Heisy Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Kinda wild considering one of those cities has a warning up for 5-6” and the other has an advisory for 1-3”Yep, and I think they’re wrong. I think just like the last event your NWS will be playing catch-up. Ours will bust high except maybe S NJ or C DE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Sterling NWS in their discussion to be fair said low confidence but warning level snow possible. Being a govt employee I can tell you there is probably a metric that if they put up a Winter Storm Watch they have to have a certain confidence level and they are graded on the success rate of their watches. Being next to headquarters where all the bigwigs are makes it even harder for them. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: honestly the way this system has been continously uptrending and the radar looks juiced up compared to models, i would opt for a warning. i think snow sticking all over the roads and causing a mess is pretty likely tomorrow, and the way i see it it's much smarter to go for a warning and be safer than sorrier and risk a pile up If they’re gonna upgrade, they should do it before bedtime for most folks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 42 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RAP still dropping bombs. It is still snowing here: The RAP is consistent with a band of heavy snow from the northern neck and adjacent WV panhandle up through Frederick into northern Carroll. Like, super consistent and the ECMWF had it for many runs in a row at one point as well. Might have something here! Makes sense when you look at the 7H VV panels. It is textbook for that corridor. Let’s get it!! 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: If they’re gonna upgrade, they should do it before bedtime for most folks I'm honestly still surprised by the last one. Very few areas ended with at least 5" and I would think that's no different for this unless there's another considerable last minute uptick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 14 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: woah Holy crap. It got a clue!!! Never thought I’d see that. Good stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Sterling NWS in their discussion to be fair said low confidence but warning level snow possible. Being a govt employee I can tell you there is probably a metric that if they put up a Winter Storm Watch they have to have a certain confidence level and they are graded on the success rate of their watches. Being next to headquarters where all the bigwigs are makes it even harder for them. Also, LWX mentioned possible CSI. I've seen that before and that kind of snow can pile up in a real hurry 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Just now, MillvilleWx said: The RAP is consistent with a band of heavy snow from the northern neck and adjacent WV panhandle up through Frederick into northern Carroll. Like, super consistent and the ECMWF had it for many runs in a row at one point as well. Might have something here! Makes sense when you look at the 7H VV panels. It is textbook for that corridor. Let’s get it!! Oh yeah. Preach brother! We are starting to get hi rez agreement that a PUMMELLING is incoming. We are a god damn #snowtown in Nino's. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Fredricksburg to Harrisburg, winchester to bmore Don't stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Difficult call for LWX to make. Upgrade to warning or keep it as advisory level, considering tomorrow’s commute? 30/20 $20 says they hold with advisory. Only spot I could see a warning is the Mason-Dixon counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Fredricksburg to Harrisburg, winchester to bmore MA special. Truly a miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It’s going to be snow globing if these depictions are right. Amazing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Difficult call for LWX to make. Upgrade to warning or keep it as advisory level, considering tomorrow’s commute? 30/20Just do a warning. How many times do we get a chance like this 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 NAM has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Need the HRRR solution to verify even though it was terrible Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Poor Bernie Rayno got bullied into moving his 4-6” jackpot zone further north. Should’ve stuck to his guns 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Also, LWX mentioned possible CSI. I've seen that before and that kind of snow can pile up in a real hurry https://www.weather.gov/epz/research_papers_vptb_csi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 How bout them apples12:1 maps please 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: How bout them apples Did Chill get that blue dot? I mean he has earned it if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Atmospheric train tracks are real. Even when we started losing north it jumped right back. Defied a common outcome. Why this time? Luck? Chaos? Or was it already lined up on the heels of the last one? Had a heater feel to it. That's why I was bullish early. What an awesome week to be in MD. Heading to VA Monday for the heat wave. Lol. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Also, LWX mentioned possible CSI. I've seen that before and that kind of snow can pile up in a real hurry This. Before (Few days back) it was looking like that was favored for areas well to our north so I was content with the scraps. Now the trend is very much for this to happen overhead and the soundings/spatial outputs for 7H VV’s and correlated QG-convergence panels indicates that’s the expectation. We will see rates in some bands surpass what just occurred from the past event. It’s a vigorous jet streak we are working with. If you know anything about synoptic scale meteorology and translating to the mesoscale, this is prime for some surprises, so long as we aren’t being lead astray by guidance. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 A smidge colder at 9z vs 18z. precip encroaching at 5am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Also, LWX mentioned possible CSI. I've seen that before and that kind of snow can pile up in a real hurry Pretty sure we had that with the Jan 19 storm. It was a weird overperformer iirc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: https://www.weather.gov/epz/research_papers_vptb_csi Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Keeps sinking south. Tick by tick. 1 more tick at 0z and……..Folks! IMB of course lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 Just now, Bob Chill said: Pretty sure we had that with the Jan 19 storm. It was a weird overperformer iirc. What's CSI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 0z Hrr has a good strip of 4"+ through central MD on snow depth! I wonder if they are narrowing in on that it was the same area that got hit hardest by the last storm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 My official forecast!! I feel pretty confident in it !! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 So far, the most noticeable change is the sfc is colder leading in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2024 Share Posted January 19, 2024 What's CSI?Some show on cbs 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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