Prismshine Productions Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 Eric Webb got a fun take Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Hazey said: I'm starting to wonder if the GFS is suffering from some sort of de-amplification bias. That s/w on the 1st is sailing off ESE to Bermuda. Been doing that a fair amount this season. Other way around ... the GFS, in fact ... all global models tend to over amplitude in the mid and extended range, and as the features get nearer upon future cycles, they correct downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Eric Webb got a fun take Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Hopefully in March we can make up for the snow that we missed in December. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Other way around ... the GFS, in fact ... all global models tend to over amplitude in the mid and extended range, and as the features get nearer upon future cycles, they correct downward. Except when the GFS uses the N stream to bully the s stream and is too far se with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Well if we can manage to grab a pack, the euro op would be a good way too keep it into Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Except when the GFS uses the N stream to bully the s stream and is too far se with storms. The same logic can be applied to the N stream, no? I haven't looked at any verification %s recently but I'm fairly confident the gfs has improved slightly with that "bully". I'm sure someone knows offhand and can correct me. NOT saying it (or other models, but it's been gfs bane) doesn't continue to do that or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Tiger Torch! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 really strong omega block showing up on the GEFS. wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath... would probably favor the MA but still intriguing regardless, wouldn't be much of a torch here with flow coming out of northern Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 EPS looks like GEFS too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i'm just basing it off of the general pattern progression... the one on the weeklies makes sense you retract the Pacific jet and it leads to ridging over the WC and AK via an Aleutian Low. there's excess momentum leading to a trough over the SW US. that trough is expelled via the -EPO forming... that trough gets replaced by a +PNA the SW US trough connects with the N Atl trough that's already present... this then leads to a E US trough as well as wave breaking that assists the development of a -NAO. at that point, you are left with the pattern on the weeklies are the weeklies correct? who knows, they could absolutely be wrong. I can tell you that the progression they're showing makes a lot of sense, though If you live anywhere south of New England, you better pray that the weeklies are right about 2/15 and beyond because that’s put up or shut up time, last shot. You can’t kick the can anymore at that point. Too little, too late. If it fails, good luck punting mid-late February and hoping some storybook miracle happens in March, game over time then 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: really strong omega block showing up on the GEFS. wonder if you can get a bowling ball to slip underneath... would probably favor the MA but still intriguing regardless, wouldn't be much of a torch here with flow coming out of northern Canada heh... here's the arriving +PNA, annotated box below I've been noticing that the models are en masse transporting the PNA configuration into that region over the continent. Bizarre ... They start manifesting the +d(PNA) well enough ( basically now...) but before it can mature they dislodge the ridge and transport it to that location and park there. Meanwhile, I don't know wtf to call that Pacific because the ridge around 140 W completely shuts down any polar or southern stream jet(s). It's all weird - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: If you live anywhere south of New England, you better pray that the weeklies are right about 2/15 and beyond because that’s put up or shut up time, last shot. You can’t kick the can anymore at that point. Too little, too late. If it fails, good luck punting mid-late February and hoping some storybook miracle happens in March, game over time then No one is kicking the can. Open your eyes and see what the models are showing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one is kicking the can. Open your eyes and see what the models are showing. We've been kicking the can the whole winter-first it was big pattern change late Dec-that got moved to mid Jan, 8 days of cold and a couple minor/moderate events then right back to the torch now we waiting for something mid Feb....classic ratter type winter where it's always 10+ days away....and meanwhile the warmth is through the roof--torch December and even Jan will finish above normal.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one is kicking the can. Open your eyes and see what the models are showing. Read my frigging post. I didn’t say anyone kicked the can. I said, IF IT (mid-late February) FAILS!!!!!!!!! And IF it does, it’s too late to kick the can at that point. Stop with your attacks everytime you think someone dares to say anything but NYC is going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with feet upon feet of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, snowman19 said: Read my frigging post. I didn’t say anyone kicked the can. I said, IF IT (mid-late February) FAILS!!!!!!!!! And IF it does, it’s too late to kick the can at that point. Stop with your attacks everytime you think someone dares to say anything but NYC is going to turn into an arctic cold tundra with feet upon feet of snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: We've been kicking the can the whole winter-first it was big pattern change late Dec-that got moved to mid Jan, 8 days of cold and a couple minor/moderate events then right back to the torch now we waiting for something mid Feb....classic ratter type winter where it's always 10+ days away....and meanwhile the warmth is through the roof--torch December and even Jan will finish above normal.... February was always supposed to be the wintry month according to many meteorologists 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Enjoy the NYC snowstorm Sun/Mon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Fight. NYCers fighting in SNE! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fight. NYCers fighting in SNE! bringing the absolutely stale, jaded taste of the NYC subforum to SNE. what a treat! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Lack of snow has some going over the edge. Something will surprise us in the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If you live anywhere south of New England, you better pray that the weeklies are right about 2/15 and beyond because that’s put up or shut up time, last shot. You can’t kick the can anymore at that point. Too little, too late. If it fails, good luck punting mid-late February and hoping some storybook miracle happens in March, game over time then i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Lack of snow has some going over the edge. Something will surprise us in the next couple weeks. 3 garbage winters in a row-everyone is losing their minds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Lack of snow has some going over the edge. Something will surprise us in the next couple weeks. Short weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Eric Webb got a fun take Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk snowman has officially resigned from the Eric Webb fan club. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: snowman has officially resigned from the Eric Webb fan club. Until the strong Nina next winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i don’t think anyone is arguing that, but there’s no reason why that pattern wouldn’t occur. can you come up with an actual reason on modeling right now for that to go up in flames? an actual reason, not just “if everything single thing possible goes wrong, the rest of the winter will suck.” that doesn’t count Never said I think it’s going down in flames. I have no idea whether it’s going to be right or not. We’ll know soon though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Until the strong Nina next winter I think its more likely to end up neutral than anything else 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Tiger Torch! Euro sucks nowadays, though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Euro sucks nowadays, though ? Eps doesn’t agree with the op for that type of cold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Until the strong Nina next winter I'm not familiar with how a strong nina would affect the East. But I know here in the lakes there's actually a decent chance of having a very stormy winter. Big on roller coaster patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now