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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

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Sorry for the OT guys, but worthwhile read during this down time for anyone struggling with addiction, or who knows someone who is. https://45pedrospupils.blogspot.com/2024/02/a-decade-of-reflect

AstronomyEnjoyer
AstronomyEnjoyer

Clear weather tonight and I was able to set out some heavier equipment in the yard now that I've got a grass patch opening up. The setup and the shot.

Hazey
Hazey

Albert Bridge, Cape Breton. Man snow. Epic drift.

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Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 5:21 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

My clown of the night, the 00z GFS run all the way out to 384 hours. This one is going to focus on Atlantic Canada, where several spots are clowned all the way up to 281cm, which is over 9ft. Fun!

clown of the night.png

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Yea, like that will verify...6" in Boston? 

Take the under lol

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 12:09 PM, qg_omega said:
image.png.215725a993222dff8ee1df04d8d4df23.png
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I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward
ssta_graph_nino34.png

@Coastalwx @ORH_wxman @Mitchnick @JBenedet @Typhoon Tip

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 12:32 PM, snowman19 said:

I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward

ssta_graph_nino34.png

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As you should know, the cause for the warming has been the current MJO wave. It's been on the models for at least 8 days as evidenced by the attached Eps 850 wind anomaly forecast from 1/25. It's been on the models longer than that, but I  don't have anything else handy to attach. And considering the Eps have been showing the upcoming pattern change since before 1/25, I think it's fair to say the models have figured it into their forecasts. So to quote a well-respected wx enthusiast, "no changes." Moreover, it's the strong MJO wave that's prompting the threat of a SSW. After this equatorial warming event, the Niño is toast.

ps2png-worker-commands-78fb8c5f97-l9lkf-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-1SA1rf.png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 12:32 PM, snowman19 said:

I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward

ssta_graph_nino34.png

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I realize there's close to 300 pages on the matter out in the main WNC forum ...but I'm willing to hunch that is transient.  There was a pretty significant WWB over the past 2 to 3 weeks in association with a rare feat:  an MJO that actually coupled ...  But, those come and go and as the curve shows, there are many intra-seasonal variances that can be triggered by short duration wind related stressing patterns.  If using the same metrical supposition - we'll see what the MJO desk/CPC thinks about it Monday or Tuesday.  But anyway, it may not represent a real longer term push

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/3/2024 at 1:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

25 and sunny . Weird to get excited about either but oddly I am 

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Maybe you have S.A.D. latency     lol.

Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days.  It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted.  For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days"  - it's just not been very deep.  

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NoCORH4L

NoCORH4L

Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 1:17 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe you may S.A.D. latency     lol.

Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days.  It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted.  For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days"  - it's just not been very deep.  

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Agreed. Clouds good for pack. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 1:17 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe you may S.A.D. latency     lol.

Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days.  It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted.  For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days"  - it's just not been very deep.  

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I liked it because it helped protect the light pack . But with grass blades now showing and nothing to look forward to wxwise .. may as well be sunny 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 1:29 PM, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow Tip will talk about first nape zephyrs.

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Nah ... might be some hints of that appeal, but the real deal is this next Friday and Saturday.  

Well, depending which guidance one chooses.  The blend of the Euro and GGEM?  Ho man.   I don't care what the 2-m layouts depict, if that synopsis pans out under Feb 9 full sun, it will be in the low to mid 60s.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's highly unlikely to go 0-for in that look. 

The other aspect ... due to the climate signal relationship with elevating global PWATs being a constant integral problem to all synoptic manifolds in real f'ing undeniable, incontrovertible time ... trying to ask New England ( of all places and climate ) to go 2 weeks in a wildly amplifying +PNA, is tantamount to not having a great deal of talent in the field of deterministic meteorology -

that's the long way of saying dumb.  

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Posted
Posted
  On 2/3/2024 at 1:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Could end up dry for second half of February but it also might not. It’s a split flow pattern out west. 

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That is a strong STJ underneath that PNA ridge....willing to bet that we get something unless a PV lobe parks itself over Montreal. These longe range CPC charts are of no more value than some of the day 15 deterministic OP runs that draw the ire of so many and result in a barrage of weenie emojis. 

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