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Jan 19th Snow on Snow: the this always works until it doesn't thread


psuhoffman
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Slow down, you move too fast. 

I guess the NAm map could be accurate as a nowcast but bear in mind, where it shows near-zero snow n.w. of Idaho panhandle we have 18" on ground and it's still snowing now. So I wonder about its accuracy downstream into places where snow is just starting. I would expect parts of ID and WY to get almost same as here.

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Precip shield similar to NAM

I think the Icon and Euro smoothing things out while the mesoscale models NAM is picking up on individual dynamic possibilities like ascent over a norlun trough Mason Dixon Line points ENE. Looks like 1-3" Dc to Baltimore then 5+ where the convergence is taking place somewhere between Mason Dixon Line to Trenton NJ to the Jersey Coast. 

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1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think the Icon and Euro smoothing things out while the mesoscale models NAM is picking up on individual dynamic possibilities like ascent over a norlun trough Mason Dixon Line points ENE. Looks like 1-3" Dc to Baltimore then 5+ where the convergence is taking place somewhere between Mason Dixon Line to Trenton NJ to the Jersey Coast. 

Sound very reasonable 

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2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I think the Icon and Euro smoothing things out while the mesoscale models NAM is picking up on individual dynamic possibilities like ascent over a norlun trough Mason Dixon Line points ENE. Looks like 1-3" Dc to Baltimore then 5+ where the convergence is taking place somewhere between Mason Dixon Line to Trenton NJ to the Jersey Coast. 

Sounds like a solid post for the Philly subforum. 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

There's not a lot of time left.  If we're going to see a shift south I'd love to see the GFS/Euro show it tonight

my analog for this storm is Jan 25

not sure of the year yet

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

There's not a lot of time left.  If we're going to see a shift south I'd love to see the GFS/Euro show it tonight

Maybe it’s the good vibes from Monday’s event, but I still think 1-2” for DC….probably closer to 1” but will freshen up the snowpack so don’t hate that.

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