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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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2 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

I like your optimism but speculating on 11 day potential just won't cut it after this latest day 2 failure.  Long range and even medium range model confidence has been found wanting this winter season. 

Earlier this winter others were being criticized for posting such long range op runs.   ;)

 

A week in advance we started a thread for a storm potential, and the storm occurred. Don’t conflate poor modeling performance after the fact.

I understand yours and other peoples frustration, but the models jerking people around has nothing to do with what actually took place.  And what took place was ferreted out using long lead techniques; turned out to be correct enough. 

I wouldn’t read too much into the 24th anyway… We’re not starting a thread here just mentioning it.  Think of it as meteorologist at the water cooler.  No skin if it doesn’t materialize. 

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

A week in advance we started a thread for a storm potential, and the storm occurred. Don’t conflate poor modeling performance after the fact.

I understand yours and other peoples frustration, but the models jerking people around has nothing to do with what actually took place.  And what took place was ferreted out using long lead techniques; turned out to be correct enough. 

I wouldn’t read too much into the 24th anyway… We’re not starting a thread here just mentioning it.  Think of it as meteorologist at the water cooler.  No skin if it doesn’t materialize. 

24th looks classic NJ subsume

index (1).png

index.png

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11 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Listen, just like when it showed very cold cold air and then it modifies some or changes some as we got closer, the same thing can happen with this. It's probably going to modify some or change. Either way, anyone clinging to the LR to bring super cold air in or a furnace in is playing with fire ( no pun intended ). 

It's more wait and see as we get closer and what's going to happen. But once we get into March things are supposed to change as we transition into spring.

Don’t worry. Brooklynwx will be here soon posting 10 different maps showing how an epic, historic, perfect, mind blowing, textbook KU pattern with true arctic cold and massive blocking from the equator to the North Pole is coming for us in March

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5 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Winter has been sucking here, but if it makes you feel any better, check out the current modeled snow depth in the Midwest. I know these maps aren't perfect, but - I'm mean, just wow. Absolutely brutal.

 

Brutal Midwest Snowcover.png

Maybe we can Morch 2012 with no snowpack into srn Canada.

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t worry. Brooklynwx will be here soon posting 10 different maps showing how an epic, historic, perfect, mind blowing, textbook KU pattern with true arctic cold and massive blocking from the equator to the North Pole is coming for us March

Bet the house ...

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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

24th looks classic NJ subsume

index (1).png

index.png

Very early of course so taken with the usual caveat emptor -

 This is an unusually clear suggestion from 10 days in advance.  Also, looping this (leading to -), it's interesting to see the entire ens mean actually performing a Miller B behavior with such coherency. Whether that comes by way of subsume mechanics, or just a regular Colorado low type transit ..etc, we have a lots of time for that to emerge.

eps_lowlocs_us_41.png

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