It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread

[wx2fish]

Gonna be a weenie clown map worth hanging on the wall on that run 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:36 PM, CoastalWx said:

Holy shit that run went wild.

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Reinvigorated it too around 234-240 with another vort lobe. Almost reminds me of Dec ‘92 the way that happened on the Saturday after the initial violence on Friday. 
 

Highly doubt we see anything from that but there’s a low probability we can squeeze a shortwave underneath. 

[RDRY]

GFS at 240 

You liked that first snowstorm, here it is again.

[brooklynwx99]

LOL

[MJO812]

Gfs is just insane 

[brooklynwx99]

are we even punting at this point for storm potential? let alone a torch

[ORH_wxman]

Not too often you get a pattern in early February that could produce a big snowstorm or 60F depending on only minor differences in the handling of the central CONUS block/ridge. 

[qg_omega]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:43 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

are we even punting at this point for storm potential? let alone a torch

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lol its fake, a country wide torch is much more likely then the GFS shown pattern

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, qg_omega said:

lol its fake, a country wide torch is much more likely then the GFS shown pattern

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Well, if anything even remotely resembling the 12z GFS ever did verify, then you probably wouldn't mind the 5PPD restriction nearly as much for about a month or 3.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/26/2024 at 3:50 PM, CoastalWx said:

I do see how there could be potential for sure. I’m not totally zeroing out the chance. 

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  On 1/26/2024 at 4:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

LOL

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@CoastalWxWIll be offering clinics on nuanced thinking...perhaps a few guest speaking engagements, as well.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, if anything even remotely resembling the 12z GFS ever did verify, then you probably wouldn't mind the 5PPD restriction nearly as much for about a month or 3.

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but… it’s fake! right? RIGHT???

[DJln491]

That was a fun run to scroll thru starting at like hr 192.  Coastal areas get screwed, *only* 14-20"  

[brooklynwx99]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, qg_omega said:

lol its fake, a country wide torch is much more likely then the GFS shown pattern

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i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:31 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Ok that’s funny on the 12z GFS

 

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Mm... credit our insight my friend -

not to be dink but it doesn't make zero sense.  Whether it plays out that way?    It's almost less relevant when in the business for just wanting to have the vision ability, because the fact that it's there in the model means that the physics are plausible. 

so the validation is already had.  

[Modfan2]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:04 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility

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DIT growing a mullet is a possibility.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/26/2024 at 3:46 PM, Layman said:

 

FYI @40/70 Benchmark, I blame you for this.

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LOL ha hahahahaha...  that's why I wrote it -

[weathafella]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:06 PM, Modfan2 said:

DIT growing a mullet is a possibility.

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lol…it’s probably not.

[Go Kart Mozart]

This is a rather long fetch of easterlies at 850, lol.

[mreaves]

  On 1/26/2024 at 4:36 PM, wx2fish said:

Gonna be a weenie clown map worth hanging on the wall on that run 

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I'm sure we'll see 20 or 30 of them soon.

[Ginx snewx]

Just lock it up, close the forum until mid Feb

[JKEisMan]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:19 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Just lock it up, close the forum until mid Feb

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Was just about to post -- you just beat me to it.

Too pretty not to have it out there.

[Brian5671]

All will be forgiven if that happens....

[Prismshine Productions]

Need a wall hanger anyone?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[SJonesWX]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:15 PM, mreaves said:

I'm sure we'll see 20 or 30 of them soon.

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[Prismshine Productions]

Delay that blizzard to the 5th/6th and let it come

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:11 PM, weathafella said:

lol…it’s probably not.

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The day I grow long hair is the day I drive off the bridge into the CT River 

[H2Otown_WX]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:24 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

Need a wall hanger anyone?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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@dryslot hanging from a moose antler?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 feet for Dave and a foot here. Pain.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:24 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

Need a wall hanger anyone?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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It’s not a complete portrait until you post the kuchie. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/26/2024 at 5:06 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... credit our insight my friend -

not to be dink but it doesn't make zero sense.  Whether it plays out that way?    It's almost less relevant when in the business for just wanting to have the vision ability, because the fact that it's there in the model means that the physics are plausible. 

so the validation is already had.  

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Perfectly stated. Same thing goes for last week, despite the synoptic failure.