codfishsnowman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 33 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Pictures of the historic snowstorm in my area of New Glasgow Nova Scotia. Snowfall was 60 inches with snowdrifts making it even higher. Looks like man snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 A nice aspect of todays ensemble runs (both GEFS and EPS) is we’re seeing the GOA low retrograding back west at the end of the run. This is something @brooklynwx99 and I were pondering the last couple days. He had mentioned that it should theoretically retreat given the PAC jet weakening. It’s good to see guidance trying to pick up on that. A window longer than 7-10 days would substantially increase the chances of hitting on a major storm threat. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: A nice aspect of todays ensemble runs (both GEFS and EPS) is we’re seeing the GOA low retrograding back west at the end of the run. This is something @brooklynwx99 and I were pondering the last couple days. He had mentioned that it should theoretically retreat given the PAC jet weakening. It’s good to see guidance trying to pick up on that. A window longer than 7-10 days would substantially increase the chances of hitting on a major storm threat. can pretty easily see the Pacific trough retrograde, heights out west rise, and heights along the EC fall. all of this happens as the block finishes retrograding and weakens... this is the window for that major storm. models would never pick up on a brief PNA spike at range, either 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I noticed that too...even last night. We've seen the opposite happen so far this year...so maybe the climo back half of Nino actually working in our favor. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 the SPV and TPV getting torn to shreds and coupling increases the chance for blocking to reload, likely sometime in the first week of March. you'll get two, maybe three cracks at a big dog. we've spun the KU wheel three times so far in the last two years... you'd think your odds are better than 16% given three more chances in that kind of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, ariof said: Oh man tell me about it. In the early days of the Internet, there was a lot of virtuosity about information sharing. Wikipedia is built on this: what if, instead of a book of encyclopedias or a CD-ROM we had a bunch of people go out and crowd-source knowledge about everything. People get their fiefdoms, there is pretty decent moderation (which somehow hasn't broken like most of the rest of the Internet, at least so far) and a wealth of information has been put at people's fingertips. Another more personal example is cross country ski trail reports (which are weather-dependent, bringing it back towards this forum). Unlike downhill, there are a lot of community trails which don't have much of a web presence, but with a good forum you can pretty easily crowd-source conditions reports, if a relatively small pool of people participate. There's such a site in the Midwest and not only does it work pretty well, but it has been working well with basically the exact same format for about 25 years. It doesn't have bloat, it doesn't have many features, it's basically a guy running a pretty simple SQL database (and frankly, he should add some features, but if it ain't broke, etc). It hasn't been blown up and updated fifteen times with new features that make it much less useful. Is there one of these for the Northeast? No. There is an app someone started to try to mobilize and real-time this data (and which has gotten a bit of traction in the Midwest, and has East Coast trails, but not a lot of action), but I'm a member of a Facebook group (well, Facebook just started showing me posts at some point) which is a poor replica. There's no map feature, no search feature, it's just people posting photos of them and sometimes with relevant information (where was it, was it good, etc). It's not very useful, but it's very performative. That's what people seem to want now, not to share useful information, but to show what they did to everyone else whether it's useful or not. Why? Because that's where the money is, and we've been trained by Facebook and IG and Twitter to do this, rather than to share information. As an older millennial digital native 1990s Internet person, it's hard to fathom how much we have, but also how much we could have if the whole thing was not based on how rich some tech bros can get. This forum, thank goodness, hasn't fallen completely by the wayside. Imagine if this forum were just people posting photos of snow during storms and that was basically all it was, but without where or how much. And model discussions? People who are actually experts explaining things? That's the power of the Internet. It just doesn't much exist anymore. An aside, the Midwest winter is really awful this year. Minneapolis has pulled 7" of snow so far, with the highest month, 2.7", in October. Their long-term snowfall climo is similar to Boston but less variable, mean of 47 range from 14 to 98. December was a +12 climo, warmest on record (basically BOS normals), January was only +6 thanks to a weeklong cold snap but had 16 days +10 or more and February is off to a +19 start. It's kind of wild, and not in a good way. Yeah...and this has sort of gone unnoticed. I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, and both were cancelled since they haven't been able to open the trails. The most shocking stat of all is that essentially the entire state of WI has bare ground...on February 6th! There are no words to describe how ridiculous this is. North of 45N, they typically have 10-25+" on the ground now. The entire Midwest had a 7-day period of winter this season - that's it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I love the consistency regarding the blocking; both in terms of evolution and placement. I'd be hard pressed to believe there will not be multiple threats over the course of a few weeks. I know there has been a debate as how long this look holds, but I can see it hanging on the longer side. I don't mind the weakening block look b/c as long as the hemispheric configuration remains undisturbed, I could see the block regaining some strength and this would offer another period of potential...maybe even greater potential (for a larger event). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Really want to be optimistic, but both the calendar and the trends over the last two years are hard to ignore until broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 GEFS must have nice members for CNEThere were a coupleSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I love the consistency regarding the blocking; both in terms of evolution and placement. I'd be hard pressed to believe there will not be multiple threats over the course of a few weeks. I know there has been a debate as how long this look holds, but I can see it hanging on the longer side. I don't mind the weakening block look b/c as long as the hemispheric configuration remains undisturbed, I could see the block regaining some strength and this would offer another period of potential...maybe even greater potential (for a larger event). larger storms almost invariably occur when the block finishes retrograding and rots... here is a loop of the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms. some of these likely apply to SNE as well, so it's applicable notice how that Pacific trough remains almost the entire time. the PNA is pretty ephemeral and it develops as the block decays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I love the consistency regarding the blocking; both in terms of evolution and placement. I'd be hard pressed to believe there will not be multiple threats over the course of a few weeks. I know there has been a debate as how long this look holds, but I can see it hanging on the longer side. I don't mind the weakening block look b/c as long as the hemispheric configuration remains undisturbed, I could see the block regaining some strength and this would offer another period of potential...maybe even greater potential (for a larger event). Maybe some 40 OZs and Hanna Montanna skibbies in your future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: larger storms almost invariably occur when the block finishes retrograding and rots... here is a loop of the preloading pattern for NYC's largest storms. some of these likely apply to SNE as well, so it's applicable notice how that Pacific trough remains almost the entire time. the PNA is pretty ephemeral and it develops as the block decays Gotcha...thanks! I had that reversed. And you can see the potential that lies with the upcoming look. Obviously whether or not we can get all the moving pieces to time together is another story, but this is why you focus on pattern first then divulge into details once you get within range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe some 40 OZs and Hanna Montanna skibbies in your future. Perhaps its not a coincidence winters went downhill since I gave up both 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, weatherwiz said: Perhaps its not a coincidence winters went downhill since I gave up both We need to get you dysfunctional again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Gotcha...thanks! I had that reversed. And you can see the potential that lies with the upcoming look. Obviously whether or not we can get all the moving pieces to time together is another story, but this is why you focus on pattern first then divulge into details once you get within range. this helps. after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: this helps. after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM Even if it never snows, I have enough in the 'ole @brooklynwx99meteorological spank-tank reservoir to last me all summer. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even if it never snows, I have enough in the 'ole @brooklynwx99meteorological spank-tank reservoir to last me all summer. hey, that's what I'm here for. we have enough debs on amwx to go around and get seconds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 So eps seems to show a 4 wave pattern for the nhem in the long lead time. That can hold for quite awhile if it comes to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, leo2000 said: Pictures of the historic snowstorm in my area of New Glasgow Nova Scotia. Snowfall was 60 inches with snowdrifts making it even higher. Thanks. How long did significantly accumulating snow continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Weeklies are weenish 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 60 for Boston on Saturday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Have to wonder if we're going to get 90% of our seasonal snowstorm in one storm. I bet @Heisyis already looking at his calendar wondering when he can come to SNE. When does @George001 revert back to last years version. Strongly suspect we're about to enter into a period where models show exotic solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 60 for Boston on Saturday? Saturday should be quite warm. Probably see a lot of upper 50's away from the water unless something drastic happens. I wouldn't rule out some places hitting 60-61. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 first it gets warm, then it gets cold. boom 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 49 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Yeah...and this has sort of gone unnoticed. I had two snowmobiling trips planned in northern WI this season, and both were cancelled since they haven't been able to open the trails. The most shocking stat of all is that essentially the entire state of WI has bare ground...on February 6th! There are no words to describe how ridiculous this is. North of 45N, they typically have 10-25+" on the ground now. The entire Midwest had a 7-day period of winter this season - that's it. This reminds me of 18 years ago. In mid-February 2006 a fellow from Corpus Christi called the manager of Aroostook State Park, a few miles west from PQI, asking about snowmobiling. The manager said it was awful in his area but was decent up in the St. John Valley. (Seven weeks earlier PQI had a 25" dump, with 33" at CAR, their greatest on record.) Imagine what the guy from south TX thought when told that northern Maine had crummy snow conditions in Feb. Conditions here in the Maine foothills are fair to poor - snow is there but all the Dec/Jan rain still makes issues at unbridged crossings. Better in the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 60 for Boston on Saturday? Yeah hopefully pop some low 60's! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah hopefully pop some low 60's! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 GYX' current AFD understates the mildness a bit. Yesterday here was +7, today will be +10 or 11, tomorrow should be about the same and the weekend may approach +20. .SYNOPSIS... High pressure gradually builds eastward into our region through the end of the week with dry weather and seasonable to above normal temperature 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan63 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 You'd think there was a thunderstorm going on over by Plymouth at the moment. Those clouds are dark. Quite the contrast with the sunny skies behind my house and dark clouds in the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies are weenish They retrograde the GOA/Aleutian low nicely and go strong -AO/-NAO in pulses which is nice too see. @Typhoon Tip likes to see it oscillate a bit on magnitude since that is where storminess is most likely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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