Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, LeesburgWx said: 12z is the new Happy Hour after these trends Yeah, it's 5 o'clock somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lookin good to me. Solid 1-3 locked in with a minor chance at a surprise. Instability driven snows after the low skips the coast could pick a random winner If these trends continue, 1-3" might start to look a little conservative for anyone DC north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said: Georgetown? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeau Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Now watch we have some clown ass wonky maps. Here's SV More importantly: What are the details behind that Best Bolognese recipe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 biggest 18z NAM run of our lives coming up in a couple hours 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Shad said: biggest 18z NAM run of our lives coming up in a couple hours 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, SnowBeau said: More importantly: What are the details behind that Best Bolognese recipe? I knew somebody would catch that. Thank God I wasn't home and had my usual tabs open. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: If these trends continue, 1-3" might start to look a little conservative for anyone DC north. You're prob in a better spot than me. Northern stream stuff has a way of underperforming around the beltways. Likely orographic effect and being in a shadow. Sometimes eastern zones do better than the cities because of this. Part of this event is WAA driven so that's good. Upper level part usually favors western zones. My expectations of events like this are hedging low on modeled qpf and there isn't much to begin with. I'd consider 2-3" a win and anything more a boom. We'll see 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think we may be entering reasonable worst case scenario time. 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Bob Chill said: You're prob in a better spot than me. Northern stream stuff has a way of underperforming around the beltways. Likely orographic effect and being in a shadow. Sometimes eastern zones do better than the cities because of this. Part of this event is WAA driven so that's good. Upper level part usually favors western zones. My expectations of events like this are hedging low on modeled qpf and there isn't much to begin with. I'd consider 2-3" a win and anything more a boom. We'll see 2-3" would absolutely be a win considering where we were just 18 hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: I think we may be entering reasonable worst case scenario time. We should start a petition to have them change that to "best case" 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I miss wrap around snows. Hoping the low stalls and blows up to a 967mb storm with wrap around snows. Nah. I'm greedy. It's a dream. Of years past. The emotional high. Addicted. Moving and groovin from 2-4". Nice! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: notice how el ninos always seem to put the bullseye in the DMV areas....especially the big historical storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I knew somebody would catch that. Thank God I wasn't home and had my usual tabs open. Wow! Looks like you found a model giving us 10 inches in one of your tabs! 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: We should start a petition to have them change that to "best case" I know. My first thought was that (that) was a lower bound. They need to change the title to something less judgmental. I also find it amusing how excited we get when the model spits out an additional 0.05" of precipitation for our snow-deprived backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, The Dude said: Wow! Looks like you found a model giving us 10 inches in one of your tabs! It's that bali folder 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My climo is somewhere around 22". If tomorrow produces, my yard would be somewhere around 9". Sure wouldn't take much to hit mid 20s. Some good fortune and 30+ isn't crazy. No idea what Feb/Mar bring but being snowless seems the least likely outcome imho The greed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I am excited for snow on snow. But I still will need 40" to reach my 50" super el nino forecasts from the weather influencers. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Western low I was discussing yesterday has become a remnant wave (1014 mbs) located in s/c NE and is still producing a swath of 3-5 in snowfalls in n NE, se SD; these will translate into IA-n mo, then IL-IN-KY quite rapidly, as wave is embedded in 120 kt mid-level jet stream. Feature is in transition to become a slider low that will be merging with weak energy tracking e.n.e. across TN towards sw VA. models have adjusted to reality of best moisture availability as I suspected could be the case given trajectory of western feeder moisture ID into WY last night. Think the 2-4 inch forecasts are solid now, and 4-6 is upper end of what this situation can accomplish, except where orographic uplift yields 6-8. No similarity whatsoever to Feb 1979 storm which exploded off the coast and was interacting with a 1050 mb frigid high near BTV and e ON, sQC. This present situation will create a powerful Atlantic low but that will be racing away Friday night towards central Atlantic Ocean and eventually Ireland by Sunday. The 1979 event on Feb 19 was trapped under the much larger arctic high and deepened rapidly off Long Island. So no real relation at all. Will speculate on totals near 3" for BWI, DCA and IAD trending to near 4.5 to 6.0" on md-pa border. Watch progress of plains states wave into IA-IL to see if it is overperforming; I expect similar totals for a narrow band through those states by 03z. If we happen to see 5-8 in amounts it could be a sign of similar outcome in PA-md-DE-sNJ but I am not expecting to see 5-8 from the level of degradation of wave observed to 18z -- worst case scenario of total disappearance was averted, but system went from an 8 or 8.5 to a 3 on energy level scale. It appears capable of regaining some intensity to around 4/10 by 12z. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 If we get 2-3", we'll be at around 7-8" including the December event, which is par for the course by this time of year. We'll need Feb & Mar to deliver the goods for us to beat climo. I still think there's good chance of that happening. But for now, let's focus on tomorrow and enjoy it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Thanks Roger 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I assume "worst case" at NWS means "best case" at American Weather Forum ? 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 27 minutes ago, H2O said: I'm not in the blue. Fuck this storm. Its like it knows where I live Might as well get Ellinwood to paint you in the pale grey right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: FTFY <BANTER> I brought that up when they first rolled it out that it was confusing ... It really should be something like 'Reasonable maximum snow accumulation scenario' or something similar </BANTER> 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Out here in Augusta County my 4 model blend has increased from .5" last night to 1.3" with the 12z runs. 1.7" Kuchera. A definite shift south on the GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and ICON. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormy said: Out here in Augusta County my 4 model blend has increased from .5" last night to 1.3" with the 12z runs. 1.7" Kuchera. A definite shift south on the GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and ICON. You listed 5 models. So is the blend 4 or 5 models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: <BANTER> I brought that up when they first rolled it out that it was confusing ... It really should be something like 'Reasonable maximum snow accumulation scenario' or something similar </BANTER> Yeah, I don't think we and the NWS are speaking the same language... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS seems a bit on an island with how dry it is overall.Pretty in line with its bias I’d say.. It also isn’t the best model on picking up banding / dynamics. Tends to paints things more uniform, which is fine. That’s why we have other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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