Torch Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This would be a heck of an end to February. Theme of the winter with Canada absolutely furnaced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Really close to going ker boom! ...Heights over Miami and adjacency below 580 dm, with pre ambient wind field < 50 kts, while heights are rising west of 100 W no less ... All we need is for that latter aspect to kick just a bit more and this thing's digging for Hades and bringin' the apoclypse back with it. This quickly would become the season definer - I like your optimism but speculating on 11 day potential just won't cut it after this latest day 2 failure. Long range and even medium range model confidence has been found wanting this winter season. Earlier this winter others were being criticized for posting such long range op runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well that makes sense, since your outlook calls for that(winter being over) to be the case. Main reason why I am so frustrated of late....we have missed most of my identified windows, despite the patterns working out. I only see one significant, viable threat for this period before its over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray, Did you say on the other thread you scored 1.5" today? ASH .25". I probably now at 27"+/_, I am not bailing out, maybe I will be the last guy standing, I remain in till April 1, after that I have no desire. I just can't believe the whole month of March will go down with out an event for the interior, but nothing would surprise me. Yea, 1.5"...but apparently a local "max"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Yeah end of Feb looks mild. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Main reason why I am so frustrated of late....we have missed most of my identified windows, despite the patterns working out. I only see one significant, viable threat for this period before its over. When's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: This would be a heck of an end to February. Theme of the winter with Canada absolutely furnaced Listen, just like when it showed very cold cold air and then it modifies some or changes some as we got closer, the same thing can happen with this. It's probably going to modify some or change. Either way, anyone clinging to the LR to bring super cold air in or a furnace in is playing with fire ( no pun intended ). It's more wait and see as we get closer and what's going to happen. But once we get into March things are supposed to change as we transition into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Main reason why I am so frustrated of late....we have missed most of my identified windows, despite the patterns working out. I only see one significant, viable threat for this period before its over. That’s certainly fair enough. But sometimes just because one doesn’t see it, doesn’t mean it’s not a viable potential. I realize today didn’t work out for a lot of folks, but the storm that many saw not working out early last week,(in fact a-lot of the same talk was being spoken as right now) has delivered 12-18 for some, and 5-10 for alot of others. So the needle did get threaded, and this was thought of as gravy(if it ever worked out) before this next more viable window that is approaching. So perhaps some of the upcoming next potential, hasn’t completely and fully revealed itself just yet… just saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, WinterWolf said: That’s certainly fair enough. But sometimes just because one doesn’t see it, doesn’t mean it’s not a viable potential. I realize today didn’t work out for a lot of folks, but the storm that many saw not working out early last week,(in fact a-lot of the same talk was being spoken as right now) has delivered 12-18 for some, and 5-10 for alot of others. So the needle did get threaded, and this was thought of as gravy(if it ever worked out) before this next more visible window that is approaching. So perhaps some of the upcoming next potential, hasn’t completely revealed itself fully just yet… just saying. True-we'll see in about a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I feel like this forum might go crazy if the “Morch” ends up being 45 degrees and cloudy for weeks on end with +20 low temps at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Knowing the weather weenie population, that is a smaller leap of faith than a winter month being a torch. Tell it like it is gurrrrllll! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I feel like this forum might go crazy if the “Morch” ends up being 45 degrees and cloudy for weeks on end with +20 low temps at night. How would that be any different than what we’ve experienced since November aside from brief periods of warmth and cold? I’m numb to it all. Give my last Saturday’s weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 End of the month looks milder. Pretty easy call I think. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I see the “potential.” But nothing really takes my breathe away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I feel like this forum might go crazy if the “Morch” ends up being 45 degrees and cloudy for weeks on end with +20 low temps at night. Yes, this is a great point. I think that many envision mild sunny days in the 60’s, and dry stretches when they think of Morch being above normal, and winter being over Lol…that’s almost always never the case. Sure it’ll be above normal, but more likely just as you explained. Which really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: End of the month looks milder. Pretty easy call I think. Sounds like a good time to install. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see the “potential.” But nothing really takes my breathe away. Flow goes very meridional for a time so that’s the period to watch imho. Model guidance tends to struggle the most when you have northern stream shortwaves coming out of the arctic where sampling is bad and satellite data is distorted. That’s when we can get those threats to pop out of nowhere at like D5-6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, CoastalWx said: I see the “potential.” But nothing really takes my breathe away. Well to be honest…it’s probably better at this point that it doesn’t. I like when they come out later on, as we move along. Those seem to work out a little more often when they pop at shorter leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Eps closer for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 33 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: I feel like this forum might go crazy if the “Morch” ends up being 45 degrees and cloudy for weeks on end with +20 low temps at night. That sums up the winter overall. Huge minimum departures and clouds, moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps closer for this weekend She’s morphing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Flow goes very meridional for a time so that’s the period to watch imho. Model guidance tends to struggle the most when you have northern stream shortwaves coming out of the arctic where sampling is bad and satellite data is distorted. That’s when we can get those threats to pop out of nowhere at like D5-6 Yeah and there’s split flow prior. Just looked like that lower height shit in AK and the Bering Sea may try to get progressive and ruin that look. Maybe I’m just jaded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massplow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I know most aren’t interested in nuisance stuff but is Thursday night looking like anything for Eastern ma? I’m sick of this winter too but even a few inches takes some planning for snow removal operations so any chance interests me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah and there’s split flow prior. Just looked like that lower height shit in AK and the Bering Sea may try to get progressive and ruin that look. Maybe I’m just jaded. I suppose that could happen..it’s certainly possible. But we can also say the milder look in 15-16 days at the end of the month, can have something happen to ruin that look as well. It could go both ways at this lead time…no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes, this is a great point. I think that many envision mild sunny days in the 60’s, and dry stretches when they think of Morch being above normal, and winter being over Lol…that’s almost always never the case. Sure it’ll be above normal, but more likely just as you explained. Which really sucks. Yes exactly. Some may be envisioning shorts and sandals and while that could happen, I feel like disappointment will continue, but just in the other direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, Massplow said: I know most aren’t interested in nuisance stuff but is Thursday night looking like anything for Eastern ma? I’m sick of this winter too but even a few inches takes some planning for snow removal operations so any chance interests me lol 1-2. Maybe spot 3. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Listen, just like when it showed very cold cold air and then it modifies some or changes some as we got closer, the same thing can happen with this. It's probably going to modify some or change. Either way, anyone clinging to the LR to bring super cold air in or a furnace in is playing with fire ( no pun intended ). It's more wait and see as we get closer and what's going to happen. But once we get into March things are supposed to change as we transition into spring. There is overall evidence towards mild (IF the gefs have any skill, tbd). Euro by D14 looked similar, not quite as mild maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Jeez 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Sounds like a good time to install. I just uninstalled my bedroom A/C the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Jeez Eye opening. Delaware > Boston?!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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