stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, understudyhero said: Yes. 1-3" south, 2-4" north... boom 4 south 6 north. They are terrible 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: March 2015 had 2 events in one week pop up out of nowhere lol. Small but still. It was a wild month front to back You might be referring to 2014. We had 3 snowfalls spread out through the month. We did get one in early March '15, too. I took a rack of pics/vids from both of those winters...I've got a legit media diary of events from 2013 to 2019 lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, stormtracker said: They are terrible I feel they got lucky in 2010... but over the last few years I would rather just come here and lurk. (I feel bad , we have a family connection to one of them too... but seriously, had to give it up mainly because of the comments) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Have they issued the rain and pass out advisory yet? You missed this earlier, apparently ... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-503- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0000Z/ Georgetown, including M street 826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 …COLD RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY... …COLD RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT… Cold rain expected for the duration of the event. Total rain accumulations of two-tenths of an inch. * WHERE… Georgetown. * WHEN...until 11 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very wet in the affected area. Frustration levels might also peak when observing frozen precipitation in adjacent areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while viewing forecasted winter weather and storm observations. Slow down, walk outside and look up to verify the precipitation is in fact rain and not frozen. && $$ 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: This. Before (Few days back) it was looking like that was favored for areas well to our north so I was content with the scraps. Now the trend is very much for this to happen overhead and the soundings/spatial outputs for 7H VV’s and correlated QG-convergence panels indicates that’s the expectation. We will see rates in some bands surpass what just occurred from the past event. It’s a vigorous jet streak we are working with. If you know anything about synoptic scale meteorology and translating to the mesoscale, this is prime for some surprises, so long as we aren’t being lead astray by guidance. i was just reading this to my husband. now to look to see if i can see the figures, because i want to know what I should be looking for. https://www.weather.gov/epz/research_papers_vptb_csi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: They are terrible Not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Bavarian Inn That is my wife and mine's anniversary place. Dont book lower level riverfront rooms. We have had and ruined all of them. Like real bad. 1 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: You might be referring to 2014. We had 3 snowfalls spread out through the month. We did get one in early March '15, too. I took a rack of pics/vids from both of those winters...I've got a legit media diary of events from 2013 to 2019 lol. I think both you and @Bob Chill are correct. In March 2014 we had 3 notable events...one early in the month (5.3" where I am), one on St. Patrick's Day (8"), and one on March 25 (3"). We even got a quick inch of snow on (I believe) the 30th after cold rain most of that day. That was a crazy, snowy March in a remarkable wall-to-wall winter. In 2015, I recall some light snow and decent icing around March 1-2, and more ice around the 3rd. Then we got a nice 6.5" snow on March 5. February that year featured extremely cold temperatures and a couple of solid events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 FV3 comes around to the rest of guidance. 2-4 3-5 event os coming. Look at radar: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I think both you and @Bob Chill are correct. In March 2014 we had 3 notable events...one early in the month (5.3" where I am), one on St. Patrick's Day (8"), and one on March 25 (3"). We even got a quick inch of snow on (I believe) the 30th after cold rain most of that day. That was a crazy, snowy March in a remarkable wall-to-wall winter. In 2015, I recall some light snow and decent icing around March 1-2, and more ice around the 3rd. Then we got a nice 6.5" snow on March 5. February that year featured extremely cold temperatures and a couple of solid events. Yep, that matches my records lol. I was living in downtown Bethesda at the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, 87storms said: Yep, that matches my records lol. I was living in downtown Bethesda at the time. Yup, that's where I'm at now (and was at the time)! What was so striking about that first week of March 2015 is the fact that we actually got ice in the middle of the day, in March, and then that neat snow event a few days later. Likewise, 2014 was just incredible with the amount of snow we got in March! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 15 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Absolutely! I used to live in Shepherdstown and worked at the Bavarian Inn for years when I was younger. I was there for the 2009 winter which was incredible. My sister went to college there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockabilyJunior Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Late Jan - March 2015 was for me the most wintry stretch of weather I have experienced in this area. There have been stretches with more total snowfall, and more frequent snowfall, but in that stretch we had fairly frequent snow, 1 or 2 fairly large snowfalls, and it was extremely cold. There was more or less snow covering the ground for 1-2 months. I'm thrilled to see that this storm looks like it might over-perform, but I am skeptical with these norlun type events. The last two that were forecast for this region, I think one was in 2018-2019, gave me a little dusting and in-laws in the NJ suburbs of Philadelphia got 6 inches. I think this may have even happened twice that year. But I wouldn't be surprised if either Baltimore DC or both bust big on this one ... I hope I am wrong though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 FV3 comes around to the rest of guidance. 2-4 3-5 event os coming. Look at radar: One frame later. Precip blossoming and looks juicy in E KY 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Soooo … when are we starting the radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Perhaps some of that reaching the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Latest from LWX: PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4 INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION, SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL, THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Why not do a twitter space?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 17 minutes ago, 87storms said: You might be referring to 2014. We had 3 snowfalls spread out through the month. We did get one in early March '15, too. I took a rack of pics/vids from both of those winters...I've got a legit media diary of events from 2013 to 2019 lol. yeah..I think Bob is remembering this period in 2014. I'm gonna add it to my list 2/25: 2.25", 2/26: 1.25", 3/3: 4.0", 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My sister went to college there I met my wife of 11 years there. In fact we got married at the James Rumsey Monument (a small park on a bluff overlooking the Potomac). A lot of my family also went to Shepherd and my step father was a professor there for years (now retired). It really is an amazing small town. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 First flakes (flurries). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Latest from LWX: PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4 INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION, SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL, THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. Seems they’re laying down advance reasoning why they don’t intend to upgrade to a warning. At least it’s not a step back from a general 2-4” dc north and 1-3” south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Perhaps some of that reaching the ground Greens in my corner of Burke are not resulting in any precip on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, nj2va said: First flakes (flurries). Where? Alexandria or Mchenry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Latest from LWX: PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4 INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION, SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL, THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. Boo on the part about mid-level saturation around FXBG, but it all seems reasonable. Maybe we’ll get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: yeah..I think Bob is remembering this period in 2014. I'm gonna add it to my list 2/25: 2.25", 2/26: 1.25", 3/3: 4.0", It was 2014. Those years get blended in my mind. So similar. Check the yellow bands breaking out in KY/OH... I can extrapolate those to our yards.... heh 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Where? Alexandria or Mchenry? McHenry. 24/7. Don’t expect to see any ‘legit’ snow for an hour or two while the column moistens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Greens in my corner of Burke are not resulting in any precip on the ground. Nothing in Lake Ridge either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 RGEM is juiced up compared to 18Z 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: lol..still a little light band from NW DC NW to hagerstown at midnight And just misses Gtown… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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