kdxken Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 34 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Something will pop up out of nowhere. In March likely. They always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Last year enters the discussion Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk June 2023: Summer lasted 2 days. 1 89 47 68 0.09 2 83 54 68.5 0.12 3 57 43 50 15 0.06 4 47 41 44 21 0.78 5 55 46 50.5 14.5 0.49 6 56 49 52.5 12.5 0.01 7 56 47 51.5 13.5 0.02 8 56 47 51.5 13.5 0.61 9 60 46 53 12 0.51 10 64 48 56 9 0.12 11 73 43 58 7 0.01 12 73 45 59 6 13 64 52 58 7 0.13 14 67 55 61 4 0.04 15 70 56 63 2 0.39 16 68 50 59 6 0.41 17 59 53 56 9 0.94 18 58 48 53 12 0.63 19 65 48 56.5 8.5 20 65 54 59.5 5.5 0.05 21 73 49 61 4 22 76 44 60 5 23 79 46 62.5 2.5 24 73 60 66.5 0.1 25 78 63 70.5 0.00005 26 68 60 64 1 0.31 27 70 58 64 1 0.77 28 68 63 65.5 0.45 29 75 62 68.5 0.84 30 73 62 67.5 0.01 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Still 3 to 6 otg here.. not much melting at all today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Still 3 to 6 otg here.. not much melting at all today Snow is still frozen in my front yard despite being near 40F....but it's shaded and the dewpoint is like 6F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: below normal snowfall and above normal temps doesn't deserve anything more than an F grade....it has felt like winter on about 7 days...and the departure from normal snowfall is going to increase over the next 7-10 days... Low temp for the winter so far has been 11 degrees. On pace to not have a single morning temp below 10 degrees. 9 of the 25 winters here would meet those 2 criteria. I'd hate to be in a class in which the teacher set the curve assuming a 36% flunk rate. Median would probably be no higher than D. Retro low has turned sunny to mostly cloudy this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 31 minutes ago, MBRI said: Thank god you put in the snow stakes so you won't ruin your lawn moving all the snow this year!!!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 So this is interesting... the operational GFS led the GEFS ...which are now apparently leading the GEPs. Actually just getting sick of discussing it ... but, there is very little pattern change at this point in these guidance source. about ...3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there. weird. that's like the coup of all coups ...One model's oddly aberrant solution at a planetary scale, leads all ens means. wow. I mean... that's not like having a different solution with a storm system - it was the whole hemisphere we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks like it wants to move a low nearby or overhead early next week. Mean has advisory type stuff N of the pike....so that probably tells me there's some decent members mixed with the skunk jobs and cutters. I'm not particularly interested in that threat, but I think there's a subtlety growing threat for that Feb 16-18 timerange. I think if we're gonna pull off something major in this pattern, that's the first real chance. Sometimes the first chance is the only chance too....hopefully not this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I guess I should've asked first, but taking the center section of a stratus, jamming it upside down into the snowpack and flipping it over to let it melt should give me a reasonable SWE, right? (and then taking the 10th's to mean inches?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Still 3 to 6 otg here.. not much melting at all today Greenfield is generally quite good with snow retention but outside of shaded yards, like my own, it is bare ground everywhere in the valley. Outside of the elevations and Ray’s area this winter has been garbage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 43 minutes ago, MBRI said: Looks great! What a winter! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 40F for high last 2 days. Sun doing it's thing. Going to look a bit ugly by the wknd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 wow at that 12z op Euro cutter. That's got to be overdone, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Might be time Time for a break… I didn’t say I was upset by it. Simply saying impressive for mid-Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I didn’t say I was upset by it. Simply saying impressive for mid-Winter. Ahh ok…hard to tell sometimes with posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So this is interesting... the operational GFS led the GEFS ...which are now apparently leading the GEPs. Actually just getting sick of discussing it ... but, there is very little pattern change at this point in these guidance source. about ...3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there. weird. that's like the coup of all coups ...One model's oddly aberrant solution at a planetary scale, leads all ens means. wow. I mean... that's not like having a different solution with a storm system - it was the whole hemisphere we'll see So pattern change cancel? oh well, at least we got to see how nice it looked on the modeling for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So pattern change cancel? oh well, at least we got to see how nice it looked on the modeling for a while. oh, it's still changing - it's a matter of to what. these guidances sources are saying the previous notion of a strong and stout +PNA is in trouble - those being the GEFs system and the GEPs. it is unclear what takes place "if" the stouter version goes to squat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So this is interesting... the operational GFS led the GEFS ...which are now apparently leading the GEPs. Actually just getting sick of discussing it ... but, there is very little pattern change at this point in these guidance source. about ...3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there. weird. that's like the coup of all coups ...One model's oddly aberrant solution at a planetary scale, leads all ens means. wow. I mean... that's not like having a different solution with a storm system - it was the whole hemisphere we'll see No Changes?!? Uh oh, I might owe someone an apology... But I don't believe it. Full on ahead to our new pattern! Even if it doesn't come in as even and coordinated as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: oh, it's still changing - it's a matter of to what. the previous notions of a strong and stout +PNA is trouble in some of the guidance - those being the GEFs system and the GEPs. it is unclear what takes place "if" the stouter version goes to squat could mean it favors the interior via Miller Bs that shoot out of the southern stream and are forced to redevelop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: No Changes?!? Uh oh, I might owe someone an apology... But I don't believe it. Full on ahead to our new pattern! Even if it doesn't come in as even and coordinated as planned. guys... ".3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there." does not = no changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Since winters not at my home, I went to look for it, I found it on top of Cannon. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ahh ok…hard to tell sometimes with posts. I have an 18 month old and just started a new job. I’d he happy with Morch starting early. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Pack is still at around 12.5" and now I know it has 4.3" of water content. With the warmer weather coming this weekend we'll see how well it holds up. I'll be sure to take photos of the river behind the house as it swells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Pacific has gone to crap? Hmmm? Last evening pacific looked great. Not going to lie, last year and so far this winter have sucked (I have 20.3" of snow over the past 2 years, when I average around 45" per year at my location, even 21/22 was 13"ish below normal)....Yes the pattern looked great in the 10-15 day range over the past few days, but we are now seeing the Pacific look less impressive as we get within the 10 day window. All the while, losing the nice sustained PNA spike. This is the same song and dance we have seen over the past 2 years, so at this point sadly I expect failure(hopefully wrong). Hopefully we score a snowstorm or 2, but I fully expect lots of potential that ends up being screwed up by 50 shortwaves dancing around each east of the Mississippi.... Lets get 1 big snowstorm and bring on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 14 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Not going to lie, last year and so far this winter have sucked (I have 20.3" of snow over the past 2 years, when I average around 45" per year at my location, even 21/22 was 13"ish below normal)....Yes the pattern looked great in the 10-15 day range over the past few days, but we are now seeing the Pacific look less impressive as we get within the 10 day window. All the while, losing the nice sustained PNA spike. This is the same song and dance we have seen over the past 2 years, so at this point sadly I expect failure(hopefully wrong). Hopefully we score a snowstorm or 2, but I fully expect lots of potential that ends up being screwed up by 50 shortwaves dancing around each east of the Mississippi.... Lets get 1 big snowstorm and bring on Spring! I have 14" or so in 2 years lmao. Never would I thought in my wildest dreams we would have two back to back 2001-2002 type seasons. It's usually 1 rat in between good years like 01-02, 06-07, 11-12, 19-20 etc. This really feels like we just continued 22-23...Part 2. Far from over though but that's where we're at. And I still hear people complain about the snow and cold, it's like what more do you want? This is about as good as it gets if you hate that kind of weather, move to AZ. Edit: and NYC is wild 2.3" last season and 2.3" so far this one. That's insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Not going to lie, last year and so far this winter have sucked (I have 20.3" of snow over the past 2 years, when I average around 45" per year at my location, even 21/22 was 13"ish below normal)....Yes the pattern looked great in the 10-15 day range over the past few days, but we are now seeing the Pacific look less impressive as we get within the 10 day window. All the while, losing the nice sustained PNA spike. This is the same song and dance we have seen over the past 2 years, so at this point sadly I expect failure(hopefully wrong). Hopefully we score a snowstorm or 2, but I fully expect lots of potential that ends up being screwed up by 50 shortwaves dancing around each east of the Mississippi.... Lets get 1 big snowstorm and bring on Spring! Yea We have a small window to score a big event. Once the pac gets more hostile, we’ll need the atlantic to cooperate and call me crazy but we haven’t scored on that type of look since feb 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: I guess I should've asked first, but taking the center section of a stratus, jamming it upside down into the snowpack and flipping it over to let it melt should give me a reasonable SWE, right? (and then taking the 10th's to mean inches?) You need to slide a thin board under it if you can but yea that should work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I have 14" or so in 2 years lmao. Never would I thought in my wildest dreams we would have two back to back 2001-2002 type seasons. It's usually 1 rat in between good years like 01-02, 06-07, 11-12, 19-20 etc. This really feels like we just continued 22-23...Part 2. Far from over though but that's where we're at. And I still hear people complain about the snow and cold, it's like what more do you want? This is about as good as it gets if you hate that kind of weather, move to AZ. Garbage winter so far. It will take a double digit storm to bring us up to a D+ grade here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea We have a small window to score a big event. Once the pac gets more hostile, we’ll need the atlantic to cooperate and call me crazy but we haven’t scored on that type of look since feb 21. I don't think it's a small window at all 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't think it's a small window at all Agree but we will still need things to break right, so we can at least enjoy a region wide storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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