RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That looks like all NW cold dry flow there. Theres no southern stream and it screams suppression . We’ll pass on 2 weeks of 26/15 and dry cracked ground and skin That’s a split flow. Plenty of southern juice. I’m skeptical this window is nothing more than a 7-10day hail mary though… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a split flow. Plenty of southern juice. I’m skeptical this window is nothing more than a 7-10day hail mary though… If it’s only 7-10 days…we’ll get one or two shots. Given our conversion rate recently, I’m a bit weary. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a split flow. Plenty of southern juice. I’m skeptical this window is nothing more than a 7-10day hail mary though… Well we’d all have to hedge that way, I mean my god, we haven’t had anything decent lock in for more than a week since 2/21. And when we do get a decent pattern, we strike out lately. So ya, that’d be the worry. But at some point it has to change…but is this it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well we’d all have to hedge that way, I mean my god, we haven’t had anything decent lock in for more than a week since 2/21. And when we do get a decent pattern, we strike out lately. So ya, that’d be the worry. But at some point it has to change…but is this it? My biggest concern is that if we do get this pattern took colder solution for the blocky pattern, some forecast models are showing a dryer air mass for the Northeast. We've had so much rain over the last 8 months, I'm just wouldn't be surprised if things are on the dryer side over the next month here. But it just takes one storm!!! The season is not over until it's over. That's how I always look at every winter, including last winter ( although we know how that turned out ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Folks seem preoccupied with seeking big dawgs . The arriving +PNA saddle bagging the continental mid latitude flow can also result in a procession of middling events. Just sayn' Kev's wet dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 28 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: If it’s only 7-10 days…we’ll get one or two shots. Given our conversion rate recently, I’m a bit weary. You weary, me leary… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well we’d all have to hedge that way, I mean my god, we haven’t had anything decent lock in for more than a week since 2/21. And when we do get a decent pattern, we strike out lately. So ya, that’d be the worry. But at some point it has to change…but is this it? It’s funny how the west last winter can have months of the same pattern but it takes a monumental effort for a favorable east coast pattern which provides a window for one or two events before it vanishes into the north atlantic like the titanic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: The general ambit of the scientific community has employed methods for corroborative data ( from disparate sourcing...) for hundreds of years. From Biology to Geology to Deep Field Astronomy, to Quantum Mechanics... Meteorology, Hydrology ... any disciplinary study that passes through accreditation has corroborated empirical evidence/data. Einstein paced while, " In 1922 an expedition was undertaken to obtain photographs, taken during an eclipse of the sun, from which the bending of light as it passed by a massive body such as the sun could be measured. Such measurements were required to test Einstein's newly proposed Theory of Relativity " As it were ... measurements taken of the position of Mercury showed errors in reality that Newtonian physics could not predict, until application of the GTR (Einsteinian) precisely predicted the actual position. Probably butchering this a little but this is a already completely wrong for a February thread LOL That's just one example. The point is, the necessity to corroborate from unaffiliated sources has always been there. There really is no "why is your data more pertinent than mine" - that's not intrinsic in how accredited science operates. Climate change is soaked with corroborated data - which makes its disposal ( at all ...) therefore all the more intriguing. There are couple of primary reasons for that intrigue that are competing [for greatest cause of our extinction, tongue goes into cheek ] The first of which is, ... we deny because we can - I strongly suspect that is an enabled one. It is enabled because the specter of CC has been too silent for it's slow moving nature, until very recently ... , to penetrate the soft luxury of a provisional state. Like all species on our planet, human beings formulate their understanding of their environs vis-a-vis what is perceivable through the 5 senses. You know ...? sight sound taste touch smell. These are "USB ports" that connect us with the universal CPU. We just have self-imposed evolved a "filtration virus" in the form of convenience addling by everything that occurs inside the Industrial bubble; the same machinery that is toxifying the planet ( not just CC, there's other reasons that will kill you related to everything from PFAs to mircro plastics ...etc... all of it ), also prevents its harm from getting into these USB ports. It's created a false universe of safety inside the grander system that allows it to even exist. Sounds an awful lot like a virus, huh? Hence, people deny because they can ... or are being allowed to, unwittingly. The other reason ( which may have some partial causal relationship with first aspect above...) is that the issue surrounding climate change became politicized decades ago. ... thus has became a target of distrusting. That is the entrance to a rabbit hole of irreconcilable rages, because no one's political view ever succeeded in changing another one's political view without a war. Is there a sub-forum here where these topics are discussed? I only see the tangential posts in these monthly threads and haven't sought out any wider discussions. I can imagine they devolve into the typical sh!tshow if they exist. I'd argue that ones faith in "how accredited science operates" is where the entirety of the thing has the potential to break down. Either sound science is being performed or it's not. Biased politics and/or the finances associated therein mix with science like oil and water. Science should be wholly objective. Can it be, or is it when the biases of politics and/or finances are interjected? It's supposed to be, but my USB ports have witnessed enough oddities in these realms (in a professional capacity) to throw up 404 errors regularly and prove without a doubt that "accredited science" is simply not in many really important instances. A single bias, error or purposeful change done decades ago that has perpetuated through to today can change the entire basis of one's belief. Now, clumsily attempting to tie that to February 2024 weather and stay on topic... It's often brought up in these threads how the 1980's had some rough winters. I remember it being COLD. I remember there being little snow. Some of us are old enough to remember how this tied nicely into the belief at the time that we were entering an ice age. Seems that data and belief was inaccurate. The younger folks here that didn't live through, or have no recollection of the winters of the 80's have a different perspective. Winters have presented as milder and that fits nicely with current belief that things are warming. Could this data and belief also be inaccurate? What does that mean for snow in February 2024? Hard to say, but many are still waiting with bated breath to see if a rodent see's his shadow to predict what's going to happen My un-scientific low-bar prediction: We will see at least one more plowable event of 4" or greater in my area before the season is over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s funny how the west last winter can have months of the same pattern but it takes a monumental effort for a favorable east coast pattern which provides a window for one or two events before it vanishes into the north atlantic like the titanic. Regression is a b!tch! Maybe we get a good event in 2 weeks. Maybe we don't. I, for one, will enjoy 50s/60s late week, next weekend. Traveling for work next week and it looks like sun and 50s where I'm heading, so we sping for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Exciting times 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: Still living at 300+ hours I see. This would normally get you a 21 bun salute. Normally would... but the tenor and attitude of the posts is far different than many of the other annoyances that post here. It's done in actual good fun and with the understanding of what it may or may not turn out to be. It's refreshing and doesn't come across as annoying 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s funny how the west last winter can have months of the same pattern but it takes a monumental effort for a favorable east coast pattern which provides a window for one or two events before it vanishes into the north atlantic like the titanic. Ya, they had a crazy winter kicked in pattern last year for sure. But they were locked into dry and warm for years while we cleaned up too…so there’s that to remember. It all evens out in the end. Let’s hope we get some shots coming up, to take some of the sting away for all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 52 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s a split flow. Plenty of southern juice. I’m skeptical this window is nothing more than a 7-10day hail mary though… It looks like we’d potentially face suppression to me . N stream holds the heavy there . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Exciting times If you going to waste one of your 5 posts, why not use it for something additive? We already know odds are low for anything before Feb 12. What do you think is going happen mid-month? And how long do you think it will last? Is the another "No Changes" or is it "No. Changes." Think of a continuum, with "total troll" at one end, and "contribution of value" at the other end. Where is this post along the continuum? And how might we shift more towards the "value" end of our continuum? 2 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be suprised if it makes it to 3/10. thought you might find this interesting. NAM shows full coupling of the strat and tropo mid-month associated with a final significant warming, which would provide a more stable blocking pattern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The EPS verbatim is NOT suppression. Not with a ridge that far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Trails are flat fast and freshly groomed, Went to the top of Coburn Mtn, 1/16 mil vis, Now eating lunch at the Hawks Nest in the Forks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: thought you might find this interesting. NAM shows full coupling of the strat and tropo mid-month associated with a final significant warming, which would provide a more stable blocking pattern This is what we need. Mid-January I was so busy I didn't get a chance to divulge into this, but was there coupling last month when we had some blocking? I was expecting we would see coupling at some point this winter, though I thought it might be sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: If you going to waste one of your 5 posts, why not use it for something additive? We already know odds are low for anything before Feb 12. What do you think is going happen mid-month? And how long do you think it will last? Is the another "No Changes" or is it "No. Changes." Think of a continuum, with "total troll" at one end, and "contribution of value" at the other end. Where is this post along the continuum? And how might we shift more towards the "value" end of our continuum? lol. It's like getting hold of a genie in a bottle and wishing for a bowl of chicken soup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 31 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: If you going to waste one of your 5 posts, why not use it for something additive? We already know odds are low for anything before Feb 12. What do you think is going happen mid-month? And how long do you think it will last? Is the another "No Changes" or is it "No. Changes." Think of a continuum, with "total troll" at one end, and "contribution of value" at the other end. Where is this post along the continuum? And how might we shift more towards the "value" end of our continuum? Its like me taking the one day that there was a flurry in December and posting "some torch"...its absolutely idiotic. No one expects anything before mid month....its either one of two things: 1) He is an idiot 2) Just trying to be an ass Strongly believe its 2. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Before he plays the victim, I said "idiotic" in that it characterizes the behavior, not the person. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I have no issue with discussing why the pattern later in February may not produce.....but posts like that one have zero value. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: thought you might find this interesting. NAM shows full coupling of the strat and tropo mid-month associated with a final significant warming, which would provide a more stable blocking pattern There is nothing that you can show me that will change my mind for about the next two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 St. Valentine's day massacre on the gfs. Still looks good in long range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its like me taking the one day that there was a flurry in December and posting "some torch"...its absolutely idiotic. No one expects anything before mid month....its either one of two things: 1) He is an idiot 2) Just trying to be an ass Strongly believe its 2. 3) Both 1 & 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Just now, tunafish said: 3) Both 1 & 2. I think he's bright, which is why it irritates me more. If I honestly thought he was that simple, I would have more sympathy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Trails are flat fast and freshly groomed, Went to the top of Coburn Mtn, 1/16 mil vis, Now eating lunch at the Hawks Nest in the Forks. Is Berry's the kinda run down store that overlooks the road and the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It looks like we’d potentially face suppression to me . N stream holds the heavy there . I would always rather play the odds with suppression than pattern dominated by strong southern stream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 13 minutes ago, FXWX said: I would always rather play the odds with suppression than pattern dominated by strong southern stream... right - ... nothing screams a stellar result for winter enthusiasts like a steady inject of warm thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The EPS verbatim is NOT suppression. Not with a ridge that far west. Yes. That’s why I like the look so much…it risks some huggers/inland runners but it has Atlantic blocking to try and counteract that. It’s a very good look. I’m sure we’ll talk about the thousands of ways we can roll snake eyes as we get closer or the pattern progged unravels, but as of now, that’s a look we want. Active/cold/somewhat stable. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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