WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, Hazey said: 0z Icon blows it up in the gulf of Maine. Nice s/w Don’t believe it…At this point all the modeling should be blown up… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 58 minutes ago, powderfreak said: A clipper would be welcomed. Still snowing on that frame too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Don’t believe it…At this point all the modeling should be blown up… We're all gonna be gun shy after this latest debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: We're all gonna be gun shy after this latest debacle. Omg yes. I don’t believe anything at the moment for Friday or Sunday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, WinterWolf said: Omg yes. I don’t believe anything at the moment for Friday or Sunday… Same here Gefs trending south for next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 gfs very very active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1-3” Thursday night and another 1-3” Sat Am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Many chances on the GFS run. Start to Finish, shortwaves a plenty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 hours ago, DavisStraight said: We're all gonna be gun shy after this latest debacle. Not really. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Not really. North country definitely needs some snow. All trails in central NH basically closed, except local club trails at elevation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The Thursday night clipper has been in my wunderground forecast for 3-4 days and the amount is increasing a bit. Around 2.5" now I think. I'm worried this one might go south as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said: North country definitely needs some snow. All trails in central NH basically closed, except local club trails at elevation Not seeing anything of any significance other then a couple clipper events that may end up to far east to be much help either right now for those areas, Maybe we can get the upslope machine going on some of this, But those areas need the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I know the folks in the other thread are focused on today, but seems like the 17th-25th has some potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 I know the folks in the other thread are focused on today, but seems like the 17th-25th has some potential.Every guidance has the coming pattern to a degreeSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I see nothing interesting. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 hours ago, Hazey said: 0z Icon blows it up in the gulf of Maine. Nice s/w Yeah it's going for that NJ model low idea ... perhaps biased slightly N of typical. It's when a flat wave/wind max at mid levels crosses over the native instability along that part of the M/A coast - it helps is there some identifiable baroclinicity in the region when that takes place. The result is fast moving quick developer. They can sometimes evolve into major events if they are rigorous enough, but usually they're limited to moderate but headline-able snow amts. 6" -ish ...maybe 8. That's what that looks like. That model had that idea on the 12z yesterday. Weakened/too late on the 18z ... But then it comes back even more impressive looking on the 00z. Back to weak and too late on the 06z. Seems there's a data sampling constraint going on there. Not sure how the ICON's grid is populated - they may not "pay for" the full suite. We have to remember, Euro and GFS ...these models purchase their sounding data from foreign sources - or they used to. Maybe Brian or someone would know if that is still the case or if they've created some other coop program ...etc. But as far as the ICON's last 24 hours of runs, the old 12 on 18 off 00z on 06z off strikes me as the old days of data compliment shadowing. Why am spending so much time on this model ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Sitting at 39" STD. Gonna really need some help here soon because we're rapidly falling behind. Over two weeks with no measurable snow in the heart of climo in NNE snow country is bad, no way around it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 sitting at 30.5 on the season, still way off of climo for here, but last 5 years are 35.5, 63.4, 37.4, 41.2...and to date 30.5. Would be happy with another 20" to at least get more than half of climo, but we'll see. One big one would really go along way to making moods better here... crazy to think the first 4 years after moving here, we had about 90" except for 15-16, which is the lowest since 90-91 &94-95. Believe it or not, the 80s data for here had 4 seasons over 100", and 1 close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 36 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Sitting at 39" STD. Gonna really need some help here soon because we're rapidly falling behind. Over two weeks with no measurable snow in the heart of climo in NNE snow country is bad, no way around it. Yep. No trace of snow here - let alone measurable - so far this month. Was up at Shawnee Thursday night, then again Sunday. Conditions got dramatically worse in between the two trips. This clipper will help but it'll all be pushed off by middle of next week with school vacation ski traffic. Really need a solid dump or 2 to get through the rest of ski season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Popping back in here from the storm thread. Are we back to discussing spring here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, tunafish said: Yep. No trace of snow here - let alone measurable - so far this month. Was up at Shawnee Thursday night, then again Sunday. Conditions got dramatically worse in between the two trips. This clipper will help but it'll all be pushed off by middle of next week with school vacation ski traffic. Really need a solid dump or 2 to get through the rest of ski season. barring any big storm (10"+), I wonder if Bridgton sled trails will reopen. We never even opened in Raymond/Casco and that's a 1st since we've lived here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: barring any big storm (10"+), I wonder if Bridgton sled trails will reopen. We never even opened in Raymond/Casco and that's a 1st since we've lived here talked with the president of the club last week. Same issue as last year, even with snow otg nothing ever froze and they had major water issues which they did their best to deal with. They're usually pretty eager but it will take another 10" to get it going is my guess. Hard to believe the work these clubs put in for seasons that last 3 weeks. Its been an epic bad stretch locally for trail riding. 18-19 was the last good season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, tunafish said: Yep. No trace of snow here - let alone measurable - so far this month. Was up at Shawnee Thursday night, then again Sunday. Conditions got dramatically worse in between the two trips. This clipper will help but it'll all be pushed off by middle of next week with school vacation ski traffic. Really need a solid dump or 2 to get through the rest of ski season. not good yesterday either. They will blow snow this week, have to the way things look on the hill right now with vacation week around the corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Popping back in here from the storm thread. Are we back to discussing spring here? Doesn't look very spring-like through the the 25th anyway - We'll see afterwards, but it is possible we'll see the hemisphere correct more +PNA as we near. As of recent telecon projections from all three sources, the PNA sags and go negative 25th + however ... as the MJO folk pointed out, there could be corrections in the making, "... there is some question as to whether this weakening is reflective of a disorganizing MJO or the removal of the 120-day mean which is strongly skewing the MJO signal to the right in RMM space. Upper-level velocity potential anomaly forecasts suggest the latter, which depict more coherent MJO moving forward...." "Western Hemisphere MJO events during late winter typically favor the development of anomalous mid-level troughing and colder than normal temperatures across many parts of central and eastern CONUS." There has been tepid success in coupling the MJO to large circulation manifolds... but, the latter season Nino climatology favors the left side of the RMM. It's some speculation, but if the wave is actually going to be stronger around the side ...that may begin/assist in modulating. We might be seeing that in the ens spatial layouts already - at least in the GEFs. There's a lowering hgt retrograde on this 12z mean back N of HA along the 35th/40th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 This winter isn’t fooling me anymore. She’s smelled like a rat since the beginning. I hoped she’d change, but nope. We move onto the nape days. Late week clippers look like crap for SNE. Whenever the primary is west of us, we ain’t snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Which by the way, after these critters move past later this week the 23/24th is now just emerging through the long range "coherency horizon" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Which by the way, after these critters move past later this week the 23/24th is now just emerging through the long range "coherency horizon" And what do you see Tippy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2/24 has some tepid support in the ensembles....OP GGEM liked it a lot, but thats an OP run....GEFS you can see have a weak signal, but the western ridge is there 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said: Sitting at 39" STD. Gonna really need some help here soon because we're rapidly falling behind. Over two weeks with no measurable snow in the heart of climo in NNE snow country is bad, no way around it. 36.7" here, But i would rather see your area NW start cashing in, Its over before it even started for local riding and has been that way for a few years now, But lets get the foothills and mountains to get some, I would like to ride a few more weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: And what do you see Tippy? Brooklyn' and Will and I were bouncing ideas back and forth last week ... we'd targeted 20th and 24th back whence. But back then, even the 20th was out side said coherence horizon - (expression I invented that just means the average range in which signals tend to take better form...). The 24th was 'analytic imagination' on where things would go... which believe it or not does have some non-zero value provided it isn't too Georgian in construct ( lol ) The GEFs have a really impressive 500 mb evolution, showing that the 20th actually sets up the 23rd/24th.. .There is an ephemeral trough deepening between HA and California around the 20th ... that can preceded/transmit a trough signal to West Va-ish ..the original 20th notion, but, it actually take a day and half to complete the transitive wave space forcing.. Thus, blah blah-blah blah popsicle headache later, said deepening results over the eastern continent, and is pretty nicely illustrated in the GEFs mean. You can even get a semblance of a negative mid tropospheric well lifting up along the eastern seaboard; from this range that vagueness is important because if/when fits the Date Line to west coast argument, which it does. I like the notions also put forth by the MJO desk yesterday, too - that can add some idea to the correction in the 12z to elevate the PNA, as being something that may be emerging and will positively feed back on this... interesting 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now