It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[NorEastermass128]

I’m looking forward to turning the corner with this winter. IMO…this was worse than 01-02, 11-12, and 22-23. Ratter to the extreme. Next year just HAS to be better. Maybe not. 

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Tomorrow night could certainly overperform I think. NAM has the s/w amplifying as it moves across the region. Some pretty steep lapse rates involved too. Could be some hefty snow squalls. Maybe even some thunder/lightning across Pennsylvania with squalls which could propagate across southern New England. I could see some spots picking up 1-2''. 

NAM shows maybe .15-.2 for up here.  That could be 2-4"   I'm eager to see what other meso guidance gives later today and overnight.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its such a worthwhile endeavor because its such a great avenue for personal ernichment...regardless of outcome. Sure, you get some people that shit on you when you are wrong, but its normally 2 types of people and its inwardly driven.

1) People who also partake in the effort themselves, and are either very insecure and/or dissatisfied with a certain aspect(s) of their own lives and project that onto my effort instead of the mirror.

2) People who would like to engage in the effort themselves as the ultimate means of expression and undersanding of their life long passion. But alas, just can not get over the ambivalence barrier to committing to such an effort, and reconicle that fact by resenting the efforts of those who do so out resentment and subconcious envy.

preach

[NW_of_GYX]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

NAM shows maybe .15-.2 for up here.  That could be 2-4"   I'm eager to see what other meso guidance gives later today and overnight.

Love it. You’re a true weenie Mahk, single-handedly keeping the vibes positive in here while the Debbie’s have their day 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

NAM shows maybe .15-.2 for up here.  That could be 2-4"   I'm eager to see what other meso guidance gives later today and overnight.

I would not be surprised to see mesos continue to beef up a bit more throughout the day. I haven't look in tremendous detail yet to see if this is something which will be a larger, more uniform precipitation shield or something that is more along the line of scattered-to-numerous squalls. I think the HRRR may have a solid idea of a more uniform precip shield further north, closer to the vort with squalls from PA through SNE.

[wx2fish]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

NAM shows maybe .15-.2 for up here.  That could be 2-4"   I'm eager to see what other meso guidance gives later today and overnight.

Could be a little enhanced area across CNE, especially across SW ME 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

preach

Good rule of life that hardly ever fails...there is always a reason why some try to push you down and its usually to prop themselves up. The truely healthy individuals do not feel the need to do that to anyone because they already value themselves.

[Henry's Weather]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just adding to your philosophy ...  anyone that opposes anything in reality ( really), is not "right"   if/when they do not provide logic to support their basis - which seldom happens. That's a red flag - insufficient corroborative evidence to frame lucidity.

If/when they are providing proofs that at minimum ...withstand basic arithmetic of clad meteorological concepts and application, others would be more accepting of their position. 

Somewhere in the pessimists of this red flag ilk, there may be a semblance of persistence based reasoning - but it's a default that fails if that's the case.  We just had two 10-15" snow events:  Jan 7 ... Feb 13.  Collectively, those of fair/objective outlook correctly ferreted those events out of the various guidance and techniques therein.  I don't recall any other storms this year that failed as badly as the pessimists failed to correctly claim they would not happen. 

The score is 2-0.

...  So they are not righteous, out of box.  

It's obvious that they have some spectrum related problem relating to other's and group modes of thinking- and this unfortunatley provides them some sandbox within which they can constantly experiment with their own dysfunctionality.

Simply stop engaging with the red-flaggers.  You don't even have to set them on ignore.  Just do that anyway...

problem solved.   You'll know when you are encountering worth-while con, or pro... either way.  That's what you engage with.

I realize there are some post adolescence maturation types in here... but a lot of this garbage back and forth is coming from middle age and elder users that seem to have trouble with this. 

 

Right, it’s not that people can’t want outcomes. It’s that logical discourse allows us to find which outcomes are actually most likely. Argumentation needs to have primary salience for why someone thinks something is going to happen. Otherwise, the scientific enterprise is not happening, for better or for worse.

God, this conversation makes me want to start a blog a la @weatherwizand others. Just some sort of objective metric.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

NAM shows maybe .15-.2 for up here.  That could be 2-4"   I'm eager to see what other meso guidance gives later today and overnight.

Hires models are a little interesting. HRRR redevelops it far enough south in the GOM that we back the flow easterly for a bit while that potent ULL/vort moves in behind it.

[CoastalWx]

HRRR definitely more aggressive. NAM is maybe C-1".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR definitely more aggressive. NAM is maybe C-1".

Model is kind of hit or miss....it put on an absolute clinic in that one 1/7 pasting up here, but it was sent to the glue factor yesterday.

Funny thing is I probably would have bought the EURO bailing on yesterday if the HRRR hadn't nailed my 1/7 jackpot.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Right, it’s not that people can’t want outcomes. It’s that logical discourse allows us to find which outcomes are actually most likely. Argumentation needs to have primary salience for why someone thinks something is going to happen. Otherwise, the scientific enterprise is not happening, for better or for worse.

God, this conversation makes me want to start a blog a la @weatherwizand others. Just some sort of objective metric.

Yeah well...  perhaps some cynical overtones to the following, but any engagement with the hoi polloi ... good luck.

The internet comes along with a downside ... It requires some sort of formal disciplined sociological research, but the anonymity provides negative re-enforcement of behavior ... even attracting those that have twisted their socialization to the point where that's really how they prefer, or feel most comfortable, interacting with others.

It is what it is.

 

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Love it. You’re a true weenie Mahk, single-handedly keeping the vibes positive in here while the Debbie’s have their day 

Lol.  I think 3-4" would be nice to look at and to cover the slippery crusty paths in the woods.  I like my walks...especially if I can't have my pack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah well...  perhaps some cynical overtones to the following, but any engagement with the hoi polloi ... good luck.

The internet is has a downside ... It requires some sort formal disciplined sociological research, but the anonymity provides negative re-enforcement of behavior ... even attracting those that have twisted their socialization to the point where that's really how the prefer or feel most comfortable interacting with others.

It is what it is.

 

Its synonymous with driving in that respect...its easier to act like an ass on the road and behind the keyboard.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hires models are a little interesting. HRRR redevelops it far enough south in the GOM that we back the flow easterly for a bit while that potent ULL/vort moves in behind it.

as you know way better than me, these situations sometimes surprise upside.  4" would be a huge win, in a practical sense.

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Couple chances at flurries until the next disappointment in 10 days. 

[Typhoon Tip]

NYers would probably be dreaming of the recent ICONic solutions ... persistent 4" snow burst implicated by the latter weekend thing. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its synonymous with driving in that respect...its easier to act like an ass on the road and behind the keyboard.

haha...I like it...  "Web-rage"

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...I like it...  "Web-rage"

I am totally guilty of it. Despite the insight, my emotions still get ahead of my brain....my postualation is that road rage and cyber bullying are positively correlated because its the same population that would have an issue with both...defecits in emotional regulation and impulse control.

Social media/internet is probably not helping with incidence of road rage, among other negative outcomes/MH issues in society..hint, hint.

[dryslot]

I've seen these clippers blow up once they hit the atlantic in the GOM and we've had 6"+ on occasions locally, Not saying it will happen but these tend to ramp up some in the last 24hrs.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I've seen these clippers blow up once they hit the atlantic in the GOM and we've had 6"+ on occasions locally, Not saying it will happen but these tend to ramp up some in the last 24hrs.

If it happens I’d definitely favor your area. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If it happens I’d definitely favor your area. 

It usually is here to the DE Maine, But i'll be up north and rather see a few more up there.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am totally guilty of it. Despite the insight, my emotions still get ahead of my brain....my postualation is that road rage and cyber bullying are positively correlated because its the same population that would have an issue with both...defecits in emotional regulation and impulse control.

Sounds 'bout right (bold) ... I'm not a sociologist ( first and foremost) but ... I do enjoy attempting trenchant observations of social group idiosyncratic BS  ...  catching it in the act makes it!  haha.  But even individual behaviors...  I don't have a psycho babble degree, but I do have long years of experience suffering by the vicissitudes of humanity.  I'm always suspecting x-a-omega ...then reading about it later and finding out that my personal posit was essentially correct, posits that are drawn from experience..etc.

I like to drill down into the "reason for the impulse" to begin with though - that origin is what really defines the real assholes. You see ... I'm not talking about you ...me or whomever getting angry and losing it.  I mean everyone gets pissed off - it's human.  I was referring to the precalculating 'set the coffee down' in preparation like a box of kleenex and lotion types.  The internet also attracts those seekers -

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sounds 'bout right ... I'm not a sociologist ( first and foremost) but ... I do enjoy attempting trenchant observations of social group idiosyncratic BS  ...  catching it in the act makes it!  haha.  But even individual behaviors...  I don't have a psycho babble degree, but I do have long years of experience suffering by the vicissitudes of humanity. 

I drill down into the "reason for the impulse" to begin with though - that origin is what really defines the real assholes

Well, we all have them...but some are better equipped to have the brain filter them out...myriad of different reasons why the defectis may exist, but in a general sense....IQ and mental illness due to genetics and lifestyle (addiction history lends itself to increased pulsivity).

[CoastalWx]

It’s been an exercise to not have violent impulsive reactions last two winters. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we all have them...but some are better equipped to have the brain filter them out...myriad of different reasons why the defectis may exist, but in a general sense....IQ and mental illness due to genetics and lifestyle (addiction history lends itself to increased pulsivity).

I know.. I added this to clear up,

"You see ... I'm not talking about you ...me or whomever getting angry and losing it.  I mean everyone gets pissed off - it's human. I was referring to the pre-calculating, 'set the coffee down' in preparation like a box of kleenex and lotion types.  The internet also attracts those seekers - "

those that actually accrue their joy from it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s been an exercise to not have violent impulsive reactions last two winters. 

Hopefully we get 2/24 to workout, or else I'll be spending my draft in an intensive, inpatient DBT clinic.

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t worry. Brooklynwx will be here soon posting 10 different maps showing how an epic, historic, perfect, mind blowing, textbook KU pattern with true arctic cold and massive blocking from the equator to the North Pole is coming for us in March

there is no support for that, so there is no reason why I would do that... there will be opportunities for snow through the 25th, then a hiatus until perhaps mid-March? the evolution has certainly changed for the worse, no mincing words there. i don't just make shit up

however, no reason to be an asshole about it, either. i also wasn't the only one getting excited about the upcoming pattern. there was widespread excitement about it. it made sense in so many ways, but the storm that dropped 6-12" over a wide swath of the Northeast (which you persistently shit all over, mind you), "ruined it." i guess it's ok that the classic pattern got ruined by a SECS. one in the hand is worth two in the bush

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know.. I added this to clear up, " I was referring to the pre-calculating, 'set the coffee down' in preparation like a box of kleenex and lotion types.  The internet also attracts those seekers - "

Yea, its about cognitive skills...they are all intertwined and intra supportive (or not) of one another...for instance, distress tolerance is one cognitive skill that really factors into impulse control. If you have the ability to sit with an unpleasant thought/emotion and tolerate it, then you are better equipped to allow it to pass without acting on it. Less distress tolerance, then you will act out. Acceptance is another...the ability to accept an unpleasant reality and not waste energy ruminating on it. You can see how I could make a fortune running a weather weenie  DTB clinic

DBT packages all of these skills into a nice, neat little box with a bow on it.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

30 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

as you know way better than me, these situations sometimes surprise upside.  4" would be a huge win, in a practical sense.

I'd love to get 4" here. That's enough to justify getting the tractor/loader out on the drive, and I see some snow piles out my window right now that are in desperate need of supplementation.