It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[Torch Tiger]

 Looks for a while

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/29/2024 at 1:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Me too. At the very least you guys have had a plethora of 18+ memorable events, which I guess you’re paying the price for,  in somewhat recent years. We haven’t had one since 2013…so I’m not sure what or who we’re paying. 

Expand  

It’s been worse for you even there…I’ve gotten in on alot of 12-18 inchers over the last 10 years too.  Now we scrimping for a couple inches…we’ll really appreciate the next decent one when it comes. 1/7 was somewhat decent however(a low end warning event), close to 8” in that here. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’d like to hear Wills thoughts on Feb

 

At what % do Medium range weeklies , Twitter Mets and ensembles have to fail *in the day 14 -21 time frame * that Amy mention of these to make a prognostication should be couched in a caveat that they are not of significant value at those lead times OR is there a case to be made that day 14++ ensembles have been worse than usual (I was under impression that range was never of much value regarding accuracy )

[rclab]

  On 1/29/2024 at 1:08 PM, Torch Tiger said:

may as well live in Miami

Expand  

Good morning Torch Tiger/everyone. Accu-Weather seems to be looking ai this winters, so far, performance from the sunny side of the street. Stay well. As always …..

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:04 PM, Torch Tiger said:

 Looks for a while

Expand  

Mildish and dry. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:17 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Mildish and dry. 

Expand  

Stein February?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:20 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Stein February?

Expand  

I’d prefer Stein April but yeah, looks boring. 

[WinterWolf]

Maybe now that it looks boring, something pops up. We’ve had some nice looks the last month or so…with not much to show. Maybe now that it looks boring, we do better? Can’t get much worse for a lot of us. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:21 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’d prefer Stein April but yeah, looks boring. 

Expand  

I mean at some point I suppose it was inevitable that the gravy train of QPF would be shut off

The Huge QPF is also what made extreme S CT snowfall anomalies the last 2 winters pretty much epic rats to me 

Much easier to rat with normal to below normal QPF

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean at some point I suppose it was inevitable that the gravy train of QPF would be shut off

The Huge QPF is also what made extreme S CT snowfall anomalies the last 2 winters pretty much epic rats to me 

Much easier to rat with normal to below normal QPF

Expand  

Same here.  Just unreal porkage. Dumbfounding. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is a blockier version of 1973. The past two seasons I have bet against an awful result due to the anticipation of high latitude blocking....but it just hasn't mattered. Its sucked, anway, despite nailing the blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Very frustrating. I give Raindance credit...he nailed that. And no, I didn't copy him.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:05 PM, WinterWolf said:

It’s been worse for you even there…I’ve gotten in on alot of 12-18 inchers over the last 10 years too.  Now we scrimping for a couple inches…we’ll really appreciate the next decent one when it comes. 1/7 was somewhat decent however(a low end warning event), close to 8” in that here. 

Expand  

I’ve had several 12-16 events since 2013 too but we’ve missed the next level events to our south, west, north, and east by like 25miles each. This the longest stretch of not getting 16+ in my life and I grew up in CNJ lol. 

[Allsnow]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is a blockier version of 1973. The past two seasons I have bet against an awful result due to the anticipation of high latitude blocking....but it just hasn't mattered. Its sucked, anway, despite nailing the blocking.

Expand  

Yup. Until we see sustained changes in the pac we will continue with these lean winters. One or two weeks with a okay pacific isn’t enough time to capitalize, 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean at some point I suppose it was inevitable that the gravy train of QPF would be shut off

The Huge QPF is also what made extreme S CT snowfall anomalies the last 2 winters pretty much epic rats to me 

Much easier to rat with normal to below normal QPF

Expand  

Yea. A wet rat looks worse then a dry rat.

[WxWatcher007]

When winters were winters. Walking across the Sound instead of walking into it. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:48 PM, Allsnow said:

Yup. Until we see sustained changes in the pac we will continue with these lean winters. One or two weeks with a okay pacific isn’t enough time to capitalize, 

Expand  

As much eye rolling as this will elicit right now, I still don't totally buy that.....some of this is just plain bad luck after decades of snowing at least excuse imaginable. Shit like not garnering enough separation between PV lobes has and will always happen in any type of regime.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:52 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

When winters were winters. Walking across the Sound instead of walking into it. 

 

Expand  

That last paragraph is wild . People walked across the sound from Long Island to CT

[40/70 Benchmark]

That said, yes...the Pacific is more important.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:52 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

When winters were winters. Walking across the Sound instead of walking into it. 

 

Expand  

They’d look at our winters now and just laugh. 

[George001]

  On 1/29/2024 at 12:58 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We can’t have nice things so expect more of the same in march. 

Expand  

I’m not even asking for big snows at this point, just for winter to feel like winter. As long as temps are above normal that’s not going to happen.

[Allsnow]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As much eye rolling as this will elicit right now, I still don't totally buy that.....some of this is just plain bad luck after decades of snowing at least excuse imaginable. Shit like not garnering enough separation between PV lobes has and will always happen in any type of regime.

Expand  

That’s fair, we haven’t had much break our way in years. It does seem like when we do get a favorable window the pacific orientation spoils the fun. 

[George001]

There is a clipper threat next week. Hopefully that can deliver and give us a few inches of snow even if the big threat is squashed. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:59 PM, Allsnow said:

That’s fair, we haven’t had much break our way in years. It does seem like when we do get a favorable window the pacific orientation spoils the fun. 

Expand  

Pacific certainly isn't helping....it's a bit of both... bad luck and a bad PAC.

[Allsnow]

  On 1/29/2024 at 3:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pacific certainly isn't helping....it's a bit of both... bad luck and a bad PAC.

Expand  

Agreed 

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:52 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

When winters were winters. Walking across the Sound instead of walking into it. 

 

Expand  

Yore.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:46 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very frustrating. I give Raindance credit...he nailed that. And no, I didn't copy him.

Expand  

What was his idea?

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:48 PM, Allsnow said:

Yup. Until we see sustained changes in the pac we will continue with these lean winters. One or two weeks with a okay pacific isn’t enough time to capitalize, 

Expand  

Exactly!!

[Brian5671]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:49 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. A wet rat looks worse then a dry rat.

Expand  

It’s been awful 15 inches of rain here since 12/1

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/29/2024 at 2:52 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

When winters were winters. Walking across the Sound instead of walking into it. 

 

Expand  

“The Hard Winter” of 1779-1780 – Emerging Revolutionary War Era