It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, MBRI said:

Groomers are reporting  3-6"+ new snow in Pittsburg and Colebrook and still snowing.

 

Sneaky snowy pattern coming up for the upslope areas the next week or so. Hopefully that helps up there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

SNE refreshers every 2-3 days thru mid week. And then we watch late next week. And then it ends 

[MBRI]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sneaky snowy pattern coming up for the upslope areas the next week or so. Hopefully that helps up there. 

Days of 1-3 and a sneaky 6" are a blessing.

Heading up Saturday

 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You could argue we’ve seen less EMLs (elevated mixed layer) than we used to if we’re getting more western Atlantic ridging in the summer giving us higher dewpoint airmasses. I don’t know if that’s true long term or empirically speaking but anecdotally it seems to be the case in recent years. 
 

What we typically want for severe wx in the northeast is an EML that comes over the top from the plains and Great Lakes….they actually originate in the semi-arid climate of the southwest and western plains. Without an EML, it’s a lot harder to get high end severe wx…you need those big lapse rates. 

Yeah we have definitely seen less EMLs in recent years than we used to. June 1, 2011 Springfield tornado is the one exception that comes to mind. There was a decent EML in place that day. I'm not sure if May 15, 2018 had an EML in place either. But even still I would say that neither of those events compare to what we saw regularly in the 80s and 90s, and of course 1953. Also, June 6, 2010 had massive potential with very high end parameters in place, but it still busted badly if I recall. Maybe it's just coincidental that we haven't had the right atmospheric setups that we used to get that brought us severe weather and hurricanes. It's probably just random cycles rather than some CC induced change but who knows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t really have an issue with most of his posts. He’s a bit more nuanced than some of the CC zealots. 
 

My biggest disagreement with him was about blocking staying further south semi-permanently going forward due to Atlantic SSTs….

The MJO stuff is an interesting theory but I still lean on it being over-attributed just like many of the other factors that were presented prior. He does mention it could reverse which is more than others have said. Having record warmth is definitely easier due to CC because the globe is warmer. No arguing that. You’re always going to get some weird and anomalous streaks…and the easiest explanation is going to be CC and people will ride that whether the attribution was like 10% or 20% or 80%. 

What he says makes sense in theory and I respect the fact that he is open to something altering the regime. He is not at all a troll. Very bright and grounded guy. Having said all of that, I remain of the opinion that Mother Nature will find a way to balance the scale, so to speak, at some point.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah we have definitely seen less EMLs in recent years than we used to. June 1, 2011 Springfield tornado is the one exception that comes to mind. There was a decent EML in place that day. I'm not sure if May 15, 2018 had an EML in place either. But even still I would say that neither of those events compare to what we saw regularly in the 80s and 90s, and of course 1953. Also, June 6, 2010 had massive potential with very high end parameters in place, but it still busted badly if I recall. Maybe it's just coincidental that we haven't had the right atmospheric setups that we used to get that brought us severe weather and hurricanes. It's probably just random cycles rather than some CC induced change but who knows.

June 1st a day I'll never forget hit one of the best storms I've ever seen in Northampton.. then on the way back had the Springfield tornado cross in front of me on 91!! one of the coolest things I've ever seen

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This is something I've wondered and talked about a lot.... despite the spike in TCs with the latest +AMO period, we haven't seen east coast TCs as strong or as many as we did back in the 1930s-1950s warm AMO period.  I wonder why? Most of the bigger storms seem to be concentrated in the GOM.

When was the last time we had a Cat 3 hit anywhere from Cape Hatteras on north?

 

 

I think CC is going to do to tropical activity what it is doing to snowfall...more feast or famine. We are seeing more lean snowfall seasons because temps are wamer, but we are also seeing more huge storms because there is more moisture. With respect to hurricanes, I believe a byproduct of the warmer PAC will be more wind shear down wind over the Atlantic basin, however, we will also be more prone to intense systems and uber active seasons when it is favorable.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think CC is going to do to tropical activity what it is doing to snowfall...more feast or famine. We are seeing more lean snowfall seasons because temps are wamer, but we are also seeing more huge storms because there is more moisture. With respect to hurricanes, I believe a byproduct of the warmer PAC will be more wind shear down wind over the Atlantic basin, however, we will also be more prone to intense systems and uber active seasons when it is favorable.

Thanks Ray, that makes  a lot of sense because the storms that do survive the wind shear will have to be more intense.  And in years when the shear is less (like this year), we'll have hyperactive seasons instead of just moderately more active.

 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

You can say the same thing about severe weather. Why doesn't the northeast US get the same major severe outbreaks that we used to get? Multiple intense derechos in the 80s and 90s, 05/31/85 tornado outbreak, also a high risk day on 05/31/98 that produced seven EF3's in NY state. Don't forget about the 1953 Worcester tornado. I wonder what was the return period for that is? The 50s were crazy. Major hurricanes and F4 tornadoes. You would think that those events would be more common nowadays with all this warming climate, but they're not.

I remember the widespread and intense severe weather activity in October 1989 and again in May 1998 and Labor Day 1998-- it almost seems mythic now because of incredibly intense and widespread they were.  Going back and reading about October 1989 WOW, that was a severe weather outbreak that affected almost the entire country. And on Labor Day 1998 an F2 tornado hit only a few miles from here

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

SNE refreshers every 2-3 days athry mid week. And then we watch late next week. And then it ends 

There will be a period of chances in the first half of March. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Unprecedented tornado season in 1953 and unprecedented hurricane season in ‘54. Any connection?

Maybe the +AMO.... in the 50s the summers were extremely warm and humid too.  Less snowy winters overall that decade also. But the snow we did get was often backloaded, March was the snowiest month.

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What he says makes sense in theory and I respect the fact that he is open to something altering the regime. He is not at all a troll. Very bright and grounded guy. Having said all of that, I remain of the opinion that Mother Nature will find a way to balance the scale, so to speak, at some point.

Agreed. @bluewave is a very good poster. He’s here in good faith. 

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What he says makes sense in theory and I respect the fact that he is open to something altering the regime. He is not at all a troll. Very bright and grounded guy. Having said all of that, I remain of the opinion that Mother Nature will find a way to balance the scale, so to speak, at some point.

100% agree 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it would make an interesting study. It’s too bad we don’t have better data from that period. The late 1800s was also another period of frequent TC activity along the east coast. But it doesn’t quite match that 1930s-1960 period. 

August 1893 was a big one here.  I see it was unusually snowy back then too, so maybe there was a connection between higher activity in east coast snowstorms in the winter and east coast hurricanes in the summer/fall?  Ludlum lists the late 1860s as a period when snowfall was exceptionally high, including one season when NYC had close to 100" of snow.  There was a famous snowstorm that supposedly dropped 3 feet of snow with temps close to 0.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think CC is going to do to tropical activity what it is doing to snowfall...more feast or famine. We are seeing more lean snowfall seasons because temps are wamer, but we are also seeing more huge storms because there is more moisture. With respect to hurricanes, I believe a byproduct of the warmer PAC will be more wind shear down wind over the Atlantic basin, however, we will also be more prone to intense systems and uber active seasons when it is favorable.

This makes a lot of sense. Also, especially with regards to hurricanes, it seems like there are certain tracks that we just don't see anymore. Aside from the lack of NE hurricanes, a good example are classic Caribbean cruisers like Allen, Gilbert, Ivan, Dean. 2007 was the last one but in the decades before that they were quite common. Maybe we get one this year but they really do seem like a thing of the past. The records are too short of a time span to make any correlations and hurricane tracks probably have nothing to do with CC at all but I still find it interesting.

[Ginx snewx]

Is there anything more boring than CC talk

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will be a period of chances in the first half of March. 

Not likely. Late Feb and Morch all progs show a similar evolution to 2012. May not end up that warm.. but Morch is going to furnace 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not likely. Late Feb and Morch all progs show a similar evolution to 2012. May not end up that warm.. but Morch is going to furnace 

Lol and there it is Kevs annual Morch 2012 post.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe the +AMO.... in the 50s the summers were extremely warm and humid too.  Less snowy winters overall that decade also. But the snow we did get was often backloaded, March was the snowiest month.

There was definitely a period of extreme warmth in the northeast during the late ‘40s/early ‘50s. I think 1949 is still the warmest year on record for many stations in MA. That warmth extended up into gulf of maine and the Canadian maritimes….so clearly there was something going on during those years that may have helped tropical cyclones get northward. But it’s an interesting question why we haven’t been able to get the same thing now with big warmth being centered over that same area in the past decade. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol and there it is Kevs annual Morch 2012 post.

It’s all there for anyone to look at modeling and see. Maybe it isn’t that hot. But winter 2024 is about over 

[NorEastermass128]

Parts of Salem now flood on sunny days with no wind during astronomically high tides. More surge than snowfall this season. 

[Spanks45]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not likely. Late Feb and Morch all progs show a similar evolution to 2012. May not end up that warm.. but Morch is going to furnace 

I hope not, I don't want to lose my fruit trees, 3 years in a row....talk about CC(jk, sort of....)

Massive warmups in late winter followed by winter in late April/early May.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sneaky snowy pattern coming up for the upslope areas the next week or so. Hopefully that helps up there. 

My barometer to good upslope periods is rooted in the 850mb temps.  If we can average -12C at ridge level, during waves of moisture… it will fluff out.

When the thermal profile is such, it snows up north.  This upcoming clipper seems terrain sensitive as well, with H85 temps of -8C to -22C over time, and lift averaging in the crosshairs.

[dryslot]

GYX bumped them up.

[cleetussnow]

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is there anything more boring than CC talk

Well I am enjoying trying to figure out which emoji to slap this post with, which is more fun than most of this winter.  

[Brian5671]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not likely. Late Feb and Morch all progs show a similar evolution to 2012. May not end up that warm.. but Morch is going to furnace 

There's little to no snowcover over the midwest and great lakes region too-so any "cold air" will modify bigly not to mention ice free great lakes

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s all there for anyone to look at modeling and see. Maybe it isn’t that hot. But winter 2024 is about over 

if it is oh well. as much as I would love to see a major snowfall.. I'm kind of ready for it to be warmer and be able to go out and enjoy the weather.. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was definitely a period of extreme warmth in the northeast during the late ‘40s/early ‘50s. I think 1949 is still the warmest year on record for many stations in MA. That warmth extended up into gulf of maine and the Canadian maritimes….so clearly there was something going on during those years that may have helped tropical cyclones get northward. But it’s an interesting question why we haven’t been able to get the same thing now with big warmth being centered over that same area in the past decade. 

And 1955 had another amazingly hot summer, I wonder about that 11 year cycle sometimes, it hasn't worked in every case but it has in a majority of them.

There's another more subtle thing going on that's different from back then.  Back in the 40s and 50s we used to get much longer heatwaves and the heat came in earlier, the extreme heat anyway.  We hit 100 back in June in a few of those years, which hasn't happened much since.  Also, the length of the heatwaves was much longer-- we have a record of a 12 day super heatwave (really amazing!) back in late August through early September back in 1953 (including a few days of 100+, the monthly record of 102 in September 1953 was recorded in this stretch.)  We have not had a heatwave of more than 6 days since 2002 I believe.  And that 12 day super heatwave from 1953 has not come close to being touched-- and it was rather astonishing it happened in the last week of August and the first week of September.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

 

I remember the ones from 1993 and 1999 in this list as well as the one from 2002.  Interesting how many of these are in that 11 year cycle I mentioned.

 I also just saw that 1953 had two long heatwaves, a 7 day heatwave in July and that 12 day heatwave.... and a total of 4 days of 100+ wow.  You just don't see that around here anymore. And if I'm not mistaken I think it also hit 100 in June 1953, so that would be 5 days of 100+ and hitting 100 in every month from June through September, wow!

Interesting thing about 2002-- it had two long heatwaves, one of 9 days and one of 8 days.  And although the 11 day heatwave in 1999 did not have any 100+ degree highs, we had two back to back 101 degree highs right after July 4th that summer.

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX bumped them up.

Much broader area of 3 to 4 inches and that 4 to 6 inch area expanding. Will be inching to see what the mesos bring us overnight.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

You can say the same thing about severe weather. Why doesn't the northeast US get the same major severe outbreaks that we used to get? Multiple intense derechos in the 80s and 90s, 05/31/85 tornado outbreak, also a high risk day on 05/31/98 that produced seven EF3's in NY state. Don't forget about the 1953 Worcester tornado. I wonder what was the return period for that is? The 50s were crazy. Major hurricanes and F4 tornadoes. You would think that those events would be more common nowadays with all this warming climate, but they're not.

1953 is at the top of the list for super heatwaves too.  Look at this list, it's crazy to see a 12 day heatwave at the end of August and into September and hitting 100+ several times, including the September monthly record of 102 in the middle of that torrid stretch. I also just saw that 1953 had two long heatwaves, a 7 day heatwave in July and that 12 day heatwave.... and a total of 4 days of 100+ wow.  You just don't see that around here anymore.

And if I'm not mistaken I think it also hit 100 in June 1953, so that would be 5 days of 100+ and hitting 100 in every month from June through September, wow!

We haven't had a double digit day heatwave since 1999 and the last time we had a long heatwave here at all was back in 2002 when we had 2.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves