40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Shocking I'd love to just warm up later this month. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd love to just warm up later this month. We March '03? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: We March '03? I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Shocking It's over after this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks like snow Thursday night into Friday and another light event over the weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h. In addition to those two threats there’s also a threat showing up on the 22nd next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: We March '03? I was looking it up but didn't see anything. How was March 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think so. So you think we'll have a snowy March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I was looking it up but didn't see anything. How was March 2003? It had a few moderate events as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: So you think we'll have a snowy March? No. March 2003 was pretty mild, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Take my outlook and wipe your ass with it for February....sure, pattern looks good, but I just don't see it working out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h. Golly, gee whillickers....I sure am grateful for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like snow Thursday night into Friday and another light event over the weekend. I just want out, at this point. Fire up the draft. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just want out, at this point. Fire up the draft. By about the end of next week, I think we are in Go big or go home territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Kinda surprised this morning, had sun flurries on the way to workSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No. March 2003 was pretty mild, no? Not sure about temps...I know it was AN snow here. Perhaps Will has more insight? Maybe it's not a good analog seeing as that was a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h. I've noticed that. I love a clipper. If it is snow and snow, 2-4 in a fast moving clipper can be a lot of fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Golly, gee whillickers....I sure am grateful for that. Alright man....see you in April then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h. The last two run cycles of the operational GFS are carrying two of them, actually. 16th is being separated by the 18th by a general fast flow/higher volatility continent. These impulses are riding along where the ambient thickness gradient is getting rather steep down stream of the -EPO forcing.... That latter one for the 18.5th has kind of a sneaky NJ model look to it out of nowhere. Both these perturbations are below index coherency. I call those "sub-index" features... It just means events that take place because the synoptic restoring/forcing happens across domain spaces that are smaller so are 'hidden' in that sense. Teleconnectors are less useful by scale, and/or often lost entirely within the noise of ensemble distribution too. But if that trough sharpens a little more on the 18th one, that could easily become another fast movin' bigger player... That system between the 20th and 22nd is dubious but is also a new introduction along said gradient, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The pattern is getting to many on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: The last two run cycles of the operational GFS are carrying two of them, actually. 16th is being separated by the 18th by a general fast flow/higher volatility continent. These impulses are riding along where the ambient thickness gradient is getting rather steep down stream of the -EPO forcing.... That latter one for the 18.5th has kind of a sneaky NJ model look to it out of nowhere. Both these perturbations are below index coherency. I call those "sub-index" features... It just means events that take place because the synoptic restoring/forcing happens across domain spaces that are smaller so are 'hidden' in that sense. Teleconnectors are less useful by scale, and/or often lost entirely within the noise of ensemble distribution too. But if that trough sharpens a little more on the 18th one, that could easily become another fast movin' bigger player... That system between the 20th and 22nd is dubious but is also a new introduction along said gradient, too. There;s your NJ model low on the ICON....GFS was close at 06z, we'll see if it comes aboard at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There;s your NJ model low on the ICON....GFS was close at 06z, we'll see if it comes aboard at 12z. Boom! yeah we'll see... I love NJ Model lows ( as I'm sure you've probably gathered by now... LOL ). I mean I like them because they do happen ( for one...) from time to time, but they are kind of the last frontier of blind events in modeling. It's hard to get a significant event to approach with out at least "something" betraying its potential, when/if it is at planetary scales ( telecon this and that...etc) But NJ modelers can happen ( again ) beneath the index coherency because their domain is smaller - they're just lost in the noise. They tend to only expose < 5 days ... you're thinking you got the general tapestry of your mid range worked out well enough but oops. Some of those 1980s November storms are really good examples of this. Dec 2005 was an NJ-like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's over after this week ..but, but what happened to the epic pattern that you said was going to develop?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS juiced up the clipper this run...but the 2/18 threat looks weaker behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Going to need the clipper to cover up some bare ground up north after the torch this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS juiced up the clipper this run...but the 2/18 threat looks weaker behind it. 3 threats Friday / Sunday and next week. No warmups so pack will last awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Three of them in rapid succession on the gfs. Hopefully we can beef up one of them with a little inflow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Actually I may have spoke too soon on 2/18...that's still a decent look and close to the NJ model low that @Typhoon Tip and I were discussing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 46.3 at 1130. Hard to believe 8-12 on the way. Love new England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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