The 4 Seasons Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Timber prayin' for you bud.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I speak for everyone when I collectively opt to puff, puff pass on relying upon blocking to save the day in the face of a ca-ca Pacific. I think it depends on how hostile the PAC is...it doesn't go 2022-2023 on us....at least not yet. If it's just a "meh" PAC rather than overtly hostile, then a solid -AO/NAO can do wonders....that's exactly what happened in February 2021...and if you want to go back further, Feb 1969. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also noting some divergence in the EPS and GEFS out at the end of their runs....GEFS is trying to really push a very strong low into the GOA....Euro keeps it weaker and a bit further west....e.g., GEFS has a rapidly deteriorating PAC while the EPS does not. Both have a potent -NAO/AO though....which would be quite beneficial in the event of a deteriorating PAC, but a more hostile PAC starts to leave you with less wiggle room. Good news is that EPS led the GEFS for the mid-month switch, so hopefully they are more correct. We're also dealing with a potential SSW around the ides....if that happens, it could affect early March. the GEFS kinda looks 2010/2016-ish with that GoA low... it's not a bad thing if the Atlantic is blocked. in fact, a trough like that would allow for strong waves to enter the flow. I think some are scarred by Pacific troughing when it's often been there during prolific periods (though mainly closer to the MA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: prayin' for you bud.. 2.3 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 that's also likely as far east as any Pacific trough gets before a retrograde, which is going to occur the further into the year we get. this is especially the case with the MJO progressing through the central Pacific and Indian Ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I speak for everyone when I collectively opt to puff, puff pass on relying upon blocking to save the day in the face of a ca-ca Pacific. Absolutely. Been there, done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 31 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Heard a bird this morning that my brain associates with spring. We’re on to Morch! #NoChanges Robins here too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEFS kinda looks 2010/2016-ish with that GoA low... it's not a bad thing if the Atlantic is blocked. I think some are scarred by Pacific troughing when it's often been there during prolific periods (though mainly closer to the MA) Yeah although the 2010 block was on epic 'roids. I'd be surprised if we repeat the strength of that block. I'm not overly worried about the pattern, but I wanted to point out differences. A GEFS type evolution would allow more chances for mild-ish days to sneak into the picture even if it's not really a massive impediment to larger coastal storms. The tropical forcing does seem to want to counter it from getting to an actual hostile level as you said....I'd fade torch/snowless when we're in phase 8 in february, since it basically never happens in an El Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 45 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The stress of the season is turning so many of us into different people. Or is it bring out the repressed parts of who we really are??!! Ray, care to comment? I couldn't agree more. Problem is when you want to comment and try to be positive. You get people either given the weenie symbol or tell you to get a life lol. Same goes if we're being negative. The point of all this is everybody's frustrated. That's normal. But in the end it's just weather. There's always hope until the season's done. Some like to harp on it longer than others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Robins here too... A few days ago, I saw 2 very tubby robins in my yard. I know robins don’t migrate but their girth is a function of how much easier finding food has been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, weathafella said: A few days ago, I saw 2 very tubby robins in my yard. I know robins don’t migrate but their girth is a function of how much easier finding food has been this winter. it is like they have been eating at a 24/7 buffet place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah although the 2010 block was on epic 'roids. I'd be surprised if we repeat the strength of that block. I'm not overly worried about the pattern, but I wanted to point out differences. A GEFS type evolution would allow more chances for mild-ish days to sneak into the picture even if it's not really a massive impediment to larger coastal storms. The tropical forcing does seem to want to counter it from getting to an actual hostile level as you said....I'd fade torch/snowless when we're in phase 8 in february, since it basically never happens in an El Nino. i mean, hell, as you said, this was Feb 2021... there was a SE ridge poking up and a large trough straddling the WC. you would have people talking about how poor the Pacific is here, but it's why that blizzard even happened a trough of some sort in the GoA is present for most major storms... it's how you get a robust, moisture laden wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah although the 2010 block was on epic 'roids. I'd be surprised if we repeat the strength of that block. I'm not overly worried about the pattern, but I wanted to point out differences. A GEFS type evolution would allow more chances for mild-ish days to sneak into the picture even if it's not really a massive impediment to larger coastal storms. The tropical forcing does seem to want to counter it from getting to an actual hostile level as you said....I'd fade torch/snowless when we're in phase 8 in february, since it basically never happens in an El Nino. And overall I don’t think the pattern has been awful, just no real cold to draw from. 17” of precip between Dec/Jan is pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Phase 8 in February El Nino since 1975 (when archives of RMM plots began) Feb 1977: None Feb 1978: Feb 7-28 Feb 1983: None Feb 1987: None Feb 1988: Feb 21-29 Feb 1992: None Feb 1995: Briefly Feb 1-2 (Feb 4th was only large storm that year) Feb 1998: Briefly Feb 26th Feb 2003: Briefly Feb 15-16 Feb 2005: Feb 19-28 Feb 2007: Feb 10-13 Feb 2010: Feb 6-28 (sans Feb 22-24 when it looped back to phase 7) Feb 2015: Feb 5-12 Feb 2016: None Feb 2019: Feb 14-23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s like drinking…it brings the repressed parts of our personalities into the forefront. Be careful who you get drunk with... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think it depends on how hostile the PAC is...it doesn't go 2022-2023 on us....at least not yet. If it's just a "meh" PAC rather than overtly hostile, then a solid -AO/NAO can do wonders....that's exactly what happened in February 2021...and if you want to go back further, Feb 1969. I know that, but we just haven't had any luck trying to pull that off of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/4/2024 at 8:02 AM, WinterWolf said: Estcourt Station. It’s ironic that they call it the Big Twenty Township..when it only incorporates two townships lol. Estcourt Station has like 4 people, that is one remote area. Twp20/Range11&12. That combo is probably the biggest township in Maine. (Not town - that's Allagash, comprised of 4 townships.) My first winter (1976) working for Seven Islands included several nights at the Woodlands Improvement camps in E. Station while maintaining boundary lines. When I want to know the coldest temp in Maine, I look up 04741. Also, that 80" was found near the center of Big Twenty, about 12 hours after the end of a big dump - 29.0" at CAR and 26.5" (greatest I've measured, also deepest pack at 65") at our Fort Kent home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It’s been kind of freeing taking a step back from everything a bit. This has been an exhausting hobby for 2+ years now. Ill be happy to track something if it is imminent, but other than that, counting down the days until we get some sustained warmth in here and can turn the page to spring and summer activities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Heard a bird this morning that my brain associates with spring. We’re on to Morch! #NoChanges Little black-and-whites are still calling chick-a-dee-dee, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear the almost-spring phee-bee this weekend. 3rd straight sunny day with a sharp breeze, thanks to the low that may still be burying some places in the Maritimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s been kind of freeing taking a step back from everything a bit. This has been an exhausting hobby for 2+ years now. Ill be happy to track something if it is imminent, but other than that, counting down the days until we get some sustained warmth in here and can turn the page to spring and summer activities. I agree with you about getting away and enjoying some good winter activities, does the soul good. Too much time here is detrimental for sure. Gotta limit time here, when there’s nothing happening. Unfortunately, it’s gonna be months before any sustained warmth is really here for SNE. That’s the harsh reality unfortunately when it’s still February 5th. We got late March through April of misery mist and 45 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, weathafella said: A few days ago, I saw 2 very tubby robins in my yard. I know robins don’t migrate but their girth is a function of how much easier finding food has been this winter. They used to it seemed….? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, tamarack said: Little black-and-whites are still calling chick-a-dee-dee, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear the almost-spring phee-bee this weekend. 3rd straight sunny day with a sharp breeze, thanks to the low that may still be burying some places in the Maritimes. It's the phee-bee I've been hearing the past 2 weeks down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: They used to it seemed….? I think I read maybe 15 years ago that robins retreat into the woods for winter but don’t fly anywhere. Growing up I thought they migrated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I agree with you about getting away and enjoying some good winter activities, does the soul good. Too much time here is detrimental for sure. Gotta limit time here, when there’s nothing happening. Unfortunately, it’s gonna be months before any sustained warmth is really here for SNE. That’s the harsh reality unfortunately when it’s still February 5th. We got late March through April of misery mist and 45 degrees. I mean we hit 97 last April which was my high for the year, so we’re not that far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I mean we hit 97 last April which was my high for the year, so we’re not that far out Yeah but he was talking sustained warmth which I don’t count on before late spring unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 42 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I mean we hit 97 last April which was my high for the year, so we’re not that far out Sustained warmth. It sucked for weeks after that. And that high was still 9 weeks from now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Obviously winter is fun because of snow and potential threats. Tracking a real threat for multiple days is probably one of the most fun things in the world. But other than that, it can be really depressing here. Warm season is just so short. Sure we can get some very warm days in March and April but yup...we don't really do sustained warmth that early. Sometimes we have to wait until like the second half of June for sustained warmth and by then it's really just two months of it and by then we've already peaked in terms of sunset. I know it's just cyclical and we're in a horrific cycle for snowfall right now but hopefully one of these upcoming winters that tide will change. The <5:00 sunsets and close to 7 AM sunrises and chilly/dry/cloudy weather freaking sucks. Its much more enjoyable when snow comes with it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 What sucks up here in SNE, is that even when the snow threats disappear by the end of March(for the most part), we still have like a good 6 weeks(sometimes more) of mostly crap weather here. Oh sure, we’ll get a few days of 65-75 here and there, but it never lasts long(except spring of 12), then we’re back to destructive sunshine and 45-53 degrees, with showers and damp and cold, with BD’s killing us. So I get the sentiment of if it’s not going to snow…then let’s just look for nicer weather and end winter now. But even if that happened, we’re not heading into a particularly nice stretch of weather for our area of the country, when winter does end. So wishing it over, and looking for sustainable nice mild weather is far away for us here in early February. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 With AGW, it seems the shoulder seasons are being extended, and summer and winter are getting shorter. June used to be a pure summer month, now it's just an extension of late April it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 12z.GFS: suppression cityCMC: Congrats Montreal Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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