NW_of_GYX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Active on the 12z op with a gradient pattern out towards end of the month. That kind of fits my thinking here, chances through the end of the month with up and in and NNE favored, warm up early March as we build a ridge out west and then maybe another chance after first week of March as the ridge erodes - hopefully we avoid another PAC jet extension to ruin a better 500mb pattern after the first week of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Is this a weather board….or the 1700’s with all this talk of Duals? WTF? Put the trolls on Ignore, and it doesn’t matter. I wish I took that advice years ago. It’s awesome. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, George001 said: Then they are actually backing up their tough talk, which is respectable. Fortunately that has never happened, but I have gotten my ass handed to me by people who I challenged to duels before. I have 100x the respect for the people who accept and defeat me in a duel than I do people who run and hide like cowards. how did you lose a sword battle and not die? is fighting the honorable thing to do, or maybe we could consider the highest value and the greatest courage to be working out our differences? Why am I talking about this lol? Right now our duel is with winter, and we are losing. I still think we can turn it around. The perfect was a mirage, yet again, but it is new england and it can snow pretty easily this time of year. Stay strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Enso states and MJO progression aside. We will get a few days in late February of warmth and The masses rejoice that spring is here and boom! Last year comes to mind, 2018, 2017, 2020 if it wasn’t for covid. This doesn’t apply to coastal dwellers I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: how did you lose a sword battle and not die? is fighting the honorable thing to do, or maybe we could consider the highest value and the greatest courage to be working out our differences? Why am I talking about this lol? Right now our duel is with winter, and we are losing. I still think we can turn it around. The perfect was a mirage, yet again, but it is new england and it can snow pretty easily this time of year. Stay strong. Agreed. Let’s see how the next/last month of winter plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 IDK. Yea the epic pattern faded but it still looks sufficient for snowers before it gets mild. I don’t think march will be an all out torch either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, GCWarrior said: Enso states and MJO progression aside. Doesn’t this happen more often than not? We will get a few days in late February of warmth and The masses rejoice that spring is here and boom! Last year comes to mind, 2018, 2017, 2020 if it wasn’t for covid. This doesn’t apply to coastal dwellers I suppose. And that’s what’s funny…even some folks here think because we get a couple/few nice days in late feb/early March, that we’re off to the races with spring. That’s just downright comical. New England springs suck more than they don’t suck. Be careful what you wish for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IDK. Yea the epic pattern faded but it still looks sufficient for snowers before it gets mild. I don’t think march will be an all out torch either. Epic patterns are overrated. Looking sufficient is plenty good enough in Feb. Ill take my chances with sufficient anytime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said: Getting punched in the face with a solid connection is not fun, humbles you. Lol yes it does, and growing up in the north end of Waterbury, as a basketball player no less, I discovered that..also big don't spell bad either, I've seen small dudes take down a big guy one punch. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Epic patterns are overrated. Looking sufficient is plenty good enough in Feb. Ill take my chances with sufficient anytime. If the goal is just a good snow event, there’s a lot of patterns it can occur in…but ideal or “epic” patterns just make them more likely. The irony about this event yesterday on 2/13 was that it was really prior to the pattern getting good. It was considered gravy if we got anything out of it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said: looks more like a squall line than a clipper down here. In and out. Well sure. Mid level running north of us, surface too for that matter is a red flag for much here. I haven't seen any guidance taking this south. We'll probably get just enough to eff up the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If the goal is just a good snow event, there’s a lot of patterns it can occur in…but ideal or “epic” patterns just make them more likely. The irony about this event yesterday on 2/13 was that it was really prior to the pattern getting good. It was considered gravy if we got anything out of it. Mm, not sure I entirely agree (bold) ...the PNA was in +delta in the days leading. That said, partially agree in that what occurred didn't really appear to be tied very well to planetary scaled ( R-wave) forcing. It was sort of a sub-indexer. Be that as it may, it did propagate through a back-ground +d(PNA) so all else being equal it was more favored than not. Unless I think maybe you mean a very obvious physically/realized pattern featuring? ... Yeah, wasn't a canonical west ridge east trough flexing going on ... but, a lot of the 'forcing' comes from the non-linear/2ndary wave function. The PNA moving in the positive direction is analogous to the non-linear presence (i.e., it cannot always be readily observed ) I'm sure all this means a great deal to everyone reading it LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, tavwtby said: yes it does, and growing up in the north end of Waterbury, as a basketball player no less, I discovered that..also big don't spell bad either, I've seen small dudes take down a big guy one punch. Yup, I had a very similar hoop upbringing and experienced the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If the goal is just a good snow event, there’s a lot of patterns it can occur in…but ideal or “epic” patterns just make them more likely. The irony about this event yesterday on 2/13 was that it was really prior to the pattern getting good. It was considered gravy if we got anything out of it. I mentioned this about the one yesterday happening before any good pattern set in, and it being gravy. It happened in a not so good pattern too. So now we are heading into a more conducive pattern…so maybe we can get another one to work out for the area….? And we’ve had a few epic patterns the last couple yrs, that didn’t produce Jack…so there’s that too as we’ve seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm, not sure I entirely agree (bold) ...the PNA was in +delta in the days leading. That said, partially agree in that what occurred didn't really appear to be tied very well to planetary scaled ( R-wave) forcing. It was sort of a sub-indexer. Be that as it may, it did propagate through a back-ground +d(PNA) so all else being equal it was more favored than not. Unless I think maybe you mean a very obvious physically/realized pattern featuring? ... Yeah, wasn't a canonical west ridge east trough flexing going on ... but, a lot of the 'forcing' comes from the non-linear/2ndary wave function. The PNA moving in the positive direction is analogous to the non-linear present (i.e., it cannot always be readily observed ) I agree there was a signal for a storm. You had a thread on it well prior to it becoming very cohesive on guidance. But it was prior to getting a good airmass in here…sort of the leading edge of the pattern shift. Seems our biggest problem going forward is now not being able to time any features together in the longwave pattern to produce a larger scale winter storm…there’s always something mucking it up whether it’s shortwave spacing or the longwave pattern itself breaking down after short intervals of favoribility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I mentioned this about the one yesterday happening before any good pattern set in, and it being gravy. It happened in a not so good pattern too. So now we are heading into a more conducive pattern…so maybe we can get another one to work out for the area….? And we’ve had a few epic patterns the last couple yrs, that didn’t produce Jack…so there’s that too as we’ve seen. Our biggest problem in the past two years is windows of favoribility have been short. Yeah, we also got unlucky when they did occur and we got skunked, but being able to take 4 or 5 shots at a pattern is way better than 1 or 2. The composite of the past 3 winters (if you include this one so far) has put the highest heights over the eastern US. It’s the exact opposite of what you’d want to see to get plentiful chances at snow events. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I mentioned this about the one yesterday happening before any good pattern set in, and it being gravy. It happened in a not so good pattern too. So now we are heading into a more conducive pattern…so maybe we can get another one to work out for the area….? And we’ve had a few epic patterns the last couple yrs, that didn’t produce Jack…so there’s that too as we’ve seen. Same with those that salivate over "epic blocking" More times than I can remember all that means is congrats Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 24th still is a signal, but yeah...I wouldn't get hopes up this far out. Otherwise it's just a fast flow with some cold shots and rather mundane look. Too bad Saturday won't work out. Maybe a little -SN southern areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Our biggest problem in the past two years is windows of favoribility have been short. Yeah, we also got unlucky when they did occur and we got skunked, but being able to take 4 or 5 shots at a pattern is way better than 1 or 2. The composite of the past 3 winters (if you include this one so far) has put the highest heights over the eastern US. It’s the exact opposite of what you’d want to see to get plentiful chances at snow events. Yes, 100% agree. Oh well, let’s see how we do over the next 4-5 weeks before we close the book on this winter altogether. I have twice the snow currently this year, that I did for all of last year. So that’s one small consolation so far. I’m at about 50% of average currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Close to last year. Rat hell. Don't really see much to change that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and we're probably not going to see any sustained good winter patterns for the rest of our lives 2 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and we're probably not going to see any sustained good winter patterns for the rest of our lives A couple of years ago they were talking about 10 years of drought in California. Now, is it atmospheric rivers as far as the eye can see? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mahk_webstah said: A couple of years ago they were talking about 10 years of drought in California. Now, is it atmospheric rivers as far as the eye can see? maybe the huge area of near 90 degree water in the west pac will magically cool down despite co2 emissions not dropping 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: maybe the huge area of near 90 degree water in the west pac will magically cool down despite co2 emissions not dropping Hey my views on climate change are probably close to yours. But is what you imply that these CA atmospheric river events are going to be even more common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just flew up the coast from Florida. Kind of weird to see snow on the beaches from Jersey to Providence. Doesn't happen much. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Here comes my mercurial post of the day - despite all protestations re the pattern and what can happen and all that... that is highly compartmentalized and an effort to remain unbiased behind making those reports. personally? this winter and all of it going forward from here on out can go f itself. I wish it would not only heat burst, but stay there. But, since my personal druthers and hopes and dreams seldom couple up with reality, there's no sense pining about what cannot be prevented. Such that one last +PNA surge on the heels of a -EPO cold dump, together with a trough amplitude in the ens for those days ... still needs to be analyzed fairly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and we're probably not going to see any sustained good winter patterns for the rest of our lives When does the great weenie migration to Alaska begin, my bags are packed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Hey my views on climate change are probably close to yours. But is what you imply that these CA atmospheric river events are going to be even more common? i have no idea about that. i do know about sst trends and the mjo tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and we're probably not going to see any sustained good winter patterns for the rest of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Close to last year. Rat hell. Don't really see much to change that. Once we got to Mid Jan after a 45 day torch and that "good pattern" was reduced to 8 days before yet another long torch it was over. Rare for ratter winters to suddenly turn good if the worm doesn't turn by the end of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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