Cold Miser Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 ...long range clown maps galore this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can I honestly ask you something? If you want so badly to be taken more seriously and have the 5PPD removed, why is your presentation of data so one-sided? I understand that the past two winters have been biased warm with little snowfall, but in the past, you have simply dissapeared during severe bouts of winter weather. I have been trying to give you the benefit fo the doubt, but you make that difficult. Spectrum ...that's why 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Even during the warmst, or coldest of winters...there is always data that runs to the contrary worthy of discussion....anyone viewing information through a single lens is doing themselves and by extension the entire a forum a great disservice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Even @snowman19lately has been making efforts at honest engagement....not sure why that is so difficult for some. There will be a warm up in early February, sure post it....but post everything else, too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can I honestly ask you something? If you want so badly to be taken more seriously and have the 5PPD removed, why is your presentation of data so one-sided? I understand that the past two winters have been biased warm with little snowfall, but in the past, you have simply dissapeared during severe bouts of winter weather. I have been trying to give you the benefit fo the doubt, but you make that difficult. I only disappear when i can’t post, I’ve been on the forums for 20 years 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 35 minutes ago, Bryan63 said: One of those moments where my sarcasm does not come through online. Lol I kinda knew you were… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, qg_omega said: I only disappear when i can’t post, I’ve been on the forums for 20 years Okay, lets wait for mind month and note any changes in your posting content. You seem to always have a bullet in the chamber for those long range inferno charts.....but I never see you post a map with a snow storm or negative anomaly....your like snowman's evil twin. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay, lets wait for mind month and note any changes in your posting content. You seem to always have a bullet in the chamber for those long range inferno charts.....but I never see you post a map with a snow storm or negative anomaly....your like snowman's evil twin. Some people just want to be contrarian. Be it in weather, sports, life, etc. Like this compulsive need to offer the opposite of group think whether they believe it or not. Like if everyone suddenly hated snow and the forum collectively was constantly looking for a 60F day in the winter, I think some of these guys would start posting long range cold maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even during the warmst, or coldest of winters...there is always data that runs to the contrary worthy of discussion....anyone viewing information through a single lens is doing themselves and by extension the entire a forum a great disservice. If it helps anyone ... those probability products are not designed for scalar outlooks ? - people seem to forget that whenever someone posts those hot colors. A 70% chance of above normal only means literally a 70% chance of above normal - that can mean anything ... +0.10 or +10 ... It just is a confidence interval that points which side of 0.0 the expected temperature biases will result. That's all. Nothing else... It shouldn't have to mean 70% chance that someone with Kleenex, lotion and an antisocial penchants gets to e-rape the going sentiment in route to their orgasm because they were raised in a toxic, gay-shading penumbra during critical formulative years. LOL J/k... Also, you can see the pattern change at mid month showing up nicely in the extended 850 mb anomalies. We'll see if these hold ... We could certainly see the arrival of pattern change and have these normalize some - in fact that kind of 'warm correction' sneaking in ... obviously they've been a leitmotif spanning the last 20 years of modeling, regardless. I wouldn't normally bother at such long leads..but, since this is backed by so much suggestive weighting it'll be interesting to see what form winter's swan song actually takes 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even @snowman19lately has been mnaking efforts at honest engagement....not sure why that is so difficult for some. There will be a warm up in early February, sure post it....but post everything else, too. That fact that we are in 2024 and models are less than accurate even within 24hrs leaves plenty of room for discussion and conjecture; none of this is exact and no season is a carbon copy of another. Having said that moving back from FL I couldn’t have asked for two better winters to ease the wife back into the cold weather! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I only disappear when i can’t post, I’ve been on the forums for 20 years 20 years of heinous forecasts and pattern mistakes and pattern misunderstandings 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: That fact that we are in 2024 and models are less than accurate even within 24hrs less plenty of room for discussion and conjecture; none of this is exact and none season is a carbon copy of another. Having said that moving back from FL I couldn’t have asked for two better winters to ease the wife back into the cold weather! Welcome back, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 20 years of heinous forecasts and pattern mistakes and pattern misunderstandings ...misremembering...misgendering...misdemeanor...misfit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 37 minutes ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1752763050245955908?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg Dude your trolling is annoying. This is before the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Well lets hope any "change" ends up with results. I'm not buying much into it until I see it will produce. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 20 years of heinous forecasts and pattern mistakes and pattern misunderstandings Sounds like he's confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Heading to NW Maine today for the next 3 days of sledding fun, So guard the LR and clown maps until i get back, I bet they still show nothing until at least mid month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If it helps anyone ... those probability products are not designed for scalar outlooks ? - people seem to forget that whenever someone posts those hot colors. A 70% chance of above normal only means literally a 70% chance of above normal - that can mean anything ... +0.10 or +10 ... It just is a confidence interval that points which side of 0.0 the expected temperature biases will result. That's all. Nothing else... It shouldn't have to mean 70% chance that someone with Kleenex, lotion and an antisocial penchants gets to e-rape the going sentiment in route to their orgasm because they were raised in a toxic, gay-shading penumbra during critical formulative years. LOL J/k... Also, you can see the pattern change at mid month showing up nicely in the extended 850 mb anomalies. We'll see if these hold ... We could certainly see the arrival of pattern change and have these normalize some - in fact that kind of 'warm correction' sneaking in ... obviously they've been a leitmotif spanning the last 20 years of modeling, regardless. I wouldn't normally bother at such long leads..but, since this is backed by so much suggestive weighting it'll be interesting to see what form winter's swan song actually takes So the question begs to be asked…why didn’t that troll Qg post this map? Or post em both for conversation. We all know the answer to that question. And what kind of poster he is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So the question begs to be asked…why didn’t that troll Qg post this map? Or post em both for conversation. We all know the answer to that question. And what kind of poster he is. I mean that's at the tail end of the ensemble. In his defense, the impending warm up is much more certain than a hr 360 forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Warm up is more for overnight mins as daytime highs aren't in the 60s or anything like that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sounds like he's confused. You would think some could relate to and sympathize with 20 years of bad forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 There is sunshine out my window. Was starting to question if it still existed. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Op 0Z Euro had a +11C 850 mb plumb approaching NYC next week fwiw- …getting precariously close to ‘heat burst’ criteria … Worlds of difference to the op GFS for that time, but again … recent GFS runs have been demonstrative outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Warm up is more for overnight mins as daytime highs aren't in the 60s or anything like that. I’m leaning more progressive than the GFS op’s. which defaults to some sort of interlude of warming. No comment on how but the op Euro seems to be on the extreme end of the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lexclone Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Can I honestly ask you something? If you want so badly to be taken more seriously and have the 5PPD removed, why is your presentation of data so one-sided? I understand that the past two winters have been biased warm with little snowfall, but in the past, you have simply dissapeared during severe bouts of winter weather. I have been trying to give you the benefit fo the doubt, but you make that difficult. I’m just a lurker, but aren’t there a fair number of folks that only pop in with model depictions of severe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 29 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: There is sunshine out my window. Was starting to question if it still existed. And now that the sun is out, snow bombs falling everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 im guessing today or tomorrow will be the last day of snow caked trees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Warm up is more for overnight mins as daytime highs aren't in the 60s or anything like that. The colors are triggering. I honestly think some people see the oranges and reds and think it's going to be 70s and 80s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean that's at the tail end of the ensemble. In his defense, the impending warm up is much more certain than a hr 360 forecast. There really isn’t any defense…he posts 384 hr warm maps all the time Scoots. If the warmth was at 384 and the cold close, he’d post the warmth. He’s a troll. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 55 minutes ago, dryslot said: Heading to NW Maine today for the next 3 days of sledding fun, So guard the LR and clown maps until i get back, I bet they still show nothing until at least mid month. Keep weading West To the burg. Much better snow east of RT 3. Boundary Pond groomed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now