Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro getting a little more interesting for Saturday in southern zones. Each run is creeping north. Should be a nice snowy morning at the very least 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kazimirkai Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just kind of a random question: Do models take into consideration snow-cover enhanced radiational cooling when forecasting temperatures? Its hard to know which forecasts to pay attention that do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massplow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Each run is creeping north. Should be a nice snowy morning at the very least How far north is it reaching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: https://phys.org/news/2024-02-deeply-discovery-earth-crucial-15c.html What a fascinating methodology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Massplow said: How far north is it reaching? It’s got steady light snow at least into southern half of CT. It does have measurable up into MA but a bit more skeptical of that actually being more than just flurries or a few snow showers. If it ticks north again, then it would be worthy of a deeper look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Massplow said: How far north is it reaching? It's mostly mood snow at best. There would have to be another couple tics north for it to be anything of note for the south coast as far as I can see. But what else am I going to look at? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Lets go back to discuss the GFS and Canadian rain event for the 24th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: It's mostly mood snow at best. There would have to be another couple tics north for it to be anything of note for the south coast as far as I can see. But what else am I going to look at? Well, take you pick - we've got a lot on the menu today: various studies and research papers, clown maps out to the ~300hr range, mid-90's sitcoms, vintage John Holmes films circa 1980, oh, and a touch of current weather discussion mixed in. Clearly a little something for everyone! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, Massplow said: How far north is it reaching? Right now it’s got solid light snows up to I-90 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, kazimirkai said: Just kind of a random question: Do models take into consideration snow-cover enhanced radiational cooling when forecasting temperatures? Its hard to know which forecasts to pay attention that do. I think they do to some degree but I don't think models are great with this or radiational cooling. MOS/NBM can struggle greatly with these two, especially radiational cooling. MOS/NBM can easily end up being several degrees too warm in these situations. Too me at least, forecasting low temperatures can be extremely challenging at times and way more difficult than forecasting high temperatures. The best bet would be assessing forecast soundings, particularly bufkit where you're able to do do enhanced assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: What a fascinating methodology. The framing of the study is misleading- bearing on the Paris Agreement 1.5C limit- because it specifically describes temperature rise relative to the late 19th century. That limit was established as the threshold of unacceptably dangerous warming and describes temperature rise relative to the late 19th century. If this study has indeed identified warming from before the mid-1800s, that doesn’t mean the planet is any closer to breaking the 1.5C limit as it is widely understood. Too, proxy data from a single relatively isolated location should not be used to make assumptions about the entire planet- or even regionally. Finally, this study suggests that that little ocean area where the sponges were examined had a temperature increase of about twice that for what has been established had happened over land during the same period. So I am not sure how we can then formulate a causal relationship for temperatures today, when none had existed even back then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right now it’s got a dusting to rt 44. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looking forward to 2-4" tonight. Midcoast maine should do great in tonight's system. They do the best with with these IVTs and easterly fetch off the GOM. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 6+ spot somewhere from Brunswick to rockland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right now it’s got solid light snows up to I-90 It’s really not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: The framing of the study is misleading- bearing on the Paris Agreement 1.5C limit- because it specifically describes temperature rise relative to the late 19th century. That limit was established as the threshold of unacceptably dangerous warming and describes temperature rise relative to the late 19th century. If this study has indeed identified warming from before the mid-1800s, that doesn’t mean the planet is any closer to breaking the 1.5C limit as it is widely understood. Too, proxy data from a single relatively isolated location should not be used to make assumptions about the entire planet- or even regionally. Finally, this study suggests that that little ocean area where the sponges were examined had a temperature increase of about twice that for what has been established had happened over land during the same period. So I am not sure how we can then formulate a causal relationship for temperatures today, when none had existed even back then. I read the study, not the gloss on the study. The study itself already responds to your point regarding the land and water temperatures, you don't have to find it convincing. I'm not really interested in the political implications based on the Paris Accord definition, or even the 1.5C "limit" both because it's clear we are going to sail right by it, and because it was established as a relatively arbitrary political tool, not as any scientific metric. The Paris starting point doesn't delineate a preindustrial world, it more has to do with when reliable temperature data began to be reported. Surely one of the points of this study is exploring another set of data that can be measured from before that starting point. It's just one more methodology and one more set of data. The data, as far as sampling goes seem reasonable enough. I'm not sure if it's a "relatively isolated area." The area seems to be limited to where this particular sea sponge lives and is accessible to divers. They could widen the sampling some, but we're talking about a very particular organism with a limited range. Depending on how well reviewed it is, the same methodology can be used to sample data elsewhere, but only where this organism lives, to which you could raise the same doubt. It might spark interest in growth rates with other organisms, but as the research specifies, they'd also have to be an organism that exhibits some very simple linear relationship with temperature that is recordable. I guess I'm more impressed with the good nuts-and-bolts science of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: It’s really not. Actually it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Actually it is GPS has nothing, NAM nothing, ICON a trace, Euro a trace to an inch. I want to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: What does the overall setup suggest to you, in terms of where the storm should track? I'm not looking too closely yet, but probably a hugger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GEFS and GEPS are huggerish, EPS looks like a late-bloom coastal. I'll probably do a small heads up for it over the weekend if it warrants....then a first call like Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 25 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: GPS has nothing, NAM nothing, ICON a trace, Euro a trace to an inch. I want to believe. Reggie too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Good thing the snow tonight isn’t about 4-5 hours earlier. That would’ve been a disaster for evening commute. It’s not a lot of snow but it looks like it could rip for an hour or two which will def mess up the roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 BOX finally wakes up and adds Wind advisories to CT. Should be HWW, but at least it’s a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM came north for Saturday, Nice sliver perhaps on S coast verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: BOX finally wakes up and adds Wind advisories to CT. Should be HWW, but at least it’s a start Not sure I follow their logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, CoastalWx said: Not sure I follow their logic. Do they ever have any? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: BOX finally wakes up and adds Wind advisories to CT. Should be HWW, but at least it’s a start Just remember, there's not too much snow to your NW can can get blown in. And yours will get blown out! I have bare patches over 25% of my property from yesterday. Though I do have some nice 3-4 foot drifts in other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NWS has bumped me up to 3-5" for tonight. Livin' large. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: NWS has bumped me up to 3-5" for tonight. Livin' large. Me too. Has the guidance changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Me too. Has the guidance changed? Not really. Would think 3-5 is more N and E of low track (Conway towards Portland), but maybe a fluffy 3 there for sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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