aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Typical Nam, goes from least snowiest model to snowiest model in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: 3km paints a nice stripe through central and northern MD (kuchera) 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Welcome back lol Nah. It’s gonna be heartbreak hotel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: When is the last time a vort shifted souther for us? I’m not trying to a wet blanket i swear, but NAM is smoking herb laced with something. It’s just such a radical change. It's delivering huge bumps of copium to all on this board right now, and not one of us is going to turn it down. The question is whether the GFS brings news that the NAM's goods were laced with fentanyl or if it was pure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Now I have a real shot at 3 inches! Now lets see what the rest of the 12z models have to say… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, osfan24 said: Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out. Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormtracker said: Nah. It’s gonna be heartbreak hotel. You got the 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, osfan24 said: Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out. “H5 pass greatly improved surface could be even better, lagged a bit, FOLKS” let’s do this, dawn of the final day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 We back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, mattie g said: It's delivering huge bumps of copium to all on this board right now, and not one of us is going to turn it down. The question is whether the GFS brings news that the NAM's goods were laced with fentanyl or if it was pure. If the GFS gets on board then I’ll be interested. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Most guidance is in line now for 2-4" for most of us. Still potential for a little more upside but I think we'd all be happy with that. This has been incrementally improving since last night. Let's hope that continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out. it is - that map jumped the gun 15 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: You got the 12Z? Nah you can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I can't believe creating a new thread really worked 6 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: it is - that map jumped the gun That's more in line with what I expected, thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it is - that map jumped the gun Leesburg on west jackpot. I’m buying lottery tickets today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it is - that map jumped the gun Lollies to 6" nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I can't believe creating a new thread really worked If this one continues to get better, that would be twice this week it appears to have worked, haha Sounds like Mappy is a convert P.S. What happened to your green tag? You and Randy have a fight or something? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 When you look at the whole setup, the potential is there. Got a vort swinging through with a low developing off the coast of the Carolinas. This isn't a nor'easter, but if one or both vorts are stronger and further south than modeled, then there's a path to victory (via several inches). Looks like a daytime event (mostly) and should be powdery. Both of those are part of my grading criteria. Funny seeing people talk about winter grades yesterday because I was randomly thinking about that during my drive yesterday. Winter gets a C+ so far. This event could get it solidly into the B category. Also, I mentioned this before, but the idea of getting those rainers to get out of the drought followed by snowfall always seemed like an ideal situation. Creeks and streams are flowing better than I've seen in the past year. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I don't think that this is a storm for which the super generous Kuchera ratios will work well. It's not super cold, and lift does not appear to be maximized in the DGZ. With cold ground and temps a few degrees below freezing, this might be one of those cases in which the 10:1 maps actually work pretty well. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it is - that map jumped the gun I made it to the very end of the gray scale...like there is no level of gray darker than that one...if they needed a darker shade it would be black..or first shade of blue would work...but lets focus on how gray my depth is for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. Forecast Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys) Zone E: 5-10” Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7” 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I just need one more shade of darker blue. 3" is fine as wine for me. I think this starting a second thread really works. It's got MOJO or JUJU or somethin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro and NAM both painting 4-5” around these parts. Come on GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. Forecast Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys) Zone E: 5-10” Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7” Works for me lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Work for a bit, pick phone back up, 69 new posts on the storm thread… NICE 8 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, high risk said: I don't think that this is a storm for which the super generous Kuchera ratios will work well. It's not super cold, and lift does not appear to be maximized in the DGZ. With cold ground and temps a few degrees below freezing, this might be one of those cases in which the 10:1 maps actually work pretty well. I think the average will be right around that 10-12:1, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Parrs Ridge crew above 800’ and the Catoctins get closer to 14-15:1 overall. They seem to pull that in these types of setups. Not a crazy storm and one where the max is limited in potential, but snow on snow is always welcomed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, mappy said: I can't believe creating a new thread really worked Believe 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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