It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

HAHAHA ... and here it only took,  ... 15 years of engagement?  

Like Will said, its much worse than it was when I joined in the fall of 2006...especially the last several years.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Nammy

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like Will said, its much worse than it was when I joined in the fall of 2006...especially the last several years.

Yep. I think Tip is correct it’s always been there to some extent…it’s just gotten worse. 
 

Anyways, I digress. I agree with Tip that there is some “interesting” potential from 1/30ish to the first week of February. It’s not favored, but some of these extremely meridional solutions with potent shortwaves riding down the east side of that ridge (almost a pseudo omega block) can blow up with little warning. They aren’t necessarily events that you track from a full week out. Partially because the source of said shortwaves are basically in a data-void area…or at least in an area where satellite data gets very distorted due to the very low tropopause up near the pole. These aren’t originating out in the pacific like usual. 

[CoastalWx]

53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Probably "as is"  ..sure.   But that "ridge" could end up being less of a full latitude R-wave signature, and more of a blocking node as we get closer - if that happens, we relax the field underneath. That's what happened in the early Feb days of 1978.  I saw 06z GFS and remembered other guidance taking turns ( more or less...) and then it dawned on me - wait a sec.   Low and behold, it's number 2 on the CPCs list ... umm... not shit.

I'm just speculating here. This is not a forecast.  I'm also not really trying to up the potency of the d-drip ( LOL ) either.  It's just that that we're not making this shit up - CPCs has it there because it is true.   Now... granted the analog has that on the 8th, which was after that storied event was already winding down, ... the 'idea' of it is certainly similar genetics.

 

Yeah perhaps following whatever comes about. I'm still not enthused with the look overall though into the 10th or so. Kind of riding the line there for awhile. 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its largely due to social media IMHO....its fostering an increased proclivitry towards iimpulsivity and instant gratification, which is inimical to critical thinking and conducive to an increased tendency to make perfunctory judegements.

I was about to make the same point, but I agree. A lot of us post from mobile now too and are juggling 10 things at once. Get the post out fast and first rather than sit down at the PC and type out a longer, quality response. But we’re in the tl;dr generation now and I’m often as guilty as everyone else. 

But the continuous whining posts are the worst. We don’t live in Valdez. The 90s had some great years, but we had a lot of winter rain that decade too. Feb 2015s are unicorns. 

[brooklynwx99]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have noticed that the inability to engaged in nuanced thought is one of the most prevalent issues on this forum.

BPD ass forum

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. I think Tip is correct it’s always been there to some extent…it’s just gotten worse. 
 

Anyways, I digress. I agree with Tip that there is some “interesting” potential from 1/30ish to the first week of February. It’s not favored, but some of these extremely meridional solutions with potent shortwaves riding down the east side of that ridge (almost a pseudo omega block) can blow up with little warning. They aren’t necessarily events that you track from a full week out. Partially because the source of said shortwaves are basically in a data-void area…or at least in an area where satellite data gets very distorted due to the very low tropopause up near the pole. These aren’t originating out in the pacific like usual. 

in my experience models seem to usually overdue the extremely meridinol solutions , as I’m usually focused on the east side where the energy dives south , i think I recall these more prevalent in the 5-8 day range and  than they become less powerful or “southward diving” or as we get inside 5 days . I wish I could articulate this better 

Is there anything to look for that usually coincides with these actually becoming that meridonal, regardless of wether it tracks perfectly for us 

 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I was about to make the same point, but I agree. A lot of us post from mobile now too and are juggling 10 things at once. Get the post out fast and first rather than sit down at the PC and type out a longer, quality response. But we’re in the tl;dr generation now and I’m often as guilty as everyone else. 

But the continuous whining posts are the worst. We don’t live in Valdez. The 90s had some great years, but we had a lot of winter rain that decade too. Feb 2015s are unicorns. 

speaking for NYC specifically, there were three winters over 30” from 1970-2000. three!!

there have been 13 winters over 30” since 2000. five in a row from 2013-2017

the whole “it doesn’t snow as much anymore” argument is BS. there’s just more variance, so when you strike out, you’re at a higher risk of a true dud rather than your standard blah winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I was about to make the same point, but I agree. A lot of us post from mobile now too and are juggling 10 things at once. Get the post out fast and first rather than sit down at the PC and type out a longer, quality response. But we’re in the tl;dr generation now and I’m often as guilty as everyone else. 

But the continuous whining posts are the worst. We don’t live in Valdez. The 90s had some great years, but we had a lot of winter rain that decade too. Feb 2015s are unicorns. 

Yea, I wish @Typhoon Tipwould take the time to articulate himself more thoroughly.

[CoastalWx]

It used to snow. 

[SJonesWX]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its largely due to social media IMHO....its fostering an increased proclivitry towards iimpulsivity and instant gratification, which is inimical to critical thinking and conducive to an increased tendency to make perfunctory judegements.

@40/70 Benchmark I think @Typhoon Tip stole your login info.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I wish @Typhoon Tipwould take the time to articulate himself more thoroughly.

 

6 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

@40/70 Benchmark I think @Typhoon Tip stole your login info.

Little too conscise haha

[mahk_webstah]

16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

in my experience models seem to usually overdue the extremely meridinol solutions , as I’m usually focused on the east side where the energy dives south , i think I recall these more prevalent in the 5-8 day range and  than they become less powerful or “southward diving” or as we get inside 5 days . I wish I could articulate this better 

Is there anything to look for that usually coincides with these actually becoming that meridonal, regardless of wether it tracks perfectly for us 

 

wasn't the "It Ain't Happening James" storm one that had a strong meridional component and we thought the rockies ridge was too far east and it would be out to sea?  Or was that Boxing Day?  I can't remember....

My point being that in extreme meridional set ups, if we get a fairly small adjustment the result can be very different.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

wasn't the "It Ain't Happening James" storm one that had a strong meridional component and we thought the rockies ridge was too far east and it would be out to sea?  Or was that Boxing Day?  I can't remember....

My point being that in extreme meridional set ups, if we get a fairly small adjustment the result can be very different.

I’d like to know as well 

 

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I was about to make the same point, but I agree. A lot of us post from mobile now too and are juggling 10 things at once. Get the post out fast and first rather than sit down at the PC and type out a longer, quality response. But we’re in the tl;dr generation now and I’m often as guilty as everyone else. 

But the continuous whining posts are the worst. We don’t live in Valdez. The 90s had some great years, but we had a lot of winter rain that decade too. Feb 2015s are unicorns. 

I feel like a lot of people memory-holed the late 1990s…that was a sneaky awful stretch if you like snow and cold. 
 

Anyways, if I can grab back to back 20”+ months (January starting to look like it might get there) with maybe one decent event in March, it would be hard to call this winter a total ratter. The warmth has sucked but it’s been active with plenty to track. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

wasn't the "It Ain't Happening James" storm one that had a strong meridional component and we thought the rockies ridge was too far east and it would be out to sea?  Or was that Boxing Day?  I can't remember....

My point being that in extreme meridional set ups, if we get a fairly small adjustment the result can be very different.

Yes you are correct…it didn’t have the room to amplify because of the 1/24 storm (that’s why Scooter was throwing furniture in his basement when that 1/24 storm amplified to hit us) and the ridge was already a bit too far east….or so we thought at the time. 

[CoastalWx]

That event was a fluke. I stand by my rage. That would have been kicked OTS 99/100 times. That was just one of the several events that found every possible way to crush.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What year was that system 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What year was that system 

Jan 2015.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its largely due to social media IMHO....its fostering an increased proclivitry towards iimpulsivity and instant gratification, which is inimical to critical thinking and conducive to an increased tendency to make perfunctory judegements.

It's an interesting plug into a field that is non -earth sciences related, but is human sociological - ...the irony, to understand the following op-ed requires nuanced open-mindedness.

I call it "the great socio-technological experiment" 

Basics:  at no point in human evolutionary past has the advent of technology been so effective at modulating lives at a personal level, than these last 100 ...and in particular, 50 years.  And that change in the populate, integrates the populous.

Where this goes in terms of cause-and-effect is about as complex a field as Quantum Mechanics - if one understands at a rudimentary level, fraught with "uncertainty"   ( lol ).  

There are pros and cons in how technology  "enhances" ... but is is definitely enhancing for better or worse. There's a vast envelope of subtle ways in which that is evidence that ... pretty much given the daily life inside the Industrial bubble ... no one is set up to even consider. That, and the process is so gradual.  Until the gross version of that enhancing comes along ... Like, "social acceptable boundaries" are no longer sufficient to stop a gun weilding mad person.  Or, besieging new information in a overstimulated population leads to fear --> contraction of belief systems --> nationalistic modes and traditional non/progressive acceptance ...

And it is not just a personal scaling -related matter.  It's taking place at a species level. There are feed backs like brain dimensional shrinkage.   Yeah dude.  Capacity in general and lowering I.Q.s. There's papers about this.  Adding failure of common intellect, there's less hope that a general bulk populous would stop a village idiot from rising to power ( )

See, the problem is an evolutionary one. At least as far as what evolution means to us. It's creating a "paradoxical dilemma" of sorts.  Simply put, evolution leads inexorably to the inability to evolve

Simply put, dumbing down.

I like that. Conveniences lower the "weight training" of a "species' muscle."     Through the arrival applied innovation(s) softening the challenges needed be overcome in order to survive, we unwittingly slow, if not stopss, the Darwinian crucible.  It's function was not to provide us with the ability to endow ourselves with the best orgasms of reality we can find - that's just how we are apparently using it.  Darwinian motif not only purifies over successive generations of trial and error ( where failures fade and successes breed), but through that challenge emerged newer sophistication and newly arriving aptitude(s).  The decline in this latter aspect is symptomatically described by the subtle example of "losing the ability to nuance" 

Everything in nature ( I've come to find ...) is really analogical to some other aspect.  Just like a single electron goes around a proton ... planets go around starts.   These are not coincidences. The Universe is the greatest con artist in a way. The idea here is that we are distracted from seeing it; as nature merely cloaks the same model underneath colorful cloths, the pretty patterns actually blind us from seeing the reprisal of perhaps just a handful of original motifs. 

When we start thinking along these lines ... it really opens up interesting speculations.  Like take the fact that 99% of all species that Earth has ever manifested, no longer exist.  Perhaps our example here on earth is a reprisal of some yet to be determined fact that say ... 99% of all species the cosmos has ever created also no longer exist.   

An explanation for the "Fermian Paradox" might fall out of that ( the paradox goes: 'if the cosmos is teaming with intelligent life, or life at all, where is everybody').  Perhaps they've all simply evolved themselves right out their own evolution.  Creepy.    Aside from the obvious, that does not bode well for any species in existence right now ( lol ), that might just be an analog for what is out there in the cosmos.  The universe is nothing more than a great cemetery.

One species on Earth ( that we know of empirically ) has ever been capable of asking these questions, much less created technology capable of plumbing the incomprehensible scales of time and space in an attempt to answer the question as to whether we are alone in this thing.  Hm? And, if they are passe',  what %age of those species were even technologically advanced?  

But ...here's a thing: ultimately we are dealing with numbers so incomprehensibly large they escape and affective/effective meaning ...so therefore, in any pragmatic sense, were are looking into infinities.   And by definition infinite probability insists that some other tech -advancing species like us ( more or less) must concurrently exist.  If 1% of the "cosmic life" still survives the "99% gauntlet,"   that 1% is still an incomprehensibly large number.  So this becomes as much a philosophy problem too.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah perhaps following whatever comes about. I'm still not enthused with the look overall though into the 10th or so. Kind of riding the line there for awhile. 

ha, yeah ... total honesty, me neither.    It's really juggling non-zero probabilities against the unsavory reality of NO probabilities.  LOL

Maybe theirs a modicum of solace in focusing instead on fleeting possibilities.

[Layman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I wish @Typhoon Tipwould take the time to articulate himself more thoroughly.

 

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's an interesting plug into a field that is non -earth sciences related, but is human sociological - ...the irony, to understand the following op-ed requires nuanced open-mindedness.

I call it "the great socio-technological experiment" 

Basics:  at no point in human evolutionary past has the advent of technology been so effective at modulating lives at a personal level, than these last 100 ...and in particular, 50 years.  And that change in the populate, integrates the populous.

Where this goes in terms of cause-and-effect is about as complex a field as Quantum Mechanics - if one understands at a rudimentary level, fraught with "uncertainty"   ( lol ).  

There are pros and cons in how technology  "enhances" ... but is is definitely enhancing for better or worse. There's a vast envelope of subtle ways in which that is evidence that ... pretty much given the daily life inside the Industrial bubble ... no one is set up to even consider. That, and the process is so gradual.  Until the gross version of that enhancing comes along ... Like, "social acceptable boundaries" are no longer sufficient to stop a gun weilding mad person.  Or, besieging new information in a overstimulated population leads to fear --> contraction of belief systems --> nationalistic modes and traditional non/progressive acceptance ...

And it is not just a personal scaling -related matter.  It's taking place at a species level. There are feed backs like brain dimensional shrinkage.   Yeah dude.  Capacity in general and lowering I.Q.s. There's papers about this.  Adding failure of common intellect, there's less hope that a general bulk populous would stop a village idiot from rising to power ( )

See, the problem is an evolutionary one. At least as far as what evolution means to us. It's creating a "paradoxical dilemma" of sorts.  Simply put, evolution leads inexorably to the inability to evolve

Simply put, dumbing down.

I like that. Conveniences lower the "weight training" of a "species' muscle."     Through the arrival applied innovation(s) softening the challenges needed be overcome in order to survive, we unwittingly slow, if not stopss, the Darwinian crucible.  It's function was not to provide us with the ability to endow ourselves with the best orgasms of reality we can find - that's just how we are apparently using it.  Darwinian motif not only purifies over successive generations of trial and error ( where failures fade and successes breed), but through that challenge emerged newer sophistication and newly arriving aptitude(s).  The decline in this latter aspect is symptomatically described by the subtle example of "losing the ability to nuance" 

Everything in nature ( I've come to find ...) is really analogical to some other aspect.  Just like a single electron goes around a proton ... planets go around starts.   These are not coincidences. The Universe is the greatest con artist in a way. The idea here is that we are distracted from seeing it; as nature merely cloaks the same model underneath colorful cloths, the pretty patterns actually blind us from seeing the reprisal of perhaps just a handful of original motifs. 

When we start thinking along these lines ... it really opens up interesting speculations.  Like take the fact that 99% of all species that Earth has ever manifested, no longer exist.  Perhaps our example here on earth is a reprisal of some yet to be determined fact that say ... 99% of all species the cosmos has ever created also no longer exist.   

An explanation for the "Fermian Paradox" might fall out of that ( the paradox goes: 'if the cosmos is teaming with intelligent life, or life at all, where is everybody').  Perhaps they've all simply evolved themselves right out their own evolution.  Creepy.    Aside from the obvious, that does not bode well for any species in existence right now ( lol ), that might just be an analog for what is out there in the cosmos.  The universe is nothing more than a great cemetery.

One species on Earth ( that we know of empirically ) has ever been capable of asking these questions, much less created technology capable of plumbing the incomprehensible scales of time and space in an attempt to answer the question as to whether we are alone in this thing.  Hm? And, if they are passe',  what %age of those species were even technologically advanced?  

But ...here's a thing: ultimately we are dealing with numbers so incomprehensibly large they escape and affective/effective meaning ...so therefore, in any pragmatic sense, were are looking into infinities.   And by definition infinite probability insists that some other tech -advancing species like us ( more or less) must concurrently exist.  If 1% of the "cosmic life" still survives the "99% gauntlet,"   that 1% is still an incomprehensibly large number.  So this becomes as much a philosophy problem too.

 

FYI @40/70 Benchmark, I blame you for this.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ha, yeah ... total honesty, me neither.    It's really juggling non-zero probabilities against the unsavory reality of NO probabilities.  LOL

Maybe theirs a modicum of solace in focusing instead on fleeting possibilities.

I do see how there could be potential for sure. I’m not totally zeroing out the chance. 

[ORH_wxman]

Ok that’s funny on the 12z GFS

 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ok that’s funny on the 12z GFS

 

yup, just rots there. I mean, it would make sense verbatim given the omega block. there's nowhere for that impulse to go

[UnitedWx]

12Z GFS trying for the Blizz of '78  TRACK on Feb 4th, backs the low right over Long Island. Obviously will change a thousand times between now and then

[Heisy]

Ok that’s funny on the 12z GFS
 

Fun to look at for now, multiple waves diving over the ridge lots of volatility ahead


.

[WeatherX]

Sign me up for that please!

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ok that’s funny on the 12z GFS

 

Got that right. Earlier evolutions had it shunted southeast

[CoastalWx]

Holy shit that run went wild.