Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,168
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


Prismshine Productions
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve.

Expand  

Good…we did fine without it for a long time.  Very Overrated imo.  Let’s improve the pacific some, and take our chances.
 

 Hard to tell at this point how next year will unfold..let alone anything after that.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve.

Expand  

NNE should Be fine next winter with the Nina. It obviously can’t get any worst than this winter for that area. 
 

We are probably cooked down here if the PAC doesn’t improve 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s pretty easy to empirically check these spring claims. The mean temp increase for April/May since the middle 20th century is about 2F. 
 

We’ve definitely warmed. But in shorter timelines it will be a lot noisier. If you start from 12-15 years ago, then we have cooled in spring because we had some furnace springs like 2010, 2012, and even 2015 was a warm one after the historically cold Jan-Mar period. 
 

For anyone who grew up in the 1970s/1980s/1990s, they will remember colder springs because that period was colder than any period recently, individual years not withstanding. Unless you’re memory is etched in 1991 which was a record warm spring in many spots. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s pretty easy to empirically check these spring claims. The mean temp increase for April/May since the middle 20th century is about 2F. 
 

We’ve definitely warmed. But in shorter timelines it will be a lot noisier. If you start from 12-15 years ago, then we have cooled in spring because we had some furnace springs like 2010, 2012, and even 2015 was a warm one after the historically cold Jan-Mar period. 
 

For anyone who grew up in the 1970s/1980s/1990s, they will remember colder springs because that period was colder than any period recently, individual years not withstanding. Unless you’re memory is etched in 1991 which was a record warm spring in many spots. 

Expand  

Warm spring, and I still had some snow piles around town in June.

Nuts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:30 PM, WinterWolf said:

Good…we did fine without it for a long time.  Very Overrated imo.  Let’s improve the pacific some, and take our chances.
 

 Hard to tell at this point how next year will unfold..let alone anything after that.  

Expand  

Overrated, Yes. But I would still rather have it all things being equal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I know Cosgrove and Dick Tolleris had been going big winter . Did they ever pull the plug on that idea or sink in their ship? 

Expand  

DT pulled the plug like a week or two ago....last year he pulled the plug in December....he is more focused on data interpreation than long range predicitng, though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

90s were cold too. I remember that well. But man the 00s had some horrific ones. 2003 and 2005 will forever be remembered as complete disasters.

Expand  

2005 was the worst...I remmber that May, I was commuting my first year at UML...it was a blustery nor' easter with temps in the 40s like every weekend.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2005 was the worst...I remmber that May, I was commuting my first year at UML...it was a blustery nor' easter with temps in the 40s like every weekend.

Expand  

40s and a wicked nor'easter for Memorial Day weekend. April 2003 had days of like snow/sleet/FZDZ. It was crazy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:54 PM, CoastalWx said:

40s and a wicked nor'easter for Memorial Day weekend. April 2003 had days of like snow/sleet/FZDZ. It was crazy. 

Expand  

I was away in the Marines for that....I was gone from mid January into early August....just came home on leave to get boned by PDII.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Warm spring, and I still had some snow piles around town in June.

Nuts.

Expand  

Yeah if that had been more like a 2018 or 2020 spring we prob would’ve had regular pack into the 3rd week of April. :lol:
 

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor.

Expand  

Yeah we def want to root for high ACE. But even if it isn’t, I won’t be terrified of La Niña. I’d like to see some changes in the N PAC in terms of getting ridging more poleward but we can get good La Niña even without a ton of blocking. 2007-08 and 2016-17 are two relatively recent examples. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:58 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if that had been more like a 2018 or 2020 spring we prob would’ve had regular pack into the 3rd week of April. :lol:
 

Yeah we def want to root for high ACE. But even if it isn’t, I won’t be terrified of La Niña. I’d like to see some changes in the N PAC in terms of getting ridging more poleward but we can get good La Niña even without a ton of blocking. 2007-08 and 2016-17 are two relatively recent examples. 

Expand  

That's the thing...I think they are related....that and La Nina orientation in stronger events factors in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's hard to judge springs off just temps too. Before full leaf out we can still pull some better rad nights. In SNH, we could pull 70/34 on May 1 and it's solidly BN, but real nice during the day. Have to use a combo of temps and precip to get the full picture 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice GFS -enhanced hallucination off the EC in the chaos range.

That whole entangled train wreck out there is completely fabricated by the physical processing emergence - there's no identifiable feed into that sytem, and given the total envelope of environmental, and modeled synoptic parameters, there's very little credence to a spontaneous cyclone driven by oceanic heat, either.

This model just cannot leave ridges alone.  This run exposes big brother constantly flicking ears.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 6:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

He seems to just blow a lot of smoke in general 

Expand  

Well, like I said....especially in season, he doesn't offer alot of speculation on the extended range that exceeds simple data inrepretation....once the data changes, he will change...just admits he doesn't "know if its right". He is more a medium range guy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 5:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor.

Expand  

2005-06 was a pretty low floor, with almost no snow after Jan 31.  Among 389 met winter months at the Farmington co-op, only Dec 1999 had less snow than the 1.1" of Feb 06.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 2/23/2024 at 6:12 PM, wx2fish said:

It's hard to judge springs off just temps too. Before full leaf out we can still pull some better rad nights. In SNH, we could pull 70/34 on May 1 and it's solidly BN, but real nice during the day. Have to use a combo of temps and precip to get the full picture 

Expand  

Yeah that is true. You can occasionally have a really nice spring that was still normal or chilly in the mean temps, but lots of sun. Though often the precip will drive down departures in the spring. Esp the later into spring we get….clouds and precip blocking out a May sun angle really helps keep temps down. 
 

If you look at the 2000-2009 composite, it was very wet in those springs which probably helped drive the departures down. In the past decade, our springs have run significantly drier than that 2000s decade. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Great winter for Leo and I. No complaints from this region. Started slow. December was crap. Whiffed on the big storms in January and was bare ground until the last week of the month, then gang busters. 52" between Jan 24th - Feb 24th. Have had a two foot snowpack for several weeks. I am just shy of normal of 72". Light years better than last winter here. Even in decent patterns, there are winners and losers'. No guarantees. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...