qg_omega Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 /End Winter. 3 months has become two weeks, sad times 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, qg_omega said: /End Winter. 3 months has become two weeks, sad times I have no clue why people even pay attention to the weeklies and long range forecasting past 240 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue why people even pay attention to the weeklies and long range forecasting past 240 hours. Well, you only post them when they are good and he only posts them when they are like that. 2 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, you only post whem when they are good and he only posts them when they are like that. We need the MJOmega ensemble 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I have no issue with that particular edition of the weekly product, though..verification scroes not withstanding, that is reflective of my thoughts on March dating back to last fall. Winter is over after one more swing at the winter-blitz KU pinata, save a rogue bowling ball- Then its onto the draft and post seasonal eval in May for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: We need the MJOmega ensemble I should make a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Of course March will be the one month I nail with surgical precision....take that to the bank. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I should make a model The initialization grid would consist of a dozen donuts and a grimey Mets cap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The initialization grid would consist of a dozen donuts and a grimey Mets cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Clippa, Better then nothing, Heading up to NW Maine on thursday. Here is BTV's version. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MJO812 said: The resolution would look like that paper bag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: At least they invest in the on field product, as misquided as the allocation of said resources may be. I'll trade you Henry for Cohen and an immense decadal snowfall defecit to be named later? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Of course March will be the one month a nail with surgical precision....take that to the bank. I’m locking in the 35° white rainer on tax day right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The signal is there for the 24th. And we know it's a guess at this point. Snoozefest otherwise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The signal is there for the 24th. And we know it's a guess at this point. Snoozefest otherwise. I won't be suprised either way...on the one hand, this is the decade of what can do wrong, does. But on the other hand, I have a tough time buying that I finish under 40" in a basin-wide el Nino that is not prohibitively strong and featured a good deal of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I could get 18" of snowfall, and this winter would still be just on par with the super, 1997-1998 non-winter el Nino. Think about that- A 30"-spot would put me on par with the 1982-1983 super el Nino...and this year has had more blocking than both. I need about 9" to catch 1973 and 7.5" for 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, definitely still there. By the way ... I agreed with you yesterday ( whether you were just being snarky or not -) re the tail end of the month. To preface that potential ( on the warm side ), we live now in an era where the planet has proven, time and time again over recent decade(s) that it is "spring loaded" so to speak. Any reasons for a region's temperature anomalies to become positive, they do so tending to exceed both leading modeling indicators ( synergistic heat burst phenomenon ), and/or no problem above climate (relative to season) just in general. This could fade ... but it might not: A positive +EPO --> toward a -PNA ( which sets in as whatever on the 24th is heeling out of the continent), in tandem after the 24th, that would appear to be in the least excuse imagined opportunity for exceeding. I will note... some 4 or 5 of the Feb and Mars going back over the last decade.5 have hosted an absurdly warm occurrence. Day time temperatures some 25 to even 35 above normal. Objective acceptance of all factors above, I don't have a problem with attempting an early guess at warm anomalies over the eastern continent from ~28th - the first week of March. Furthermore, if one is looking for a table-set pattern for igniting a synergistic heat burst ( absurdness ), present longer range telecon projections, which show up nicely in the ens spatial layouts, too ... Well, one can fight these queues if they want. But I choose not to be a f'ing idiot biased nimrod manic user of modeling dope, because I've created some sort of escapism in this chart surfing web realm, where such reality offends my construction. Lol There are two aspects ( to me ) that are notable about the next 3 weeks. -- Whether an important system continues to emerge ooa the 24th -- Whether a daisy pusher warm up sets in thereafter, and whether this might even prelude a "warm burst" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: By the way ... I agreed with you yesterday ( whether you were just being snarky or not -) re the tail end of the month. To preface that potential ( on the warm side ), we live now in an era where the planet has proven, time and time again over recent decade(s) that it is "spring loaded" so to speak. Any reasons for a region's temperature anomalies to become positive, they do so tending to exceed both leading modeling indicators ( synergistic heat burst phenomenon ), and/or no problem above climate (relative to season) just in general. This could fade ... but it might not: A positive +EPO --> toward a -PNA ( which sets in as whatever on the 24th is heeling out of the continent), in tandem after the 24th, that would appear to be in the least excuse imagined opportunity for exceeding. I will note... some 4 or 5 of the Feb and Mars going back over the last decade.5 have hosted an absurdly warm occurrence. Day time temperatures some 25 to even 35 above normal. Objective acceptance of all factors above, I don't have a problem with attempting an early guess at warm anomalies over the eastern continent from ~28th - the first week of March. Furthermore, if one is looking for a table-set pattern for igniting a synergistic heat burst ( absurdness ), present longer range telecon projections, which show up nicely in the ens spatial layouts, too ... Well, one can fight these queues if they want. But I choose not to be a f'ing idiot biased nimrod manic user of modeling dope, because I've created some sort of escapism in this chart surfing web realm, where such reality offends my construction. Lol There are two aspects ( to me ) that are notable about the next 3 weeks. -- Whether an important system continues to emerge ooa the 24th -- Whether a daisy pusher warm up sets in thereafter, and whether this might even prelude a "warm burst" I was/am/have been dead serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Winter has been sucking here, but if it makes you feel any better, check out the current modeled snow depth in the Midwest. I know these maps aren't perfect, but - I'm mean, just wow. Absolutely brutal. The really incredible part is the UP of Michigan. That’s snow heaven. I’m sure they average like a 50” snow depth in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The really incredible part is the UP of Michigan. That’s snow heaven. I’m sure they average like a 50” snow depth in February. Brutal for industries that rely on snow/cold/ice cover. Almost every station across the US has below normal seasonal snowfall this year... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue why people even pay attention to the weeklies and long range forecasting past 240 hours. qg schmegma's posts and even respond to them fyp 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The really incredible part is the UP of Michigan. That’s snow heaven. I’m sure they average like a 50” snow depth in February. I think the avg this time of year around those reporting stations is 30”ish. This looks a little worse than 11-12 was on this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 That EPS look would be darn mild heading late month into Morch. No snow and increasing nape angle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 0.8" new this morning, pleasant surprise, helps to cover up some of the ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I could get 18" of snowfall, and this winter would still be just on par with the super, 1997-1998 non-winter el Nino. Think about that- A 30"-spot would put me on par with the 1982-1983 super el Nino...and this year has had more blocking than both. I need about 9" to catch 1973 and 7.5" for 2016. Think of this. I still need 1.4” to catch last season’s lofty 12.5” total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: 0.8" new this morning, pleasant surprise, helps to cover up some of the ugly. Pretty “cold” too. Feels like deep winter with wind chills near 0F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Think of this. I still need 1.4” to catch last season’s lofty 12.5” total. I need 11.5" to catch last season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Hoping the mesos beef up the clipper for tomorrow night. It happens sometimes. Just getting a few inches and a feel of winter for the next 2 weeks would be great...before my gelid nape warms at the end of the month. I would love an early spring, but lets winter a bit first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That EPS look would be darn mild heading late month into Morch. No snow and increasing nape angle. West trough east ridge. Torch it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I need over 100" to catch 07-08. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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