Countdown to Winter 2024-2025

[eyewall]

Well we have managed to have another dumpster fire of a winter as of the time of this post for 2023-2024 so here is to looking well ahead when it may be over 1000 days for some since the last 1 inch or greater of snowfall.

[wncsnow]

uhm.. yay?  

 

 

 

[buckeyefan1]

[wncsnow]

Tick Tock

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Monthlies already showing an unfavorable pacific but there may be an opportunity for 36 hours of a split flow pattern... (JK)looks like we're running a la nina into the summer, so wouldn't be surprised if we have another warm/dry start to next winter.

[Upstate Tiger]

CPC predicting rapid return to Nina conditions this summer and increasing through fall.  That makes 4 out of 5 right?  Can we ever get a neutral anymore?  

[eyewall]

22 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

CPC predicting rapid return to Nina conditions this summer and increasing through fall.  That makes 4 out of 5 right?  Can we ever get a neutral anymore?  

Neutral would be good, but yeah it would make 4 out 5 winters La Nina years.

[Upstate Tiger]

Probably just click bait but at least something to read during these rainy spring days...

 

https://www.einpresswire.com/article/685988510/2025-winter-outlook-united-states-and-canada

 

[GaWx]

On 4/10/2024 at 12:48 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

Probably just click bait but at least something to read during these rainy spring days...

 

https://www.einpresswire.com/article/685988510/2025-winter-outlook-united-states-and-canada

 

 

2024-5 will imo likely be much colder than 2023-4 in much of Canada into the N Plains and upper Midwest (it almost has to be much colder there after last winter's record warmth, especially since La Nina is typically cool to cold there), but also warmer in the SE vs the near to slightly AN of 2023-4. It will likely also flip in the SE, too, as they will likely have the return of the dominating SE ridge thanks to La Nina and the continuing W Pac marine heatwave/-PDO. I was excited about 2023-4 potential in the SE, but not at all for 2024-5. Regardless, winter is always my favorite season as it is a near guarantee that it will be 25+ F colder than winter even down here as well as being typically the most volatile season/larger ups and downs.

[wncsnow]

On 4/11/2024 at 1:56 PM, GaWx said:

 

2024-5 will imo likely be much colder than 2023-4 in much of Canada into the N Plains and upper Midwest (it almost has to be much colder there after last winter's record warmth, especially since La Nina is typically cool to cold there), but also warmer in the SE vs the near to slightly AN of 2023-4. It will likely also flip in the SE, too, as they will likely have the return of the dominating SE ridge thanks to La Nina and the continuing W Pac marine heatwave/-PDO. I was excited about 2023-4 potential in the SE, but not at all for 2024-5. Regardless, winter is always my favorite season as it is a near guarantee that it will be 25+ F colder than winter even down here as well as being typically the most volatile season/larger ups and downs.

So you're saying a big portion of the SE could go three straight winters without any snow?

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

So you're saying a big portion of the SE could go three straight winters without any snow?

 Decent chance for trace or none for big portion of non-mountainous SE as of how it looks now. But we all know how unpredictable snow is as many can easily go from no to well AN snow with one major storm. Thus, I feel more comfortable about the chances for a mild winter than chances for little or no snow in significant part of SE. Then again, the temp. fcast is far from certainty 

[eyewall]

Time to revive this thread now that the mountains had their first snow. As for those east of there in NC I think we zero out for a third consecutive year with the return of a dreaded La Nina.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Time to revive this thread now that the mountains had their first snow. As for those east of there in NC I think we zero out for a third consecutive year with the return of a dreaded La Nina.

Almost neutral-weak La Niña might be more helpful than a strong El Niño or string La Nina we’ve become accustomed to last 5 years. Blocking has been excellent late summer-now. I’m sure that collapses but I feel better this year.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Almost neutral-weak La Niña might be more helpful than a strong El Niño or string La Nina we’ve become accustomed to last 5 years. Blocking has been excellent late summer-now. I’m sure that collapses but I feel better this year.

1. On RONI basis (relative ONI that takes into account the very warm global tropical SST anomalies overall) La Niña is very likely already bordering moderate.

2. Blocking in summer/fall has very little or no correlation to that in winter. Plus NAO was positive in August and has returned to positive.

3. PDO remains near record strong negative due to W Pacific marine heatwave.

4. That in combo with La Niña and all models showing a mild SE/good SE ridging (warmest of the E US in many cases) makes me pretty confident that this winter will be warmer than 23-24, which was NN to slightly AN, in SE.

5. This would be good news for W NC folks still then without shelter/heat.

6. Regarding the next potential chilly winter in the SE, I’m already looking forward to 25-26 potential due to a possible Modoki El Niño per the last two CANSIPS runs.

7. Regardless of how mild is this winter, winter is normally my favorite seasonas temperatures are near guaranteed to be 25+ colder than summer and RHs lower, great for walking!

[olafminesaw]

The silver lining is that any amount of snow is going  to feel great, both because the expectations for this year are so low and also because of the ongoing snow drought. Looking at the last 30 years, about a quarter of the time GSO gets less than 2" of snow in a season. Given the inherent uncertainty of long range forecasting, I think we still have a decent shot at a little snow event here or there, even if the rest of the season is a torch.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

The silver lining is that any amount of snow is going  to feel great, both because the expectations for this year are so low and also because of the ongoing snow drought. Looking at the last 30 years, about a quarter of the time GSO gets less than 2" of snow in a season. Given the inherent uncertainty of long range forecasting, I think we still have a decent shot at a little snow event here or there, even if the rest of the season is a torch.

 That’s the way I’ve always felt down here about wintry precip and much more to the extreme. It is so rare that I don’t even expect a T in any one winter. Most winters don’t even get a T. Thus, just a T here is a big deal. Last one was nearly 7 yrs ago! For me winter mainly means up and down temps (with some wild swings) with much colder and drier air overall vs rest of year and a few nasty cold rains. That’s plenty enough to make it my favorite season. Wintry precip, even just a T, is never expected but always a hope as a rare bonus.