Stebo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Yeah I think there is just too much focus on the power aspect when in reality the travel aspect is much more dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Yeah I think there is just too much focus on the power aspect when in reality the travel aspect is much more dangerous.Last year's ice storm in far northern Illinois has minimal if any road impacts and tremendous infrastructure impacts. That was our worst ice storm since I've been here, definitely worse impacts than 2/19/19. Honestly tough to say how the road impacts will play out tonight, especially if temps come up close to freezing with the aforementioned lighter winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Fascinating insight into your world as always @RCNYILWX thanks for sharing! I saw in the IWX media briefing there’s potential for wind gusts to 20 mph and that led me to believe there would be an increased risk of outages. But that appears to be in the early stages of this event before winds decrease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Last year's ice storm in far northern Illinois has minimal if any road impacts and tremendous infrastructure impacts. That was our worst ice storm since I've been here, definitely worse impacts than 2/19/19. Honestly tough to say how the road impacts will play out tonight, especially if temps come up close to freezing with the aforementioned lighter winds. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I'd have to imagine the roads will be bad considering how cold it was and for how long. Not quite to the magnitude of the ice storm after the Polar Vortex came south in 2014, but I do think it will be significant, especially with moderate precip rates vs heavy, limiting run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looking like a solid 2-4" maybe 3-5" event for around here. Ill gladly take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Freezing drizzle already in South Bend. Advisory start time has been pushed up to noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sounds like multiple interstate closures downstate due to ice/wrecks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Lots of sirens right now. Probably a wreck somewhere close on these rural roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 not sure how good the GFS is with freezing rain 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Can’t see out the front of the house (south facing), all windows are iced over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: not sure how good the GFS is with freezing rain 12z GFS nailed the ice storm that hit SE Michigan last February. But just like anything that model is the one that won out with that event. We will see this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Mesoscale Discussion 0083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0917 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern/northeastern IL...northern IN...far southern MI and far northwest OH Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 221517Z - 221915Z SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is expected through the morning hours with rates of 0.01-0.03 in/hr possible. Some mixed-phase precipitation is also possible early. DISCUSSION...As of 15 UTC, regional radar mosaic imagery and surface observations showed a broad area of light to moderate wintry precipitation across parts of northeastern IL. Over the last hour, automated reports of unknown precipitation type and freezing rain have gradually become more numerous as the precipitation has expanded over an air mass with surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20s F. Driven primarily by low-level warm advection, light to moderate precipitation is expected to continue to move east/northeast this morning. Light snow has been observed across parts of southwest lower MI and northwest IN. However, observed and modified model soundings show an elevated warm nose of 1-2 C between 1-2 km AGL will gradually advect northeastward over the next few hours. While some snow and sleet are possible ahead of the main area of precipitation, gradually deepening of the elevated warm layer to near 600-800 m will favor a transition to predominately freezing rain. Rain rates of 0.01-0.03 in/hr are possible above favorable surface temperatures for rapid ice accretion. The most likely corridor for impactful freezing rain appears to be from northeastern IL into northwest IN and far southwest lower MI through this morning. Hi-res CAM guidance has been poor thus far in handling the evolution of the precipitation field. While low-level warm advection may wane slightly through the day, observed low and mid-level ascent appears strong enough to continue to support precipitation into the early afternoon. Given the cold surface temperatures and melting layer aloft, freezing rain appears likely. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Thick glaze over everything in St. Louis, temperatures are now right around the freezing mark. Per NWS airport obs, we have ~.15 of precip that's fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sidewalks very slick downtown. Can only imagine what it’s like at home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, mimillman said: Sidewalks very slick downtown. Can only imagine what it’s like at home I almost ate shit about five times so far today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I almost ate shit about five times so far today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I almost ate shit about five times so far today Dont want to do that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 Not on radar but it's freezing drizzling here already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Temps seem to be rising quicker than expected here in Central IL, sitting at 31.2 IMBY, hopefully that’ll help keep ice totals down during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, bowtie` said: Funny you post that. I just bought myself a set of those same ones because I busted my ass 5 times last week and fell thru ice crossing a creek during work. Had a cheap pair but lost those last week also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 There's a light glaze on most surfaces. Untreated roads and sidewalks are very slick, but most people seem to have gotten the message and got the salt down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Power just went off for about 10 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like this will NOT be an Ice Storm Warning event. IWX AFD: Key messages: *Freezing rain tonight through Tuesday morning. Ice accumulations of 0.10 to 0.25 inch. *Treacherous travel Tuesday morning, before a transition to rain in the afternoon. Mapped ice accumulations have been reduced with the afternoon forecast package, as to not exceed 0.25". Please note that only a glaze of ice can cause significant travel issues. The messaging within the Winter Weather Advisory remains, "total ice accumulations of one tenth to a quarter of an inch.". An anticipated break in the precipitation, low wind speeds, and moderate rain rates will all work to limit FZRA accumulations much beyond 0.25". Furthermore, the lack of a blocking high pressure to our north and anticipated deep southerly flow will limit the risk of a significant ice storm. Regardless of the headline title, hazardous travel conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday morning. Air temperatures have warmed to near freezing this afternoon, with pockets of freezing rain being reported. Slippery travel conditions have been confined to the western and northwestern reached of the forecast area. This precipitation is the result of modest warm air advection ahead of a weak trough that has moved through the Great Lakes. The weak forcing, paired with our initial dry air mass, has limited precipitation rates thus far. However, light rainfall rates are very efficient with respect to ice accumulation; hence the slippery travel noted above. Amid southwest flow, freezing rain is expected to spread northeast through the forecast area tonight. There is high confidence that impacts to travel will become more common as the night goes on. This, as deeper moisture arrives and the thermal gradient aloft amplifies primarily toward and after midnight, bringing widespread freezing rain to the forecast area. The overnight timing and the preexisting cold temperatures continue to provide high confidence in accumulating ice tonight. Toward dawn, moderate rainfall rates will ease icing efficiency, followed by a gradual warming trend from south to north in the afternoon. A transition to all rain is expected Tuesday afternoon. Therefore,the Winter Weather Advisory end time remains at 1pm EST Tuesday. It is plausible the air temperature in the vicinity of Hillsdale, MI could linger below freezing a a touch beyond that; something to be monitored on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Already getting slick here with the fzdz and fzra here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 In Toledo and the temp is pushing 37. Not sure if there is warmer push than modeled, but it's gonna need to cool off significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Already getting slick here with the fzdz and fzra here. I got a flight out at 7am, good chance its canceled? Also do they have to de-ice a plane if it sits more than an hour between landing and taking off for the next flight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I got a flight out at 7am, good chance its canceled? Also do they have to de-ice a plane if it sits more than an hour between landing and taking off for the next flight? I would say unsure on both but check ahead when you wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, Frog Town said: In Toledo and the temp is pushing 37. Not sure if there is warmer push than modeled, but it's gonna need to cool off significantly. The newest HRRR says 0 to 0.15" freezing rain for Toledo and up into the 0.30" range north of town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 here's a comparison of the precipitation type on Radarscope and GRLevel3. one Mping report says icy sidewalks at Fort Wayne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 If my temp is 34 in Toledo and dewpoint is at 32, we've essentially hit our wet bulb max, correct. Not much more room for evaporational cooling is there? HRRR seems to be verifying too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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