an interesting theory but I still lean on it being over-attributed just like many of the other factors that were presented prior. He does mention it could reverse which is more than others have said. Having record warmth is definitely easier due to CC because the globe is warmer. No arguing that. You’re always going to get some weird and anomalous streaks…and the easiest explanation is going to be CC and people will ride that whether the attribution was like 10% or 20% or 80%. 

The zealots on the denier side are MUCH worse.

But without getting too political, this should be added, we won't see any needed reforms to the system until we kick the fossil fuel cartel lobbyists out of the system, just like when we kicked the tobacco cartel lobbyists out of the system.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

The zealots on the denier side are MUCH worse.

But without getting too political, this should be added, we won't see any needed reforms to the system until we kick the fossil fuel cartel lobbyists out of the system, just like when we kicked the tobacco cartel lobbyists out of the system.

I’m more interested in actual truth than arguing politics and “which side is worse”. This is a weather forum and we’re interested in what the weather is going to be. The problem with most of the climate change debate in the context of a weather forum is that it doesn’t provide much (if any) use in operational forecasting outside of leaning warmer in seasonal outlooks absent all other info. It tells me nothing about the prospects of next week’s snow chances and tells us nothing about the chances of getting a severe wx outbreak up here this spring. 
 

There’s been an increase of memory-holing of historical weather events in recent years and it’s not a good way to increase our weather knowledge. I don’t even want to know what we’re going to hear when we get another 1930s-1950s tropical cyclone period in the North Atlantic. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Hey my views on climate change are probably close to yours.

But is what you imply that these CA atmospheric river events are going to be even more common?

I don't like the term "atmospheric river" and the media throws it around a lot.

It might be a scientific term, but it's more than a little sensationalistic.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m more interested in actual truth than arguing politics and “which side is worse”. This is a weather forum and we’re interested in what the weather is going to be. The problem with most of the climate change debate in the context of a weather forum is that it doesn’t provide much (if any) use in operational forecasting outside of leaning warmer in seasonal outlooks absent all other info. It tells me nothing about the prospects of next week’s snow chances and tells us nothing about the chances of getting a severe wx outbreak up here this spring. 
 

There’s been an increase of memory-holing of historical weather events in recent years and it’s not a good way to increase our weather knowledge. I don’t even want to know what we’re going to hear when we get another 1930s-1950s tropical cyclone period in the North Atlantic. 

This is something I've wondered and talked about a lot.... despite the spike in TCs with the latest +AMO period, we haven't seen east coast TCs as strong or as many as we did back in the 1930s-1950s warm AMO period.  I wonder why? Most of the bigger storms seem to be concentrated in the GOM.

When was the last time we had a Cat 3 hit anywhere from Cape Hatteras on north?

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Jesus H 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is something I've wondered and talked about a lot.... despite the spike in TCs with the latest +AMO period, we haven't seen east coast TCs as strong or as many as we did back in the 1930s-1950s warm AMO period.  I wonder why? Most of the bigger storms seem to be concentrated in the GOM.

When was the last time we had a Cat 3 hit anywhere from Cape Hatteras on north?

 

 

I’m pretty sure the last major hurricane landfall north of Cape Hatteras was Edna on the Cape in 1954…ironically right before that was another cat 3 that was even stronger and that was hurricane Carol when it made landfall in RI. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’m pretty sure the last major hurricane landfall north of Cape Hatteras was Edna on the Cape in 1954…ironically right before that was another cat 3 that was even stronger and that was hurricane Carol when it made landfall in RI. 

That was just an almost unbelievable period of intense TC activity that we've not seen anything like that since.  I wonder what was different about the 50s vs today? The SSTs are warmer now but we don't see those kinds of storms that far north anymore.

 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was just an almost unbelievable period of intense TC activity that we've not seen anything like that since.  I wonder what was different about the 50s vs today? The SSTs are warmer now but we don't see those kinds of storms that far north anymore.

 

Yeah it would make an interesting study. It’s too bad we don’t have better data from that period. The late 1800s was also another period of frequent TC activity along the east coast. But it doesn’t quite match that 1930s-1960 period. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

43 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Howling in the tree tops.

Same here. Tops of the white pines are huckin' pine cones down left and right. There's literally hundreds of them in yard, and you can hear one occasionally hit the house. Easily the windiest it's been here this winter.

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Alaska was amazing. I would honestly move there if it wasn't for the astronomical prices of literally everything. Plus the fact that its in the middle of nowhere and food in the supermarket is not fresh at all. There is also a lot of homelessness and drug and alcohol abuse, particularly in Anchorage.

Surprisingly one of the most crime ridden cities in the country 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Same here. Tops of the white pines are huckin' pine cones down left and right. There's literally hundreds of them in yard, and you can hear one occasionally hit the house. Easily the windiest it's been here this winter.

Not the day to come back from a week in Florida. Positively bone chilling.

[Cyclone-68]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was just an almost unbelievable period of intense TC activity that we've not seen anything like that since.  I wonder what was different about the 50s vs today? The SSTs are warmer now but we don't see those kinds of storms that far north anymore.

 

Unprecedented tornado season in 1953 and unprecedented hurricane season in ‘54. Any connection?

[MBRI]

Groomers are reporting  3-6"+ new snow in Pittsburg and Colebrook and still snowing.

 

[kdxken]

Not a good year for ice.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was just an almost unbelievable period of intense TC activity that we've not seen anything like that since.  I wonder what was different about the 50s vs today? The SSTs are warmer now but we don't see those kinds of storms that far north anymore.

 

You can say the same thing about severe weather. Why doesn't the northeast US get the same major severe outbreaks that we used to get? Multiple intense derechos in the 80s and 90s, 05/31/85 tornado outbreak, also a high risk day on 05/31/98 that produced seven EF3's in NY state. Don't forget about the 1953 Worcester tornado. I wonder what was the return period for that is? The 50s were crazy. Major hurricanes and F4 tornadoes. You would think that those events would be more common nowadays with all this warming climate, but they're not.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

MJO is the latest fad to explain a small sample size of outcomes IMHO. We’ve seen it for decades now. 
 

- Late 1990s literature blamed the big reversal of NAO/AO to predominately positive phases on CC

-early 2010s literature blamed the big flip back to -AO/NAO on CC via melting sea ice

- mid-2010s literature blamed the western drought and cold eastern winters in the pacific warm blob due to CC

 

I remember being called a climate denier for being skeptical of the sea ice theory circa 2012 or so. It’s hard to have rational discussions about these attribution studies with people who don’t really care about rigor. 
 

MJO is popular right now because “it makes sense” in explaining a small sample of shit winters in the east. To your point, maybe the MJO stuff is true in a vacuum but people are over-attributing the MJO to our own weather. 
 

What is going to be the next explanation when we get a couple of cold-loses winters in a row?

It does often feel like if you don't attribute everything in the weather to CC you are labeled a denier. So messed up. Although when I see a troll post (ex: asserting new england will never see sustained winter again) i assume credibility for a genuine scientific discussion is low.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Unprecedented tornado season in 1953 and unprecedented hurricane season in ‘54. Any connection?

I've wondered the same thing before. It seems like both hurricanes and major severe outbreaks used to happen in the northeast, but not anymore. How about the May 31, 1985 tornado outbreak that produced 9 violent tornadoes? Or the May 31 1998 high risk day that produced seven F3's in NY state? Or all the derechos we used to see in the 80s and 90s. We don't see any of that anymore. Why is that?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I've wondered the same thing before. It seems like both hurricanes and major severe outbreaks used to happen in the northeast, but not anymore. How about the May 31, 1985 tornado outbreak that produced 9 violent tornadoes? Or the May 31 1998 high risk day that produced seven F3's in NY state? Or all the derechos we used to see in the 80s and 90s. We don't see any of that anymore. Why is that?

You could argue we’ve seen less EMLs (elevated mixed layer) than we used to if we’re getting more western Atlantic ridging in the summer giving us higher dewpoint airmasses. I don’t know if that’s true long term or empirically speaking but anecdotally it seems to be the case in recent years. 
 

What we typically want for severe wx in the northeast is an EML that comes over the top from the plains and Great Lakes….they actually originate in the semi-arid climate of the southwest and western plains. Without an EML, it’s a lot harder to get high end severe wx…you need those big lapse rates.