jgentworth Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Found out that the HRRR is triggering for folks here. Pretty awesome jump from 06z to 12z to 18z nonetheless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526-190330- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- 227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 with localized amounts upwards of 4 inches in the northern and western suburbs of Washington D.C. * WHERE...Portions of central Maryland, The District of Columbia and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 MDZ004>006-008-011-507-508-190330- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0600Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 227 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 with localized amounts around 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast and northern Maryland. * WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commute. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Can't believe we're getting both snowstorms this week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Wow, the "upwards of 4 inches" language is new today 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 So nice, Yoda posted it twice.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, wxmeddler said: So nice, Yoda posted it twice.. Second one is different... the one for N MD 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Hot off the press: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, nj2va said: Hot off the press: Loudoun Special Boys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NAM juicier at hr 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, nj2va said: Hot off the press: We know where this is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like perhaps more interaction between the vorts early on the NAM run...maybe the trough a tad sharper too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Hot off the press: Just need that 3-4 to come down just 10 miles and I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Hot off the press: Love when they play catch up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: You listed 5 models. So is the blend 4 or 5 models? I did not include the ICON in the blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 MAM more ampd trough 12, should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Hot off the press: 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Long and well written afternoon AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 243 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A pair of low pressure systems over the Ohio River Valley and off the Southeast Coast will affect the Mid-Atlantic through Friday. Arctic high pressure will build in the wake of these lows this weekend as they merge offshore. High pressure will then settle south of the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure has departed off the East Coast into the western Atlantic Ocean as of mid afternoon. Low pressure was moving from the mid Mississippi River Valley up the Ohio River Valley, with a second area of low pressure off the coast of GA/SC moving northeastward. Aloft, a ridge axis was moving eastward across the western CONUS approaching Idaho, an upper-level low was moving offshore of Newfoundland, and a trough with a few embedded vort maxes was in between moving southeastward into the Midwest. This pattern is typically favorable for accumulating snowfall over the Mid-Atlantic given sufficiently cold temperatures (which are firmly in place). The flow is progressive, and this lends to a quick-moving system, with phasing/stronger deepening of low pressure not occurring until the system is well offshore. Still, PVA from multiple shortwaves, LFQ of a strong (150+ kt) upper jet, and modest WAA will result in a period of snow across the region. Given the strong dynamics aloft, an inverted trough axis will likely develop well to the NW of the offshore low. With the cold airmass and a deepening DGZ to around 150 mb, snowfall in some areas may very well overperform beneath wherever this trough axis sets up (could be as far north as central NJ, or as far south as northern/central MD). Confidence remains low in the exact placement of the heaviest QPF/snow, as these mesoscale features typically have lower predictability. In terms of sensible weather... Flurries may develop as early as nightfall along and west of the Allegheny Front, and by mid to late evening elsewhere as the column gradually saturates with the lead wave pushing across. Accumulating snow most likely holds off until just after midnight over the Alleghenies, and the pre-dawn hours further east toward the metro areas/I-95 corridor. This initial snow will be largely jet induced as the LFQ dynamics move atop moistening low levels. The strongest lift overlays the DGZ for a brief (1-3 hr) window east of the mountains from just before dawn through the first half of the morning commute. Given cold temperatures and moderate snowfall rates which may briefly exceed 0.5 in/hr, this will likely lead to a very slippery Friday morning commute. From late morning into the early afternoon, the mid-level trough axis sharpens and takes on a negative tilt overhead. This is a period of greater uncertainty, as the exact placement of this trough axis will dictate the placement of enhanced precipitation/snow. This is also the period where the DGZ is at its deepest (per BUFKIT), and the most likely time period for overperforming snowfall. Bands of snow spawned by these types of features can be narrow but produce much higher snowfall on a localized basis, so it bears close monitoring. As confidence in the placement of this banding increases, areas of northern/northeast MD may need to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. But confidence in the placement of higher totals was a bit too low to upgrade with the Thursday afternoon forecast package. Lingering low-level moisture, increasing MUCAPE in the BL (stretching up into a lowering DGZ), and lift via continued PVA ahead of a trailing wave, could cause at least scattered snow shower activity to linger through late Friday afternoon or later. These may add another coating to an inch in isolated spots where snow showers are heavier or more persistent. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 20 over the higher ridges of the Alleghenies, to around freezing over southern MD. Temperatures will likely rise to or just above freezing along and southeast of a line from near Baltimore and along the immediate northern bay shore, across far northern VA, to the lower elevations of the central Shenandoah Valley on Friday. Further north and west, temperatures will hold between 25-30 degrees (20-25 mountains) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Are we getting NAM'd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Moderate snow through 15 throughout 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Still snow light to moderate through 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormtracker said: F.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, yoda said: F.... Nah. just interesting. It's probably gonna be a hold. But the vort pass is still south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormtracker said: Nah. just interesting. It's probably gonna be a hold. But the vort pass is still south I didn't remember what the new terminology was for certain amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Moderate snow through 15 throughout Sounds like it’ll still be better but WxBell has no snow at 15 minus western zones so I’m wondering if whatever you are looking at is virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Still snowing light to moderate through 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I like hour 21 on the soundings near DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like it’ll be a bit better than the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like a slightly wetter run. Nobody get pumped. Should be the same general out come. Vort is a bit souther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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