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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too

i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough\

2097108520_gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240-384(1).thumb.gif.3f1461944c6ac843894bb80b6395d2f8.gif


A couple of questions if you don’t mind:

Besides, a phased, coastal storm, what other kinds of events might this pattern produce?

Will 50-50 be suppressive?

Is there a possibility of Clipper Miller Bs in this pattern?

thanks

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19 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:


A couple of questions if you don’t mind:

Besides, a phased, coastal storm, what other kinds of events might this pattern produce?

Will 50-50 be suppressive?

Is there a possibility of Clipper Miller Bs in this pattern?

thanks

I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the vort gets. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua

I’d take the other side of that wager without hesitation  for ASH and most areas north if we are talking snowfall for Feb into March 

 

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38 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d take the other side of that wager without hesitation  for ASH and most areas north if we are talking snowfall for Feb into March 

 

The pattern looks suppression-y but we'll see, I'd also wager +north - south but that's climo anyway

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37 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d take the other side of that wager without hesitation  for ASH and most areas north if we are talking snowfall for Feb into March 

 

Yeah me too. That western ridge isn’t that far east. In addition, you can see later in the period how the Aleutian low is starting to migrate east and trying to become a GOA low. That will also start making things more precarious the further south you are. 
 

Now maybe the NAO offsets it enough or the Aleutian low never makes it far enough east to beat down the western ridge (weeklies sort of reload it further west in late February/early Mar), but I’d always be leery of things that can push the goods further north because that has been a recurring theme. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah me too. That western ridge isn’t that far east. In addition, you can see later in the period how the Aleutian low is starting to migrate east and trying to become a GOA low. That will also start making things more precarious the further south you are. 
 

Now maybe the NAO offsets it enough or the Aleutian low never makes it far enough east to beat down the western ridge (weeklies sort of reload it further west in late February/early Mar), but I’d always be leery of things that can push the goods further north because that has been a recurring theme. 

Yup. SoP has a 10-14 day window to get it done then we’ll watch NoP tickle themselves to close out the brutal season.

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For sne, it’s really unusual for a winter to flip mid February on.  2006-07 kind of did but more for NNE.  1959-60 growing up in NNJ had the most epic flip with a rock em sock em March after a crappy winter for a 13 year old snow lover.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua

Nashua isn't NNE.

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah me too. That western ridge isn’t that far east. In addition, you can see later in the period how the Aleutian low is starting to migrate east and trying to become a GOA low. That will also start making things more precarious the further south you are. 
 

Now maybe the NAO offsets it enough or the Aleutian low never makes it far enough east to beat down the western ridge (weeklies sort of reload it further west in late February/early Mar), but I’d always be leery of things that can push the goods further north because that has been a recurring theme. 

Remember what I have said all year about that residual cool ENSO GLAAM.

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For sne, it’s really unusual for a winter to flip mid February on.  2006-07 kind of did but more for NNE.  1959-60 growing up in NNJ had the most epic flip with a rock em sock em March after a crappy winter for a 13 year old snow lover.

I would not be suprised at all by an ending like 2007. It's been one of my primary analogs.

That was another case with the forcing so far west that we had a great deal of cool ENSO like Maritime continent influence.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think that this pattern allows for a true high-end event later in the month, generally from a potent southern stream vort traveling underneath the vort and phasing, but yeah, you can get clipper or Miller Bs from the AK ridge. I would say that this probably favors SNE rather than NNE for sure, as there can be some suppression depending on how strong the blocking and associated 50/50 ULL get. I'd feel a lot better in Danbury than Nashua

RAY “He said Nashua and suppression” 

 

IMG_2865.jpeg

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Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet.
 

Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet.
 

Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. 

Exactly plus with that subtropical moisture feed I think we will be fine. 

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Weenies bickering about Suppression and how long any flip can last, and we don’t even know if a concerted flip will even happen yet.
 

Plus Things seem to trend north most times anyways, so suppression is the last thing I’d be worried about at this stage here in SNE/CNE. 

Its going to happen.

What we don't know is how long it lasts and how much snow falls, where.

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19 hours ago, Layman said:

Does that kind of mileage beat you up at all is it totally gear dependent?  A ride like that sounds awesome to me and the pics you guys post look great.  It's something I'd really like to try with the family sometime, although I imagine a rental/guide service won't be doing tons of miles over a few short hours.  

Depends on the amount of traffic on the trails, Weekends there is a lot and by the afternoon, The trails are beat up, We rode back country on Saturday so there was not to many sleds as they stay on the trails, I try going up on the weekdays when there is less traffic and on fresh groomed trails, But the suspension in these sleds make riding good even on wash board trails late in the day.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going to happen.

What we don't know is how long it lasts and how much snow falls, where.

I’d lean that way too…but just being cautious still.  It’s getting closer now, and things still looking good, but we gotta see the “Whites of its eyes.” 

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Depends on the amount of traffic on the trails, Weekends there is a lot and by the afternoon, The trails are beat up, We rode back country on Saturday so there was not to many sleds as they stay on the trails, I try going up on the weekdays when there is less traffic and on fresh groomed trails, But the suspension in these sleds make riding good even on wash board trails late in the day.

Yes, as you know these new suspensions are most impressive now a days. Newer Sleds can vacuum up alot of nastiness that used to be  lousy trail conditions.  But if the trails get really whooped out, then it can still be tough.  But if clubs keep up on things, and temps stay cool, that kind of crap doesn’t happen all too often in the areas where clubs are on top of things. 

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