H2O Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Might as well get Ellinwood to paint you in the pale grey right now. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thats a pretty big shift from the Euro this close to an event. Game time. This gonna be the obs thread as well? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Pipe down in here with your souther wetter Euro shit. I’m trying to work and everyone is distracting me. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Scraff said: Pipe down in here with your souther wetter Euro shit. I’m trying to work and everyone is distracting me. "Work" 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Pipe down in here with your souther wetter Euro shit. I’m trying to work and everyone is distracting me. Will be right there with you in a couple of hours. I feel a "sick day" coming on tomorrow. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Pipe down in here with your souther wetter Euro shit. I’m trying to work and everyone is distracting me. You distro-ing GH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I remarked around 10:30 that it looked like 2-4 to me and I see that showing up now. The very first flake will stick And we Will Not be overcoming daytime radiance with light snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 HRRR maxed out 9 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 46 minutes ago, Solution Man said: On to the 18z Happy Hour, Watcha drinking Virga Tonic 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You distro-ing GH? Yes sir! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My climo is somewhere around 22". If tomorrow produces, my yard would be somewhere around 9". Sure wouldn't take much to hit mid 20s. Some good fortune and 30+ isn't crazy. No idea what Feb/Mar bring but being snowless seems the least likely outcome imho 21 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If we get 2-3", we'll be at around 7-8" including the December event, which is par for the course by this time of year. We'll need Feb & Mar to deliver the goods for us to beat climo. I still think there's good chance of that happening. But for now, let's focus on tomorrow and enjoy it. This is my thought as well. 8-9” season to date by Jan 20 is solid if not spectacular. Very sporting chance for climo+, although the really gaudy 150%+ of climo will take an incredible run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 We sure have dragged a lot of models out of the closet this year and wipe the dust off them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 20 minutes ago, H2O said: Hall of fame material right here. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Virga Tonic Looks like a heavier snow shower just north of the ski liberty area in southern Pa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: HRRR maxed out Good look and a nice improvement over those turd runs from last night. Cranking by 10z. Should be pretty when we wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Wxdavis5784 said: So does the snow start at 1am or 1pm in Bristol, TN? YES 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Wxdavis5784 said: So does the snow start at 1am or 1pm in Bristol, TN? Something a little easier to understand: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Something a little easier to understand: Frostburg, MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Frostburg, MD There’s a reason they call it Frostbite 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 One things for sure in this setup; it will start out cold and end cold. 20s for many for much of, if not the whole event. Wet bulb between 23-27 from north to south. 7H VV signals show decent ascent aligned with the LER of a prominent jet streak. There will be a 4-6 hr period of good snow rates that should accumulate efficiently. This is a textbook WWA event for everyone. WSW possible across areas north of I-70, but not impossible. Likely less than 20%, but that’s better than 0%. Heaviest snow should be within Frederick/Carroll/northern Baltimore Co/northern Harford, but don’t count out VA northern neck and WV Panhandle either. M/D line is favored right now, but as Bob mentioned earlier, someone will sneak a mini-jack outside the northern tier if the banding materializes. 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 First closure casualty tomorrow: APG. I think they’re going for a more proactive look after not even mentioning the MLK storm until… Tuesday. To delay Wednesday… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgentworth Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, jgentworth said: 18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. The HRRR couldn’t even get the storm right while it was happening earlier this week. I would ignore it until it gets a clue. Other hi-res and ECMWF are your best bets at the moment. 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, jgentworth said: 18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. It was totally lost for the last storm, but the placement of the precip on it looks favorable for us, wouldn't sweat the QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgentworth Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The HRRR couldn’t even get the storm right while it was happening earlier this week. I would ignore it until it gets a clue. Other hi-res and ECMWF are your best bets at the moment. Agreed - it kept showing a giant dry slot from Front Royal up through Loudoun to Gettysburg which had me concerned but Radar and my eyeballs said otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, jgentworth said: 18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I formally move that this forum ban posting or discussion of the HRRR. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The purple blob creeps closer...reaching...REACHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, jgentworth said: 18z HRRR seems to be drier than the 12z NAM by a bit. But we're talking 15-20hrs on the HRRR which I think is probably out of its range a bit. If we are so insistent on discussing the HRRR its probably best to look at its run on run trends, which are very positive from 12z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WWAs up for the rest of the LWX CWA that didn't have one earlier 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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