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Jan 19th Snow on Snow: the this always works until it doesn't thread


psuhoffman
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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Woah pal, was 0z or perhaps 6z not indicative of the data ingestion? Euro is the line leader at the moment..

I think the 0Z and 6z runs had heard a rumor of our new thread but I think the 12 Z is going to be the first run that actually has ingested the new data

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Euro 3” for Baltimore would be great all things considered. Would refresh the snowpack to where it was just after the storm over the weekend and probably stick very easily given the chilled surfaces - probably even more of a transit issue than the MLK storm despite the lower totals. Also factor in timing. Lock it in!

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4 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said:

The official BCPS policy is 4 snow days then asynchronous, not sure they will be able to get around that. They've used 1 day so far.

BCPS is actually 3 snow days before virtual learning kicks in. The virtual learning days would be on a 2hr delay schedule. 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

MDZ004>006-008-011-507-508-182130-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0600Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northern
  Maryland.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

 

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HRRR was awful for the Tuesday storm and is generally bad this far out, but I actually think its latest run is kinda what I expect to happen and generally in line with the GFS and Euro. Philly/NJ is the place to be with this one. NJ could end up with a nice storm.

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51 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Euro would get DCA to its historical average snow for January. Also been 72+ hours straight now at or below freezing. Considering last January low temps hit 35 at 11pm and never budged all night and the obvious lack of snow it's been a pretty nice week. Even better if the 1-2 tomorrow verifies. 

No doubt it’s the kind of wintry period that’s been in short supply lately.  We will probably get above freezing a bit today but our snowpack is holding tight.  A nice refresh tomorrow!

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