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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Clipper starting to come back Friday into Saturday 

There’s some threats after the clipper too. 2/20-21 is starting to show up more. 
 

Some guidance tries to sneak in a smaller threat 2/17-18 too. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s some threats after the clipper too. 2/20-21 is starting to show up more. 
 

Some guidance tries to sneak in a smaller threat 2/17-18 too. 

I still see no signs of this ghost-blizzard everyone keeps honking over. Don't get me wrong, this is one of my identified windows, but I don't see many signs of life on guidance.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still see no signs of this ghost-blizzard everyone keeps honking over. Don't get me wrong, this is one of my identified windows, but I don't see many signs of life on guidance.

I mean, the OP euro last night at D9-10 was pretty obvious…but if we hate OP runs, the general pattern for something is there on the ensembles….you have a trough entering the Midwest/Oh valley with a 50/50 in place and even a bit of a WAR to try and push this back west if it tries to escape east. I’m not honking or anything yet but there’s certainly potential

 

IMG_0270.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, the OP euro last night at D9-10 was pretty obvious…but if we hate OP runs, the general pattern for something is there on the ensembles….you have a trough entering the Midwest/Oh valley with a 50/50 in place and even a bit of a WAR to try and push this back west if it tries to escape east. I’m not honking or anything yet but there’s certainly potential

 

IMG_0270.jpeg

Euro ensembles definitely are robust and colder. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, the OP euro last night at D9-10 was pretty obvious…but if we hate OP runs, the general pattern for something is there on the ensembles….you have a trough entering the Midwest/Oh valley with a 50/50 in place and even a bit of a WAR to try and push this back west if it tries to escape east. I’m not honking or anything yet but there’s certainly potential

 

IMG_0270.jpeg

Well, this is what I mean...potential, sure, but getting within a week I would like to see something warrant a honk.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, this is what I mean...potential, sure, but getting within a weak I would like to see something warrant a honk.

We’re only at a beep. Let’s honk at D4-D5. That’s when our best events show up (out of seemingly nowhere when potential is underlying)

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12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We’re only at a beep. Let’s honk at D4-D5. That’s when our best events show up (out of seemingly nowhere when potential is underlying)

Yes but the biggies generally show themselves a week out.  Lets see where it stands tomorrow morning.

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57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, this is what I mean...potential, sure, but getting within a weak I would like to see something warrant a honk.

Yeah I hear you. This pattern has been chaos on guidance. Lot of shortwaves in the flow. 
 

It could easily end up as nothing. GFS has two moderate threats before that…sometimes we miss those when searching for the unicorns. 
 

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what “ghost poster” highlighted any blizzard on the 20th

… I guess that must just be sarcasm but there’s been suggestion of ‘period of interest’ in the ens means.  

Ex, it took time for this 13th thing to emerge out of this positive PNA too. So long as we maintain that steep temperature gradient from north to south at Continental scale, the entire period is going to be volatile as baseline …so the background potential is going to be elevated.   

but I will enter that I don’t think we’re gonna have a protracted winter into March unless we see some index variations that are favorable for that pretty soon start to show up on the coherency horizon. 
… This is not 1956 climate and I know it’s hard for people to get their head around this, but warming and seasonal change is a spring loaded affair in this era of history.  We have the benefit of a very strong and deep negative EPO but that ends around the 20th… And the PNA is modestly positive at that time but does tend to collapse negative afterwards. If we do not have a fresh insert of cold air, it will get warm pretty quickly ahead of schedule and probably faster than people think.

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Another stunning day! Snowpack is taking an absolute beating. Yesterday really did a number on it - as did the 35 degree low last night. I trudged down into the woods and took a 4k vid of the west branch Warner River as well. Water has come up, but nothing extreme by any stretch of the imagination. Unlisted link - >

 

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Snow is melting quick even at 1400 in Ashburnham.. nice day though 

received_1044281726630997.jpeg

yeah that's a beating...was in Ashburnham/New Boston on Friday, still had 3-5" left at that time.  One of the roads (Stowell Rd. iirc) was like 1400' right near Watatic, may have been 6" solid up there

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

yeah that's a beating...was in Ashburnham/New Boston on Friday, still had 3-5" left at that time.  One of the roads (Stowell Rd. iirc) was like 1400' right near Watatic, may have been 6" solid up there

lol that's exactly where I was  mother in law lives on stowell rd

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It’s only 30% into the month so far but these departures are incredible.  Might be beating a dead horse after a couple months of these departures, but the fact that there has been snow on the ground for most of the winter has been the surprising part.

1V4… +13.7 (100+ year POR)

MVL… +13.3

BTV… +11.9 (140+ year POR)

MPV… +10.8

Yesterday was 55/30 and a +27 at both MPV and MVL.

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