Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, normally, the fail mode in strong Nino Februarys is an overly oppressive GoAK low, not whatever the hell this is. this makes no sense Well ...the immediate and obvious answer is a variant -PNA. But you mean it shouldn't be happening in general I suspect ? Mm... I've frankly become more and more convinced we haven't truly/fully coupled any of these ENSO events to the hemisphere ... going back some 15 years of them. Too many non-correlating field/hemispheric modes - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Thanks. Everybody needs snow. Had to cancel our trip up to the county…no snow. Yup, Lot of trail closures, Mid Feb, Pretty unheard of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Really close to going ker boom! ...Heights over Miami and adjacency below 580 dm, with pre ambient wind field < 50 kts, while heights are rising west of 100 W no less ... All we need is for that latter aspect to kick just a bit more and this thing's digging for Hades and bringin' the apoclypse back with it. This quickly would become the season definer - 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Really close to going ker boom! ...Heights over Miami and adjacency below 580 dm, with pre ambient wind field < 50 kts, while heights are rising west of 100 W no less ... All we need is for that latter aspect to kick just a bit more and this thing's digging for Hades and bringin' the apoclypse back with it. This quickly would become the season definer - ample cold air with the displaced TPV beforehand... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: ample cold air with the displaced TPV beforehand... You can see there the end of winter . If that storm happens.. and it probably will. Two days later the furnace comes east . We have about 10-14 days left 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can see there the end of winter . If that storm happens.. and it probably will. Two days later the furnace comes east . We have about 10-14 days left End of winter ? LOL 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, MJO812 said: End of winter ? LOL Morch is going to be an all out furnace . You can see it on all LR guidance 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch is going to be an all out furnace . You can see it on all LR guidance I’m banking on it. Of course, I’ll get misery mist and 39F while all the places that got the snows bask in 64F sun as bumble bees bounce about the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch is going to be an all out furnace . You can see it on all LR guidance Lolz models can't even get it right the day before. 2 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Really close to going ker boom! ...Heights over Miami and adjacency below 580 dm, with pre ambient wind field < 50 kts, while heights are rising west of 100 W no less ... All we need is for that latter aspect to kick just a bit more and this thing's digging for Hades and bringin' the apoclypse back with it. This quickly would become the season definer - More like ker plunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: More like ker plunk. …and then flush. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch is going to be an all out furnace . You can see it on all LR guidance Bring on Morch! Have some grass to seed in the yard, would like to get an early start since I missed my window in the fall. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, kdxken said: Lolz models can't even get it right the day before. This was my exact thought….too funny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch is going to be an all out furnace . You can see it on all LR guidance Actually a lot of longer range guidance tries to reload after about a week. I don’t necessarily buy it but LR guidance isn’t in any type of consensus. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch is going to be an all out furnace . You can see it on all LR guidance Ya ok. We didn’t know what todays storm was gonna do 6 hrs before(you called for a shut out, and got a foot lol) ….but the end of winter we can see at 16 days out. I’ll sell that big time at this point. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: was I wrong to push back on it, my reasoning was posted when we had that exchange in Jan Push back on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Remember those "frigid" calls a few days ago for the next week or two, that talk disappeared rather quickly Looks like slightly BN overall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This was my exact thought….too funny. Well, considering every winter month for the past 3 years has been a raging inferno it's not a huge leap of faith. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 49 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Bring on Morch! Have some grass to seed in the yard, would like to get an early start since I missed my window in the fall. Yeah only a few diehards are holding out for the "stat-padding", dried out clippers. most have moved on besides a biggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Push back on what? Your hiney? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I'm defeated, so I have no cares. Just going wild. Whiskey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I have no confidence in the 24th threat. Looking at the ensembles, the temps are AN. The temps are just too warm this winter. I got burned with this threat and the Jan 7th one, I’m not getting burned again. It’s just going to be another shitty needle threader that requires a tremendous amount of luck. It’s a ratter, for me it’s time to move on to tracking the ENSO state for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, George001 said: I have no confidence in the 24th threat. Looking at the ensembles, the temps are AN. The temps are just too warm this winter. I got burned with this threat and the Jan 7th one, I’m not getting burned again. You’ll be right back on the train once the clown maps have you in double digits on the next threat. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You’ll be right back on the train once the clown maps have you in double digits on the next threat. Not unless there is large scale cross guidance agreement on temps being FRIGID, like mid 20s or below throughout the entire storm. I would love to be proven wrong, but until I see that, I am out on the rest of this “winter”. I’ve just been chasing ghosts for 2 years. 2/24 could be interesting for the interior, but to me it looks like more of the same. Too warm here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Okay.....intrigued on 2/24....but I think winter is over there after and anything prior is a nuisance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your hiney? Knowing the weather weenie population, that is a smaller leap of faith to a winter month being a torch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Not unless there is large scale cross guidance agreement on temps being FRIGID, like mid 20s or below throughout the entire storm. I would love to be proven wrong, but until I see that, I am out on the rest of this “winter”. I’ve just been chasing ghosts for 2 years. 2/24 could be interesting for the interior, but to me it looks like more of the same. Too warm here. I was 30 degrees today and got 12.5”. You don’t need mid 20’s for an excellent snow storm George. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay.....intrigued on 2/24....but I think winter is over there after and anything prior is a nuisance. I don't see much of a block or 50/50.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay.....intrigued on 2/24....but I think winter is over there after and anything prior is a nuisance. Well that makes sense, since your outlook calls for that(winter being over) to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay.....intrigued on 2/24....but I think winter is over there after and anything prior is a nuisance. Ray, Did you say on the other thread you scored 1.5" today? ASH .25". I probably now at 27"+/_, I am not bailing out, maybe I will be the last guy standing, I remain in till April 1, after that I have no desire. I just can't believe the whole month of March will go down with out an event for the interior, but nothing would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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