Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Sitting at 39" STD. Gonna really need some help here soon because we're rapidly falling behind. Over two weeks with no measurable snow in the heart of climo in NNE snow country is bad, no way around it. 

 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

36.7" here, But i would rather see your area NW start cashing in, Its over before it even started for local riding and has been that way for a few years now, But lets get the foothills and mountains to get some, I would like to ride a few more weeks.

I'm sitting at 60", which is decent but as we know, it doesn't matter if it melts and snows again.  I need some semblance of cold and retention.  I think our club has groomed twice.  There was some riding up until Thursday or Friday of last week.  Its really limited now.  I think there is some that could still be salvaged but we need more than an inch or two from a couple of clippers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let's see how it looks next week. Love the period overall, but just can't anymore with the day 12 animations.

yeah i get it. it's been rough. just wait until you see the massive flat Aleutian ridge afterwards. in a strong Nino Feb! i mean, what the fuck

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I'm starting to look down the barrel of a .12 ga, I don't have a good feeling for much of anything the rest of this month, My back is sore from shoveling all the potential snow.

We went 24 days thru the middle of Dec with just 0.1" snow (and a boatload of rain), then had 30" in 5 storms over the next 18 days.  So far this month we've had a one-hour flurry on 2/1 plus some catpaws in Saturday's TS.  Would be nice to break this snow drought like it did in January.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can a brother get the NAM to be right?

Seriously. Nice clipper event and then it’s teeing up potential for Saturday. Would be nice to grab some events even if they aren’t huge. Hopefully we can time up a bigger one next week. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

State of the snowpack after surviving the onslaught of warm weather. Averaging 9.7" with 3.5" SWE (picture was the high measurement for the average). The south slope septic tank bare patch has spread like a disease though.

Still hearing the neighbors out on snowmobiles (though I believe the local club might have the actual trails closed right now?)

Hoping the clipper can overperform, but feeling a little pessimistic after the debacle that was this most recent storm. 

20240213_southscene.jpg

20240213_southwestscene.jpg

20240213_baldpatch.jpg

20240213_depth.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, normally, the fail mode in strong Nino Februarys is an overly oppressive GoAK low, not whatever the hell this is. this makes no sense

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-9121600.thumb.png.e35d76dd3f4f221168cbb5efdb3cc4b9.png

Been on the fake PNA all year, above fits the pattern very well and the above normal to much above March. This is top 5 warmest winter for the CONUS with many in the upper Midwest to NNE at the warmest DJF ever, why would that suddenly flip.  I said same to Ray in January and his response was a 500mb composite of past Nino’s

  • Like 3
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not following why folks saying Saturday is sunny. Thats a solid signal for a light .. perhaps moderate .. event 

Well I think one of the reasons is on WVIT, Ryan has us clear and sunny for the weekend. Weekend. No mention at all of a flake. Friday morning. However, Gil Simmons on WTNH talks about the chance of a snow event on Saturday. Very strange how one says it's a good possibility and the other says we're going to be sunny. It is very confusing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, normally, the fail mode in strong Nino Februarys is an overly oppressive GoAK low, not whatever the hell this is. this makes no sense

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-9121600.thumb.png.e35d76dd3f4f221168cbb5efdb3cc4b9.png

It probably won’t verify in the end.  The various ensembles have no idea what the MJO is gonna do the next few weeks so it’s likely the idea won’t be close to what actually happens 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Been on the fake PNA all year, above fits the pattern very well and the above normal to much above March. This is top 5 warmest winter for the CONUS with many in the upper Midwest to NNE at the warmest DJF ever, why would that suddenly flip.  I said same to Ray in January and his response was a 500mb composite of past Nino’s

You asked me to give a reason why the pattern would be different in February and that was my response.  I also made it clear why this year is more prone to Maritime forcing than other el Nino seasons. You always cherry pick quotes from people. The composite is what it is, but I also had years in there like 1995, 2007 and 1973 for a reason.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

More than doubled my season total today. Was at 11” for the season up to yesterday(horrid), and with the 12.5” today, it brings me up to 23.5”(much better), but I Average 50”, so about half way there.  

You are about in par with my season now relative to average.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No warmth to speak of though….your heading to Florida, so you’ll find it there. 

Yup.  Warmth, spring baseball, returning late month.  I’ve had it with this above normal temperature winter that doesn’t feel warm and every which way to not snow.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You asked me to give a reason why the pattern would be different in February and that was my response.  I also made it clear why this year is more prone to Maritime forcing than other el Nino seasons. You always cherry pick quotes from people. The composite is what it is, but I also had years in there like 1995, 2007 and 1973 for a reason.

was I wrong to push back on it, my reasoning was posted when we had that exchange in Jan

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's the warm west PAC/-PDO.

I think people forget El Niños can fail because of reasons other than the massive Aleutian vortex too.   91-92 94-95 and 06-07 all in essence failed for reasons other than that.  That said, none of those was anywhere near as strong as this one was 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...