RVAman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 34 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: I'd like to get more than Richmond. Everyone always roots against Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 32 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: No idea what they've seen that made them cut back on totals since last night. If anything, they should have increased them in some areas. You have to remember that they are pros. They aren’t sitting down there waiting anxiously on the next model and then jumping up and down when it increases snow by a half inch like we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 minutes ago, Interstate said: I am talking more about ratios than anything... FWIW 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On the NAM, surface temps look good for the majority of the storm, although temps approach 32 from about DC south in the later stages as the snow exits. The northern tier never gets above 30. 850's appear fine throughout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WTF, its not March 18, with temps leading in near 55. 12 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: WTF, its not March 18, with temps leading in near 55. In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the surface is fairly chilled at this time. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the surface is fairly chilled at this time. Georgetown isn't 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18 minutes ago, Interstate said: I am talking more about ratios than anything... I don't exaclty expect it to be "puking fatties" tomorrow but this does not concern me with "marginal temps" nor "ratios". Only box not really checked here is the DGZ depth is relatively narrow. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 UKIE is better across the board. This might start getting good with the next two model sets. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 UKIE is slightly improved as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, StormyClearweather said: UKIE is slightly improved as well. Poor short pump. So close yet so far 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 This snippet was in the AFD from LWX as well this morning There are indications of CSI banding moving from south to north Friday morning, so areawide there could be brief reductions in visibilities coupled with higher snowfall rates. Given cold roads, travel could be slick/difficult Friday morning. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: UKIE is slightly improved as well. Wilmington also gets Short Pumped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out. Keep in mind some of the factors shifting it south are also leading to a less amplified wave so its decreasing the totals...so yes we get the max stripe of precip but its .2-.3 qpf not .5 like it was showing up in PA/NJ when it was there a few runs ago. But this is about as good a compromise as we could have hoped for. 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: You guys thought i was kidding last night when I said this was in the bag once thread #2 started. A northern stream wave trending south at gametime. @psuhoffman who would've thought? 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Stronger coastal / early transfer really makes a big difference here. Amazing what a couple mb or a 50 mile shift south on the upper levels can do 1 hour ago, Shad said: what is the reason for the shift? is the coastal low slightly stronger? Yes the vort trended south slightly from 18z yesterday which was the worst run we had across the board IMO... but I think something else was a bigger factor. Look at the trend up over Michigan... The orientation of the TPV lobe left behind at the tail of the trough changed. There is more separation between that and the vort. I think this is good in this case, the less phased, less amplified solution there is not pulling the NS feature to our NW as much and allowing the coastal (whatever weak one there is) to be more the focus sooner. I think this is part of what is responsible for the sudden increase in our snow prospects...the rest being that I started a new thread of course! @WxUSAF @Terpeast @Bob Chill @CAPE @MillvilleWx you see this, thoughts? ETA: I did check and that trend is there across guidance, more pronounced in some, less in others...but seems the ones that trended the most with that are the ones that improved the most! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So? That’s below freezing and so is the ground. What’s your point? And in most of the region very little snow has melted from last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: UKIE is slightly improved as well. I'm wondering if some of the uptick East of the Bay might be due to coastal enhancement, or a better pass from the inverted trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: UKIE is slightly improved as well. DC snowhole is definitely programmed into these machines.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 It's certainly an interesting change of events that has seemed to bring my area (around FXBG) back in the game a bit. I won't fully believe it until Snow is falling, but the trend is there. Cautious optimism for Snow on Snow.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Ukie precip distribution has been so weird last couple runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: FWIW Thank you for this... just as I thought... the ratio start off good... but fade as the winds come in from the east. I looked at the sounds for my area... I am just starting to learn to really read them, but the DGZ doesn't look the best either. I am not trying to be Debbie Downer... I am just trying to analysis all the data available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 You may not be trying but… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'm excited about the possibility of matching or beating my biggest snow in two years, which is about 3.5" earlier this week. Plus when was the last time we had snow on snow?? The kid's school has already been closed all week, and it's looking like a near lock that it will be tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Ukie precip distribution has been so weird last couple runs NAM was doing something similar yesterday. Wonky maps for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 16 minutes ago, yoda said: This snippet was in the AFD from LWX as well this morning There are indications of CSI banding moving from south to north Friday morning, so areawide there could be brief reductions in visibilities coupled with higher snowfall rates. Given cold roads, travel could be slick/difficult Friday morning. What is CSI banding? Does that have to do with coastal influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Good catch @psuhoffman. We’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: It's certainly an interesting change of events that has seemed to bring my area (around FXBG) back in the game a bit. I won't fully believe it until Snow is falling, but the trend is there. Cautious optimism for Snow on Snow.... not sure what to think of that max down by you...seems really odd. but I am pulling for you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: What is CSI banding? Does that have to do with coastal influence? https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12z GFS ensemble continued the trend of getting wetter. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, AlexD1990 said: DT on FB talking about upping his numbers on his next snowfall map So we have seen 0.5” to 10” with glumness last night and better today. It’s going to be longer duration than thought and again mostly light but not as light as much as last time. 2-4” throughout DC area best call 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, blizzardmeiser said: But he is very appreciative of any feedback or criticism he receives... He really handles it well.... I’ve always said that he is most excellent at discussing what it takes for snow around here. However for some reason that skill does not carry over to assessing actual events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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