Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

[Solution Man]

Perhaps some of that reaching the ground

[StormyClearweather]

Latest from LWX: 

PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE  
IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE   
GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C  
PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW   
ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST.  
  
STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO  
GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO  
MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.  
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4  
INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO   
ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND  
HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE  
FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION,   
SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL,  
THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN   
UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN   
AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO   
LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES.   
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE   
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR   
WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.   
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. 

[DCAlexandria]

Why not do a twitter space?


.

[WVsnowlover]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My sister went to college there 

I met my wife of 11 years there. In fact we got married at the James Rumsey Monument (a small park on a bluff overlooking the Potomac). A lot of my family also went to Shepherd and my step father was a professor there for years (now retired). It really is an amazing small town.

[nj2va]

First flakes (flurries).

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Latest from LWX: 

PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE  
IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE   
GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C  
PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW   
ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST.  
  
STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO  
GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO  
MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.  
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4  
INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO   
ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND  
HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE  
FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION,   
SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL,  
THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN   
UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN   
AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO   
LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES.   
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE   
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR   
WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.   
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. 

Seems they’re laying down advance reasoning why they don’t intend to upgrade to a warning. 

At least it’s not a step back from a general 2-4” dc north and 1-3” south

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Perhaps some of that reaching the ground

Greens in my corner of Burke are not resulting in any precip on the ground.

[Terpeast]

Just now, nj2va said:

First flakes (flurries).

Where? Alexandria or Mchenry?

[wawarriors4]

6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Latest from LWX: 

PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE  
IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST  
MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE   
GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C  
PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW   
ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST.  
  
STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS  
THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO  
GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO  
MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.  
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4  
INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO   
ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND  
HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE  
FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION,   
SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL,  
THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN   
UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN   
AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO   
LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES.   
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE   
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR   
WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.   
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME. 

Boo on the part about mid-level saturation around FXBG, but it all seems reasonable. Maybe we’ll get lucky.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

yeah..I think Bob is remembering this period in 2014.  I'm gonna add it to my list

2/25: 2.25", 2/26: 1.25", 3/3: 4.0",

It was 2014. Those years get blended in my mind. So similar. 

Check the yellow bands breaking out in KY/OH... I can extrapolate those to our yards.... heh

 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Where? Alexandria or Mchenry?

McHenry.  24/7.  Don’t expect to see any ‘legit’ snow for an hour or two while the column moistens.

[deer]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Greens in my corner of Burke are not resulting in any precip on the ground.

Nothing in Lake Ridge either

[rjvanals]

RGEM is juiced up compared to 18Z

[Twilly05]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

lol..still a little light band from NW DC NW to hagerstown at midnight

And just misses Gtown…

[VA Mad Man]

46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Of course. Find some uncut Peruvian cocaine. Ur good for like 2 days easy and you don't have to waste any time eating or dumb stuff like that 

The Oracle speaks! Love the Chill!

[StormyClearweather]

Models don't appear to be picking up the "precip" streaming overhead, while it looks like HRRR takes a couple of hours after precip starts for it to start hitting the ground. Maybe, just maybe, the stuff falling now helps moisten the column, reducing virga when the real stuff gets here? 

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Seems they’re laying down advance reasoning why they don’t intend to upgrade to a warning. 

At least it’s not a step back from a general 2-4” dc north and 1-3” south

I like their call though. Gotta save warnings for bombs. "Warning" needs to mean exactly that. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

McHenry.  24/7.  Don’t expect to see any ‘legit’ snow for an hour or two while the column moistens.

Nice, should be a great event out there for you. I considered a trip up that way again this year but that was before Monday’s event. 

29/21 down here in ashburn, nothing reaching the ground yet. Sfc temp has been slow to fall, so the column is gonna need some work. Hopefully that lead wave does that prep work before the main show

[jayyy]

It was 2014. Those years get blended in my mind. So similar. 
Check the yellow bands breaking out in KY/OH... I can extrapolate those to our yards.... heh
 

The Huntington Humbug!

[pazzo83]

lol DCPS is the only district in the entire metro that hasn't called it - fuckin Mayor Bowser

[Lucketts]

36 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That is my wife and mine's anniversary place. Dont book lower level riverfront rooms. We have had and ruined all of them. Like real bad. 

This one wins the internet for today. LMAO!

[clskinsfan]

0Z HRRR pummels the Valley. Time to roll.

[snowmagnet]

6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

lol DCPS is the only district in the entire metro that hasn't called it - fuckin Mayor Bowser

Have you not been here long?  It takes way more than a couple of inches to close DC schools.  They are always the last to fall, if they do. 

[jayyy]

RGEM is juiced up compared to 18Z

Is it really real if you don’t post the resulting clown maps?

[pazzo83]

Just now, snowmagnet said:

Have you not been here long?  It takes way more than a couple of inches to close DC schools.  They are always the last to fall, if they do. 

first time we have a kid in DCPS (PK-4) - so now we pay attention lol

[jayyy]

Have you not been here long?  It takes way more than a couple of inches to close DC schools.  They are always the last to fall, if they do. 

“way more”? So like… 2” more? DCPS literally closed the other day.

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, jayyy said:

Is it really real if you don’t post the resulting clown maps?

It's aight. 

[nukeing]

27/19 so close I can feel it

[pazzo83]

Just now, jayyy said:

“way more”? So like… 2” more? DCPS literally closed the other day.

a lot of the side streets were bad - and of course they don't seem treated again tonight.

[jayyy]

It's aight. 

Not bad. In line with the general 2-4 forecast.