It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I need over 100" to catch 07-08.

you at 40?  I think I'm at 34.

[dendrite]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

you at 40?  I think I'm at 34.

Something like that. Upper 30s. I'm not home to add it up.

[dryslot]

There is no way i'm getting 48.7" to match last year, I don't even think i beat the worst year of 2009-10 at 55.8" sitting here at 37.6".

[Henry's Weather]

People hate on pessimists not because they’re wrong (since a lack of significant wintry weather is always more likely than significant wintry weather), but because their bias is clear, and because it is also clear that they relish the negative response from the hopefuls.

Two facts: people who post here hope for snow. And, snow events are becoming more infrequent. Therefore, performative, inert pessimism is more accurate than naive optimism over the long run. 
 

However, since the realities I mentioned above are already implicit in this endeavor, dispositional pessimists, though they end up being right more often, are “raining on this particular parade”. To extend the analogy, you don’t have to go to a Red Sox bar with a Yankees cap on, even if the reality of the game is independent of what clothes you wear. The truth is: recreational weather discussion is motivated by hope for certain outcomes, and doomers will frequently “wear the hat” of the objective observer to rile up the subjective hopefuls, but often these people, like @jbenedet, make woeful predictions to serve the God of pessimism. The motivation becomes to frustrate the hopefuls, not to make correct forecasts.

It is possible to be a pessimist and also hold yourself to an objective standard of truth. The same is true for optimists or hopefuls. The reason why @40/70 Benchmark gets more respect on this board than someone like Omega or the Pope is because he releases outlooks and then grades himself on how accurate they were, even if it is clear that he wants a specific outcome.

17 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

fyp

 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

There is no way i'm getting 48.7" to match last year, I don't even think i beat the worst year of 2009-10 at 55.8" sitting here at 37.6".

What did you have in 15-16?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

What did you have in 15-16?

Actually, It would be that year, 50.10" not sure we can get to that either, My biggest storm has been 7.5" this season.

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Think of this. I still need 1.4” to catch last season’s lofty 12.5” total. 

I finished last year with almost the same amount as you(12.3”).  I knew I’d break last years disaster season here(made the call in November..which wasn’t hard when I  average 50”), and I did with yesterdays 12.5” snow.  So I’m up to 23.5” on the season. Still a Rat season so far, but “doubling” last years final total is of some consolation.   
 

I did call for average snow this season here, that’s probably not gonna happen, unless we land a whopper(which is possible), but even if we can get a couple 3-6”ers it would be out of Rat territory as far as total accumulation goes here.   But if we whiff for the next month, it’s a rat, but a little better rat than last season was.  

[CoastalWx]

15-16 seems like 95-96 compared to this season here.

[Kitz Craver]

Not that it matters much, but NAM likes CNE/NNE for the clipper. Dusting to 1” south

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

People hate on pessimists not because they’re wrong (since a lack of significant wintry weather is always more likely than significant wintry weather), but because their bias is clear, and because it is also clear that they relish the negative response from the hopefuls.

Two facts: people who post here hope for snow. And, snow events are becoming more infrequent. Therefore, performative, inert pessimism is more accurate than naive optimism over the long run. 
 

However, since the realities I mentioned above are already implicit in this endeavor, dispositional pessimists, though they end up being right more often, are “raining on this particular parade”. To extend the analogy, you don’t have to go to a Red Sox bar with a Yankees cap on, even if the reality of the game is independent of what clothes you wear. The truth is: recreational weather discussion is motivated by hope for certain outcomes, and doomers will frequently “wear the hat” of the objective observer to rile up the subjective hopefuls, but often these people, like @jbenedet, make woeful predictions to serve the God of pessimism. The motivation becomes to frustrate the hopefuls, not to make correct forecasts.

It is possible to be a pessimist and also hold yourself to an objective standard of truth. The same is true for optimists or hopefuls. The reason why @40/70 Benchmark gets more respect on this board than someone like Omega or the Pope is because he releases outlooks and then grades himself on how accurate they were, even if it is clear that he wants a specific outcome.

 

To be perfectly honest, the snowfall stuff has a lot of luck involved.....I honestly feel like my past couple of efforts have been better than some of my "hits" in terms of snowfall earlier in my "career". Last year, I think I hit just about every index for the DM period wintin .30.....but since it didn't snow, its viewed as a bust. Will need to wait for the end to know, but this year is along the same lines, though admittedly it will be much warmer than I had. However, its been much warmer than every issued outlook I have seen...even raindance. Sure, you will have people claiming to have "nailed" it pulling up a random quote from October, but I only count published efforts. Its difficult to forecast an extreme anomaly on a seasonal scale that are usually derived from a composite of analogs. This is why you don't normally see exceedingly low pressures on a day 10 ensemble mean.

[dryslot]

I just want 2 more weeks, I'll be done riding and won't care what happens after that, I'll be getting ready for fishing season.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Actually, It would be that year, 50.10" not sure we can get to that either, My biggest storm has been 7.5" this season.

15-16 I remember the County getting totally wiped out in the beginning of presidents week, with a warm monster Rainer, that took em down to grass.  They recovered a couple weeks later, and I went up and got a decent trip in actually on March 5th.  But that was my only trip that winter.  So it sucked that year too. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Not that it matters much, but NAM likes CNE/NNE for the clipper. Dusting to 1” south

If its on Saturday, then fine...but I am out on any more nusiance varitety stuff during the week. I am at the point where it just like "get out of my face with that shit". 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

To be perfectly honest, the snowfall stuff has a lot of luck involved.....I honestly feel like my past couple of efforts have been better than some of my "hits" in terms of snowfall earlier in my "career". I think I hit just about every index for the DM period wintin .30.....but since it didn't snow, its viewed as a bust. Will need to wait for the end to know, but this year is along the same lines, though admittedly it will be much warmer than I had. However, its been much warmer than every issued outlook I have seen...even raindance. Sure, you will have people claiming to have "nailed" it pulling up a randomn quote from October, but I only count published efforts. Its difficult to forecast an extreme anomaly on a seasonal scale that I usually derived form a composite of analogs. This is why you don't normally see exceedingly low pressures on a day 10 ensemble mean.

There is so much that gets lost along the chain of large-scale synoptic facts -> small-scale sensible weather impact. I think what is keeping you making these outcome-specific forecasts is the high from predicting the specifics pretty accurately for 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2017-18. That sort of intellectual satisfaction is highly appealing.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

15-16 I remember the County getting totally wiped out in the beginning of presidents week, with a warm monster Rainer, that took em down to grass.  They recovered a couple weeks later, and I went up and got a decent trip in actually on March 5th.  But that was my only trip that winter.  So it sucked that year too. 

Looking at webcams this morning, Jackman and the Rangeley area are getting snow squalls.

[Henry's Weather]

There’s hardly any satisfaction in predicting an index mean, when it doesn’t pertain to sensible weather outcomes

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If its on Saturday, then fine...but I am out on any more nusiance varitety stuff during the week. I am at the point where it just like "get out of my face with that shit". 

I absolutely get where you’re coming from

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

There is so much that gets lost along the chain of large-scale synoptic facts -> small-scale sensible weather impact. I think what is keeping you making these outcome-specific forecasts is the high from predicting the specifics pretty accurately for 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2017-18. That sort of intellectual satisfaction is highly appealing.

The high of being right coupled with the joy of the experience of the snow is awesome. Right....but its frustrating when you miss.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

There’s hardly any satisfaction in predicting an index mean, when it doesn’t pertain to sensible weather outcomes

I disagree....there is more skill involved in that. The snowfall rages, as fun as they are, is largely luck.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The high of being right coupled with the joy of the experience of the snow is awesome. Right....but its frustrating when you miss.

I personally think it’s better to make predictions and see how they fare against reality than to never make predictions because of the inevitability of being wrong in some way. I think more is learned from trial and error than no trial at all. I think it’s a trait related to psychological conscientiousness, if I had to speculate

[weatherwiz]

Tomorrow night could certainly overperform I think. NAM has the s/w amplifying as it moves across the region. Some pretty steep lapse rates involved too. Could be some hefty snow squalls. Maybe even some thunder/lightning across Pennsylvania with squalls which could propagate across southern New England. I could see some spots picking up 1-2''. 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree....there is more skill involved in that. The snowfall rages, as fun as they are, is largely luck.

From an intellectual basis, sure, but calling a winter storm window and receiving a KU during that window must also be immensely gratifying. But sure, ideally you would nest the correct sensible weather prediction in an accurate assessment of the long-wave pattern and its flux

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Tomorrow night could certainly overperform I think. NAM has the s/w amplifying as it moves across the region. Some pretty steep lapse rates involved too. Could be some hefty snow squalls. Maybe even some thunder/lightning across Pennsylvania with squalls which could propagate across southern New England. I could see some spots picking up 1-2''. 

That would be nice…add to a thick pack here. Cold deep winter feeling morning here with fresh snow cover, and a breeze that was adding to the feel.  

[NW_of_GYX]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

15-16 I remember the County getting totally wiped out in the beginning of presidents week, with a warm monster Rainer, that took em down to grass.  They recovered a couple weeks later, and I went up and got a decent trip in actually on March 5th.  But that was my only trip that winter.  So it sucked that year too. 

Big gradient that year in the St John valley. I went up to Ft Kent for work last week of March and there was no snow on the ground through Ashland and then boom as soon as you can over the hill on 11 past eagle lake it was full on winter with deep pack. Snowed 7” first day we were there and we managed to sneak out of work and ski the t bar at Lonsome pines in the best conditions I had all year on March 29. 

[NW_of_GYX]

I’ll be tracking right into April for the mountains to my NW. weeklies, ensembles, shmegma won’t change that 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

That would be nice…add to a thick pack here. Cold deep winter feeling morning here with fresh snow cover, and a breeze that was adding to the feel.  

Yeah I stepped outside like 30 minutes ago to grab a package...it certainly felt like winter. While I don't have much of a snow pack here I am loving today. Despite the cold/wind the sun makes it much better. 

[Lava Rock]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I just want 2 more weeks, I'll be done riding and won't care what happens after that, I'll be getting ready for fishing season.

it's crazy just reading that as if we've had a decent season. The season really didn't get really rolling until middle of Jan, so we've had barely 4wks of rideable trails and here we are begging for something to round it out. An absolute shit sandwich of a season.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I personally think it’s better to make predictions and see how they fare against reality than to never make predictions because of the inevitability of being wrong in some way. I think more is learned from trial and error than no trial at all. I think it’s a trait related to psychological conscientiousness, if I had to speculate

Its such a worthwhile endeavor because its such a great avenue for personal enrichment...regardless of outcome. Sure, you get some people that shit on you when you are wrong, but its normally 2 types of people and its inwardly driven.

1) People who also partake in the effort themselves, and are either very insecure and/or dissatisfied with a certain aspect(s) of their own lives and project that onto my effort instead of the mirror.

2) People who would like to engage in the effort themselves as the ultimate means of expression and undersanding of their life long passion. But alas, just can not get over the ambivalence barrier to committing to such an effort, and reconicle that fact by resenting the efforts of those who do so out resentment and subconcious envy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

From an intellectual basis, sure, but calling a winter storm window and receiving a KU during that window must also be immensely gratifying. But sure, ideally you would nest the correct sensible weather prediction in an accurate assessment of the long-wave pattern and its flux

Yes.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

People hate on pessimists not because they’re wrong (since a lack of significant wintry weather is always more likely than significant wintry weather), but because their bias is clear, and because it is also clear that they relish the negative response from the hopefuls.

Two facts: people who post here hope for snow. And, snow events are becoming more infrequent. Therefore, performative, inert pessimism is more accurate than naive optimism over the long run. 
 

However, since the realities I mentioned above are already implicit in this endeavor, dispositional pessimists, though they end up being right more often, are “raining on this particular parade”. To extend the analogy, you don’t have to go to a Red Sox bar with a Yankees cap on, even if the reality of the game is independent of what clothes you wear. The truth is: recreational weather discussion is motivated by hope for certain outcomes, and doomers will frequently “wear the hat” of the objective observer to rile up the subjective hopefuls, but often these people, like @jbenedet, make woeful predictions to serve the God of pessimism. The motivation becomes to frustrate the hopefuls, not to make correct forecasts.

It is possible to be a pessimist and also hold yourself to an objective standard of truth. The same is true for optimists or hopefuls. The reason why @40/70 Benchmark gets more respect on this board than someone like Omega or the Pope is because he releases outlooks and then grades himself on how accurate they were, even if it is clear that he wants a specific outcome.

 

Just adding to your philosophy ...  anyone that opposes anything in reality ( really), is not "right"   if/when they do not provide logic to support their basis - which seldom happens. That's a red flag - insufficient corroborative evidence to frame lucidity.

If/when they are providing proofs that at minimum ...withstand basic arithmetic of clad meteorological concepts and application, others would be more accepting of their position. 

Somewhere in the pessimists of this red flag ilk, there may be a semblance of persistence based reasoning - but it's a default that fails if that's the case.  We just had two 10-15" snow events:  Jan 7 ... Feb 13.  Collectively, those of fair/objective outlook correctly ferreted those events out of the various guidance and techniques therein.  I don't recall any other storms this year that failed as badly as the pessimists failed to correctly claim they would not happen. 

The score is 2-0.

...  So they are not righteous, out of box.  

It's obvious that they have some spectrum related problem relating to other's and group modes of thinking- and this unfortunatley provides them some sandbox within which they can constantly experiment with their own dysfunctionality.

Simply stop engaging with the red-flaggers.  You don't even have to set them on ignore.  Just do that anyway...

problem solved.   You'll know when you are encountering worth-while con, or pro... either way.  That's what you engage with.

I realize there are some post adolescence maturation types in here... but a lot of this garbage back and forth is coming from middle age and elder users that seem to have trouble with this.