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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clipper for Thu night has been coming back stronger the last 24h. 

The last two run cycles of the operational GFS are carrying two of them, actually. 

16th is being separated by the 18th by a general fast flow/higher volatility continent. These impulses are riding along where the ambient thickness gradient is getting rather steep down stream of the -EPO forcing....

That latter one for the 18.5th has kind of a sneaky NJ model look to it out of nowhere.  Both these perturbations are below index coherency.  I call those "sub-index" features... It just means events that take place because the synoptic restoring/forcing happens across domain spaces that are smaller so are 'hidden' in that sense.  Teleconnectors are less useful by scale, and/or often lost entirely within the noise of ensemble distribution too.   

But if that trough sharpens a little more on the 18th one, that could easily become another fast movin' bigger player...  

That system between the 20th and 22nd is dubious but is also a new introduction along said gradient, too.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The last two run cycles of the operational GFS are carrying two of them, actually. 

16th is being separated by the 18th by a general fast flow/higher volatility continent. These impulses are riding along where the ambient thickness gradient is getting rather steep down stream of the -EPO forcing....

That latter one for the 18.5th has kind of a sneaky NJ model look to it out of nowhere.  Both these perturbations are below index coherency.  I call those "sub-index" features... It just means events that take place because the synoptic restoring/forcing happens across domain spaces that are smaller so are 'hidden' in that sense.  Teleconnectors are less useful by scale, and/or often lost entirely within the noise of ensemble distribution too.   

But if that trough sharpens a little more on the 18th one, that could easily become another fast movin' bigger player...  

That system between the 20th and 22nd is dubious but is also a new introduction along said gradient, too.

There;s your NJ model low on the ICON....GFS was close at 06z, we'll see if it comes aboard at 12z.

 

image.png.ff8a5b643822d815ed4b68c1965bfe20.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There;s your NJ model low on the ICON....GFS was close at 06z, we'll see if it comes aboard at 12z.

 

image.png.ff8a5b643822d815ed4b68c1965bfe20.png

 

 

Boom!

yeah we'll see...  I love NJ Model lows ( as I'm sure you've probably gathered by now... LOL ).  I mean I like them because they do happen ( for one...) from time to time, but they are kind of the last frontier of blind events in modeling. 

It's hard to get a significant event to approach with out at least "something" betraying its potential, when/if it is at planetary scales ( telecon this and that...etc) 

But NJ modelers can happen ( again ) beneath the index coherency because their domain is smaller - they're just lost in the noise.  They tend to only expose < 5 days ... you're thinking you got the general tapestry of your mid range worked out well enough but oops.  

Some of those 1980s November storms are really good examples of this.  Dec 2005 was an NJ-like

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