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Jan 19th Snow on Snow: the this always works until it doesn't thread


psuhoffman
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46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My climo is somewhere around 22". If tomorrow produces, my yard would be somewhere around 9". Sure wouldn't take much to hit mid 20s. Some good fortune and 30+ isn't crazy. No idea what Feb/Mar bring but being snowless seems the least likely outcome imho

 

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If we get 2-3", we'll be at around 7-8" including the December event, which is par for the course by this time of year. We'll need Feb & Mar to deliver the goods for us to beat climo. I still think there's good chance of that happening. But for now, let's focus on tomorrow and enjoy it.

This is my thought as well. 8-9” season to date by Jan 20 is solid if not spectacular. Very sporting chance for climo+, although the really gaudy 150%+ of climo will take an incredible run. 

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One things for sure in this setup; it will start out cold and end cold. 20s for many for much of, if not the whole event. Wet bulb between 23-27 from north to south. 7H VV signals show decent ascent aligned with the LER of a prominent jet streak. There will be a 4-6 hr period of good snow rates that should accumulate efficiently. This is a textbook WWA event for everyone. WSW possible across areas north of I-70, but not impossible. Likely less than 20%, but that’s better than 0%. 
 

Heaviest snow should be within Frederick/Carroll/northern Baltimore Co/northern Harford, but don’t count out VA northern neck and WV Panhandle either. M/D line is favored right now, but as Bob mentioned earlier, someone will sneak a mini-jack outside the northern tier if the banding materializes. 

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Just now, jgentworth said:

18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. 
 

The HRRR couldn’t even get the storm right while it was happening earlier this week. I would ignore it until it gets a clue. Other hi-res and ECMWF are your best bets at the moment. 

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3 minutes ago, jgentworth said:

18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. 
 

It was totally lost for the last storm, but the placement of the precip on it looks favorable for us, wouldn't sweat the QPF output.

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The HRRR couldn’t even get the storm right while it was happening earlier this week. I would ignore it until it gets a clue. Other hi-res and ECMWF are your best bets at the moment. 

Agreed - it kept showing a giant dry slot from Front Royal up through Loudoun to Gettysburg which had me concerned but Radar and my eyeballs said otherwise. 

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8 minutes ago, jgentworth said:

18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. 
 

If we are so insistent on discussing the HRRR its probably best to look at its run on run trends, which are very positive from 12z to 18z. 

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