Damage In Tolland Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I keep thinking back to those dry Euro and CFS month runs that they kept showing for Feb and wondering if some of these op runs are going to trend less and less and be meh or nothing. Hopefully not, but we worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Duration is so overrated. How long does it really snow 1"/hr+ at a given locale in any given storm? Its much more about atmospheric water/dynamics/rates....stalled storms may add a few inches, but occlusion normally ensures its that "days and days of snow" crap that adds like 2-3" per day. Ideally, you get a storm go to go nuts with insane rate, stall and then get captured by another piece of energy diving in, but that is pretty exotic due to wave spacing issues. Agreed for the most part but he’s correct if you’re looking to go super high end. How many storms over 3 feet are less than 24 hours? Almost none of them. Sure, even blizzard of ‘78 or Feb ‘69 had most of the snow fall in a 24 hour period but those 40”+ totals are prob like 28-35” if it doesn’t keep going and going. Same deal with those 40+ burgers in Mar 2001. Even in an occluded state, if you have spokes of energy rotating around a pseudo-stalled ULL, it can reinvigorate the snow bands…even if not to their peak intensity…which helps add on those additional accumulations that would otherwise hit the 3-foot wall that we often see in other high-end storms that lack duration over 24-30 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I keep thinking back to those dry Euro and CFS month runs that they kept showing for Feb and wondering if some of these op runs are going to trend less and less and be meh or nothing. Hopefully not, but we worry. First half of Fen always looked dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed for the most part but he’s correct if you’re looking to go super high end. How many storms over 3 feet are less than 24 hours? Almost none of them. Sure, even blizzard of ‘78 or Feb ‘69 had most of the snow fall in a 24 hour period but those 40”+ totals are prob like 28-35” if it doesn’t keep going and going. Same deal with those 40+ burgers in Mar 2001. Even in an occluded state, if you have spokes of energy rotating around a pseudo-stalled ULL, it can reinvigorate the snow bands…even if not to their peak intensity…which helps add on those additional accumulations that would otherwise hit the 3-foot wall that we often see in other high-end storms that lack duration over 24-30 hours. I think moving forward less stalled storms and more 40" totals within 24 hours will be the trend. But historically speaking, I agree...it said it helps, but its more about rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Haven't seen you in a while, hope you're hangin in there All is good. It's just snow. I'm rooting for a second year of futility at this point. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed for the most part but he’s correct if you’re looking to go super high end. How many storms over 3 feet are less than 24 hours? Almost none of them. Sure, even blizzard of ‘78 or Feb ‘69 had most of the snow fall in a 24 hour period but those 40”+ totals are prob like 28-35” if it doesn’t keep going and going. Same deal with those 40+ burgers in Mar 2001. Even in an occluded state, if you have spokes of energy rotating around a pseudo-stalled ULL, it can reinvigorate the snow bands…even if not to their peak intensity…which helps add on those additional accumulations that would otherwise hit the 3-foot wall that we often see in other high-end storms that lack duration over 24-30 hours. Id say Feb 13 was <24 hrs, it was pretty close.. 23hrs based on the BDR obs. And the majority accumulated in 12 hrs. Same with Jan 2011 that was <18hrs i believe, maybe even 12. While that wasn't 3 feet, we pulled 30" in that short amount of time. But i do agree for the most the really big ones like Mar 2001 and Jan 2005 for E MA are +24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: All is good. It's just snow. I'm rooting for a second year of futility at this point. Well as long as your head isnt wedged in a snowblower thats a win. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 40 minutes ago, tamarack said: More atmospheric water helped, but like Feb 1969 the real key is how long it snowed - 5 days in NS? The thing is, I'm not so sure the waters to the east of NS are that warm. Admittedly this is yesterday's depiction, so maybe they were warmer when the storm began...I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Well as long as your head isnt wedged in a snowblower thats a win. Couldn't happen. Damn thing doesn't work anyway...even after the tune up and work done to it 14 months ago. Luckily there's been no use for it since 2022. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Cold Miser said: Couldn't happen. Damn thing doesn't work anyway...even after the tune up and work done to it 14 months ago. Luckily there's been no use for it since 2022. Turn it on, put rubber bands around the auger and accelerator levers and let it run itself off a cliff. Snowblower suicide 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: The thing is, I'm not so sure the waters to the east of NS are that warm. Admittedly this is yesterday's depiction, so maybe they were warmer when the storm began...I don't know. On a global scale.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Turn it on, put rubber bands around the auger and accelerator levers and let it run itself off a cliff. Snowblower suicide Nah...Just run it off the dock over here right into lava lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Uncle is a big qpf but messy system out at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Uncle is a big qpf but messy system out at 168. I'll take the big QPF and worry the rest later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Id say Feb 13 was <24 hrs, it was pretty close.. 23hrs based on the BDR obs. And the majority accumulated in 12 hrs. Same with Jan 2011 that was <18hrs i believe, maybe even 12. While that wasn't 3 feet, we pulled 30" in that short amount of time. But i do agree for the most the really big ones like Mar 2001 and Jan 2005 for E MA are +24hrs Yeah you can get close, but you never see like a 45-50” total from any of those 18-24 hour storms. It’s always a stalled monster like ‘78, or 1888 or Feb ‘69 or Dec 1992 (higher terrain). That’s why I mentioned to Ray that the “cap” on a shorter duration storm seems to be in that 3 foot range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll take the big QPF and worry the rest later. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This forum is down bad. Extrapolating the end of an icon run Chasing ghost, I've stepped away, Its a waste of time unless something is immanent and there isn't anything, If we get to the weekend and it looks like we have something between the 12-15th, I'll be back in then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Eh, I think we all know the caveats of extrapolating those models. I mean, nobody is saying you absolutely cannot speak of that ever. It's a weather forum amid a very quiet time as it relates to weather events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On a global scale.... Yes, but does the global scale affect particular storm totals in NS? Or we need to look specifically at that storm's ingest regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Southern stream is def lagging northern stream so far on this euro run at 120h 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Yes, but does the global scale affect particular storm totals in NS? Or we need to look specifically at that storm's ingest regions. I think it(the S/W)came from Baffin Island area…no? Pretty dry up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Good write up by Stein on our chances. The globe is a pay site so if you've used it before you have to delete your cookies. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/06/metro/epstein-boston-winter-weather-outlook-look-ahead/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think it(the S/W)came from Baffin Island area…no? Pretty dry up that way. Yeah but it prob had a moisture feed from further south once the storm started developing a legit warm conveyor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Yeah that’s squashed. Ridge axis is decently west though so certainly room for it to improve. Gonna either need more phasing with northern stream or more lagging. This run was the sweet spot to basically crush the whole thing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Suppressed. Winter rolls on… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that’s squashed. Ridge axis is decently west though so certainly room for it to improve. Gonna either need more phasing with northern stream or more lagging. This run was the sweet spot to basically crush the whole thing south. No issues with cold air on that run…just couldn’t get up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that’s squashed. Ridge axis is decently west though so certainly room for it to improve. Gonna either need more phasing with northern stream or more lagging. This run was the sweet spot to basically crush the whole thing south. Not a bad place to be at the moment at a week out either. Many more solutions to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Thinks back to those dry monthly runs and worries….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Suppression is quickly becoming another overused term 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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