RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: +PNA, -NAO, just in time for Valentines Day Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meh. Moonshine Productions? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: +PNA, -NAO, just in time for Valentines Day Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I don’t think you know how to read 500mb maps, maybe @brooklynwx99 can help. He lives at 500mb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: I have a feeling if this change is going to be real, the models are rushing it and it probably happens post Valentine’s Day I have a feeling it will wait until March to happen so we can freeze our asses off while hoping for a miracle bowling ball that won't work out except in high eles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Around 9" I think. If you use the more long term (not 30 yr) probably more mid 40s avg. The only way I may entertain it is if we get 6+ next week. Otherwise I don't see anything that says "wow" to me for a good Feb at the moment. Sure it could happen..but just what I see. I think areas that got hammered in the big interior storm earlier in the month have a shot, but we are screwed. I average around 50-55 I think, it would take a very big second half to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 For BOS maybe around 25 inches is what I’m thinking right now for the season. The upcoming pattern and threat appears to favor the interior again. I don’t think it will be an awful snow season for say Ray Will and others living more inland, but I do think the coast is cooked. I’m thinking there’s a sharp gradient somewhere 20 or so miles NW of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, George001 said: For BOS maybe around 25 inches is what I’m thinking right now for the season. The upcoming pattern and threat appears to favor the interior again. I don’t think it will be an awful snow season for say Ray Will and others living more inland, but I do think the coast is cooked. I’m thinking there’s a sharp gradient somewhere 20 or so miles NW of me. Not an unreasonable take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, George001 said: For BOS maybe around 25 inches is what I’m thinking right now for the season. The upcoming pattern and threat appears to favor the interior again. I don’t think it will be an awful snow season for say Ray Will and others living more inland, but I do think the coast is cooked. I’m thinking there’s a sharp gradient somewhere 20 or so miles NW of me. What do they have now? 6? They are going to need a bonafide warning event to get there. I’ll take the under on 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What do they have now? 6? They are going to need a bonafide warning event to get there. I’ll take the under on 25 I think closer to 8”. They should be able to pull off another 22”+ during the next 60 days, which is the height of snowfall climo, in a backloaded nino. But the way variance is running, betting the under is probably the sharp play. I just wouldn’t do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What do they have now? 6? They are going to need a bonafide warning event to get there. I’ll take the under on 25 Bos needs 2 warning events or one biggie to get up to 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think closer to 8”. They should be able to pull off another 22”+ during the next 60 days, which is the height of snowfall climo, in a backloaded nino. But the way variance is running, betting the under is probably the sharp play. 30 is aggressive, but possible if we don’t waste more than 1 week in Feb. I’m leaning more towards the pattern remains bad until mid Feb based on current long range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 41 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I don’t think you know how to read 500mb maps, maybe @brooklynwx99 can help. He lives at 500mb no, i seem to be living in your head. at least ask me to pay rent 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, George001 said: 30 is aggressive, but possible if we don’t waste more than 1 week in Feb. I’m leaning more towards the pattern remains bad until mid Feb based on current long range guidance. What do they avg in Feb and Mar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What do they avg in Feb and Mar? I’m not entirely sure, I think around 20 or so inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 That very amplified PNA ridge keeps showing up on ensembles, so you have to think that is happening post Feb 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 22 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: who knows. going AN every year does not provide much value, though https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1742283208467611750?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: That very amplified PNA ridge keeps showing up on ensembles, so you have to think that is happening post Feb 5. 6z gefs was nice in long weenie range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1742283208467611750?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg That guys loves posting those stats, it's been old for a while, I think we all understand that we've been warming for a while.. Let's talk about something interesting for a change .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 6z gefs was nice in long weenie range It is hard to be patient but the same has been showing up and some form or another for several days now I think on all the ensembles and the weeklies? You have to think we get a good stretch of winter with several chances, perhaps after February 5 maybe for a month. Patience is hard, but it could be rewarded with a nice stretch of winter before a muddy spring. up here it hasn’t been too bad this eeinter. as we’ve had lots of stretches with at least a few inches of snow on the ground that has stuck around and made for great walks in the woods. I know it’s been a lot tougher in southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 6z gefs was nice in long weenie range Nice for warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, qg_omega said: Nice for warmth? February isn't going to be warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, qg_omega said: Nice for warmth? That looks warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: It is hard to be patient but the same has been showing up and some form or another for several days now I think on all the ensembles and the weeklies? You have to think we get a good stretch of winter with several chances, perhaps after February 5 maybe for a month. Patience is hard, but it could be rewarded with a nice stretch of winter before a muddy spring. up here it hasn’t been too bad this eeinter. as we’ve had lots of stretches with at least a few inches of snow on the ground that has stuck around and made for great walks in the woods. I know it’s been a lot tougher in southern New England. I would also say we have been wet for so many months we are due for a prolonged stretch of dry weather. Now does that come in February or is it this spring or summer?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: That guys loves posting those stats, it's been old for a while, I think we all understand that we've been warming for a while.. Let's talk about something interesting for a change .. Tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: I would also say we have been wet for so many months we are due for a prolonged stretch of dry weather. Now does that come in February or is it this spring or summer?? Doesn’t look like February will be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Now this is a wave determined to die, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Now this is a wave determined to die, lol Previous runs of EPS and GEFS had the wave dying in phase 6, now they both bring it into phase 8....been a theme all winter in the models trying to push it into the COD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: That guys loves posting those stats, it's been old for a while, I think we all understand that we've been warming for a while.. Let's talk about something interesting for a change .. He and Wankum wack it to H5 ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Nice for warmth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: February isn't going to be warm I won't be stunned it ends up marginally above normal...it won't be a torch like December and probaby cooler than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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