Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: This is the point. Discuss the science behind those assertions of attribution. Forky is right about the expanding IPWP, it will and has effected our climate here and the evidence suggests it will not favor sustained cold weather. His assertion that we will never experience another sustained winter pattern in the NE is where his ulterior motives become clear. I don't believe that was an "assertion" to be taken as an aver of fact. He's not that stupid - no...people are being too sensitive. It was a tongue in cheek sardonic poke at the predicament of it. That's how I read it. That's how it should have been read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: January averaged above to normal there just looking at the NOAA jan Temp color anomaly map so I can’t see it being close to the the coldest coldest and snowiest doesn’t usually go together in a cold pattern- winter wonderland land , I would guess coldest is also usually drier I'm pretty sure January was solidly below-average for Anchorage. They had some prolonged stretches of extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s the only place currently that can sustain winter weather with the unfavorable MJO phases. @forkyfork and @bluewave are correct, the unfavorable mjo phases are here to stay. Winters will be more like the past few years then the snowy early 2000’s I would also think the Late 1990s-Mid 2010s around here were an anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: It's pretty cold: Anchorage sets new record low as dangerous cold sticks around (alaskasnewssource.com) Yes…they had brutal cold. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't believe that was an "assertion" to be taken as an aver of fact. He's not that stupid - no...people are being too sensitive. It was a tongue in cheek sardonic poke at the predicament of it. That's how I read it. That's how it should have been read. lol. Trolls are gonna troll and they should expect to be called out for trolling. That's how it's worked on internet forums since the first caveman said "anyone out there?" on MS DOS. Also how do I know he's not that stupid when he literally says stupid things 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What a winter for Anchorage. One of their coldest/snowiest on record then they roll in with a daily record high yesterday. They must be jumping for joy...unless they like the cold. Why sucks here too, There gain our loss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Can we felt 1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said: lol. Trolls are gonna troll and they should expect to be called out for trolling. That's how it's worked on internet forums since the first caveman said "anyone out there?" on MS DOS. Also how do I know he's not that stupid when he literally says stupid things Ya he’s a complete troll…call the guy out on ridiculous banter like that all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 In other news, Not that i buy it, But the 18z HRRR has a 3-6"+ swath up here in CNE/NNE, And thats on the 10:1 map, Should be higher ratios with this so Kuchera probably a better fit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Lmao…just like Al Gore…when he said we wouldn’t see anymore snow anywhere in New England by 2015. And it just happened to be the snowiest in New England since we’ve been keeping records. Another moron that was spewing nonsense. And That ridiculous comment will be no different. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: In other news, Not that i buy it, But the 18z HRRR has a 3-6"+ swath up here in CNE/NNE, And thats on the 10:1 map, Should be higher ratios with this so Kuchera probably a better fit. Yeah it's starting to look really good, getting excited for riding this weekend. Mountains refresher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The problem I have with all that is that if the MJO wave mechanics are less coupled to the hemisphere in general ...that doesn't logically mean that the absence of MJO influence should "stick" the hemisphere anywhere - the MJO is rendered less effectual ... that what should mean. Nothing else. Folks are trying to create their own attribution models ... some of them may be okay, but we need to remember: this is all out here in the hoi polloi of conjectural storms that are vastly more violent than any K.U. bomb that's ever occurred ... MJO is the latest fad to explain a small sample size of outcomes IMHO. We’ve seen it for decades now. - Late 1990s literature blamed the big reversal of NAO/AO to predominately positive phases on CC -early 2010s literature blamed the big flip back to -AO/NAO on CC via melting sea ice - mid-2010s literature blamed the western drought and cold eastern winters in the pacific warm blob due to CC I remember being called a climate denier for being skeptical of the sea ice theory circa 2012 or so. It’s hard to have rational discussions about these attribution studies with people who don’t really care about rigor. MJO is popular right now because “it makes sense” in explaining a small sample of shit winters in the east. To your point, maybe the MJO stuff is true in a vacuum but people are over-attributing the MJO to our own weather. What is going to be the next explanation when we get a couple of cold-loses winters in a row? 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: In other news, Not that i buy it, But the 18z HRRR has a 3-6"+ swath up here in CNE/NNE, And thats on the 10:1 map, Should be higher ratios with this so Kuchera probably a better fit. no guarantee obviously, but this is what we wanted to see at 18Z and hopefully again overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z Euro just a new version of porking. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: no guarantee obviously, but this is what we wanted to see at 18Z and hopefully again overnight. Yeah, The mesos seem to have a better handle on this, We’ll have to see how it plays out the rest of 18z, 0z and overnight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 58 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i do think that this is also sorta cyclical. the western US and northern Plains have been cashing in over the last several years. it's not like the entire US has just blowtorched every single year since 2015-16. the cold has just been focused somewhere else Valid point, but if you had used 1950-2011 data, this would be all red. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This was a great stretch both in 2014 and 2015. I need to think about the good ole days and get my mind off this other BS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 NAM has a nice crosshair sig tomorrow night over pike region (haven't checked other areas really) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 HRRRGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Rumford 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: In other news, Not that i buy it, But the 18z HRRR has a 3-6"+ swath up here in CNE/NNE, And thats on the 10:1 map, Should be higher ratios with this so Kuchera probably a better fit. Caveats apply to HRRR at this lead but verbatim it's how these typically work here. I wouldn't say the NAMs are on board at 18z yet. Can't remember the last time we had a system like this, don't think we had one verify last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Caveats apply to HRRR at this lead but verbatim it's how these typically work here. I wouldn't say the NAMs are on board at 18z yet. Can't remember the last time we had a system like this, don't think we had one verify last year. If you’re getting huge omega in the DGZ like some of these runs show, it’s how you’d get a 6” fluff bomb from like a quarter inch of QPF. Maine foothills are as good a place as any to get that type of system in any given winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This was a great stretch both in 2014 and 2015. I need to think about the good ole days and get my mind off this other BS. It blows my mind this streak in the metro Boston area but when you guys do northeasters right, you guys really do them right. I hope you guys get a good storm in the next month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 South coast especially should keep an eye on Saturday. I was looking at that a little closer it’s now and aloft looks like it could produce a decent band of snow there. Right now, the system is struggling with a pretty rounded base of the trough but if that sharpens just a hint, than you’d see a pretty nice stripe of snow over southern areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes…they had brutal cold. Thanks for posting. Fairbanks went down to -50 in January. Of course, both PANC and PAFA hit record highs yesterday (43 and 41, respectively). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: South coast especially should keep an eye on Saturday. I was looking at that a little closer it’s now and aloft looks like it could produce a decent band of snow there. Right now, the system is struggling with a pretty rounded base of the trough but if that sharpens just a hint, than you’d see a pretty nice stripe of snow over southern areas. Nam is well north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Snow on snow on snow . Deep winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: We have to think of this along deltas. The delta is consummately going to be pointed in a warming direction - all told science included. But that's not absolute. We're not standing on the sun for acknowledging that objectively, here. Of course we can still sustain a winter - What does sustain mean, anyway. If it means matching "expectations" ? NO, that will never happen. There's only so much heroine in Earth's atmosphere... But everyone also just leans the expectation too far over the line relative to all input anyway. In 1995-1996, the greatest winter I ever experienced for longevity...we couldn't even sustain it the whole way. We had a 2 or 3 week melt down in the midst of it that put the stank on the phrase muddy thaw. Winter came back and persisted into the first couple of weeks of April. But all that aside... the probability of sustaining winter for longer durations ( keeping it ambivalent like that), is going down. That much isn't up to my confidence, ...so long as the world keeps warming and these materialization of consequences continue to offset, there is no other conclusion. But "going down" is often interpreted as rock bottom in the panic prone withdraw syndrome of the d-drip hopefuls. 1995-96 was a great snow year but the weather whipsawed back and forth from Dec 1 thru April 14, at which time spring arrived. Though its 138.8" was 2nd only to 2007-08 (142.3") since we moved from Fort Kent in 1985, it ranked only 5th of 13 winters in Gardiner despite having 30" more than any other of those 13. The good periods, 12/1-21; 1/1-16; 1/29-2/19; 2/29-3/10 and 3/27-4/14. Those 88 days had temps 5.4 BN, 11.83" precip and 130.5" snow. The intervening blecch: 12/22-31; 1/17-28; 2/20-28 and 3/11-26. 47 days that ran +7.2 with 9.59" precip and 6.1" snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, dryslot said: In other news, Not that i buy it, But the 18z HRRR has a 3-6"+ swath up here in CNE/NNE, And thats on the 10:1 map, Should be higher ratios with this so Kuchera probably a better fit. That's some "clipper" that dumps 6"+ from Michigan to Maine, where it might still be snowing at 1 PM EST. Lmao…just like Al Gore…when he said we wouldn’t see anymore snow anywhere in New England by 2015. And it just happened to be the snowiest in New England since we’ve been keeping records. Another moron that was spewing nonsense. And That ridiculous comment will be no different. I recommend adding "Southern" in front of the bolded, as most of NNE did significally better in 2007-08 than 14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Good chance I get more snow tomorrow than during yesterday’s debacle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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