Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WWAs and WSWs flying. Sitting at 31f in Ivyland. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Expecting 2-4" in my Allentown suburb. Leaning closer to 2" than 4". Should still make for a pretty scene tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I’m in the direct bullseye. 5 to 6 expectation set. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I’m in the direct bullseye. 5 to 6 expectation set.You should really join the NWS if you know where an IVT sets up 18 hours before a storm. You could save a lot of lives . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: WWAs and WSWs flying. Sitting at 31f in Ivyland. Now you have done it. Started a thread. The kiss of death. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I actually made it above freezing today, with a high of 33 (when the sun briefly attempted to show through the clouds), a low of 19, and a dp as low as 5 earlier this morning. I meant to tell RedSky that I "saw him" in the east around sunrise before it clouded over, so I knew something was on its way. It's currently overcast and 30 with dp 19. The 19z NBM seems to have the max accumulation right along the I-95 corridor. I suppose a concern might be if a dry slot appears, which I recall happening with past Norlun setups (with one area under a death band and others with zippo). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 48 minutes ago, hazwoper said: More like the regular cheeseburger 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z icon.Looking like 1-2” area wide but what do I know . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 28 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I actually made it above freezing today, with a high of 33 (when the sun briefly attempted to show through the clouds), a low of 19, and a dp as low as 5 earlier this morning. I meant to tell RedSky that I "saw him" in the east around sunrise before it clouded over, so I knew something was on its way. It's currently overcast and 30 with dp 19. The 19z NBM seems to have the max accumulation right along the I-95 corridor. I suppose a concern might be if a dry slot appears, which I recall happening with past Norlun setups (with one area under a death band and others with zippo). Yep. Area of subsidence is to be expected each side of the death band. That's why I loathe these setups. Clearly someone will be angry at the NWS when they get an inch or so and they 'were told 4-6"'. Wish there were a better way to make the general public wary of these IVT setups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 18z icon. Looking like 1-2” area wide but what do I know I know you shouldn't be using a global model in situations like this where hi res is preferred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 18z icon. Looking like 1-2” area wide but what do I know . The icon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 If we only get an inch in the warning zone, at least it will be a disappointment worthy of the term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The models have given us an idea of what to expect in the areas that get the IVT, 3-5" w 6" lollies. As to where it sets up the models have suggested anywhere from central Jersey/east central PA to Southern jersey/DE/N Maryland. Areas not fortunate enough to get IVT love, 1-3" seems to be uniform. I don't know how much more we can learn from models at this point. I feel like the radar will be our best(or worst) friend from here on out. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 These guys knew the snow was coming!! They also told me the Norlun Trough will set up from East Natmeal Twp Chester County to Coatesville east to Delaware County to Swedesboro NJ then towards Southern Ocean County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
destratisphere Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Swedesboro salutes you, let's get that band!Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 When do the SREF plumes update? I swear each run used to come out around 5:00 am & pm and 11:00 am & pm, but now they seem to get updated much later than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 37f with a dew point of 25 here in cape May. Hoping this coastal component over-performs as cold air rushes in tomorrow afternoon. Could get fun. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said: 37f with a dew point of 25 here in cape May. Hoping this coastals component over-performs as cold air rushes in tomorrow afternoon. Could get fun. . Hope you get to enjoy it down there. I'm 69 miles up the parkway from you. Been some decent coastals, but I'm missing the bombs with snow that we were getting used to. Enjoy, sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 This is the my Final Call snow map that I made around noon today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said: 37f with a dew point of 25 here in cape May. Hoping this coastal component over-performs as cold air rushes in tomorrow afternoon. Could get fun. . wow stark difference from Media to Cape May 28f here bit of a gradient setting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I actually made it above freezing today, with a high of 33 (when the sun briefly attempted to show through the clouds), a low of 19, and a dp as low as 5 earlier this morning. I meant to tell RedSky that I "saw him" in the east around sunrise before it clouded over, so I knew something was on its way. It's currently overcast and 30 with dp 19. The 19z NBM seems to have the max accumulation right along the I-95 corridor. I suppose a concern might be if a dry slot appears, which I recall happening with past Norlun setups (with one area under a death band and others with zippo). I remember a Norlun trough in February of 2009 which setup over Philadelphia and Gloucester/Camden Counties. This sucker dropped up to 10 inches in the City of Philadelphia and up to a foot in Gloucester county. South of West Chester, where I live, only saw 4 inches. I think parts of Lancaster County (Manheim Twp.) got 12 inches in another very narrow band (10 miles wide). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Attached is a great read of the Feb 3-4, 2009 event, which might be very similar to this one. https://www.weather.gov/phi/02032009wss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Actually some flakes falling from this....just looked outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, JSharp said: I remember a Norlun trough in February of 2009 which setup over Philadelphia and Gloucester/Camden Counties. This sucker dropped up to 10 inches in the City of Philadelphia and up to a foot in Gloucester county. South of West Chester, where I live, only saw 4 inches. I think parts of Lancaster County (Manheim Twp.) got 12 inches in another very narrow band (10 miles wide). Yep got 7" here in Media Delaware County. Longwood Gardens in Kennett Square 16 miles away got barely 1" and 15 miles north also got 1" the band started in Lancaster and exited the coast just north of ACY. If I recall the only models that had this was the NAM, RAP, ETA models back then all of them were about to be put on moth balls so no one believed them and went with the global models which showed light snow and flurries quickly ending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, JSharp said: I remember a Norlun trough in February of 2009 which setup over Philadelphia and Gloucester/Camden Counties. This sucker dropped up to 10 inches in the City of Philadelphia and up to a foot in Gloucester county. South of West Chester, where I live, only saw 4 inches. I think parts of Lancaster County (Manheim Twp.) got 12 inches in another very narrow band (10 miles wide). Is that the one during the Eagles game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, JSharp said: I remember a Norlun trough in February of 2009 which setup over Philadelphia and Gloucester/Camden Counties. This sucker dropped up to 10 inches in the City of Philadelphia and up to a foot in Gloucester county. South of West Chester, where I live, only saw 4 inches. I think parts of Lancaster County (Manheim Twp.) got 12 inches in another very narrow band (10 miles wide). There was something more recent although the band set up just to the north of Philly and Philly (at least IMBY) ended up in a dry slot for an extended period of time hoping for some kind of pivot and/or back-building (that did eventually come). Forgot what year but I am sure the thread is still here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Beagles20 said: Is that the one during the Eagles game? Nope. This one was in February, when the Eagles usually don't play. The storm you are thinking about was the December 2013 event, which dropped 8 inches in South Philly. That was during the Eagles game. That came from an overrunning setup, vastly different from a Norlun trough setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, JSharp said: Nope. This one was in February, when the Eagles usually don't play. The storm you are thinking about was the December 2013 event, which dropped 8 inches in South Philly. That was during the Eagles game. That came from an overrunning setup, vastly different from a Norlun trough setup. Oh ok. I remember watching the game kinda ticked off because philly was getting all that snow and we got like 2" or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Currently bopping between 29 & 30 with dp 20. I did finally clear my board this afternoon, so we wait. If the winds appear as progged, it might be tricky to get a good measurement assuming snow ratios will allow it to blow around more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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