WVsnowlover Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:56 PM, paxpatriot said: No idea what they've seen that made them cut back on totals since last night. If anything, they should have increased them in some areas. Expand They'll be playing catch-up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 GEM is a tick south with QPF range but pretty damn close to a hold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:53 PM, DDweatherman said: Minor but heights and flow backing off the coast on GFS, trend over last 3 runs Expand To me the piece near WI/MN is slower and giving more space. helps spread things out more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:32 PM, nj2va said: We closed the old thread and started a new one. Expand science!!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:56 PM, paxpatriot said: No idea what they've seen that made them cut back on totals since last night. If anything, they should have increased them in some areas. Expand I believe this is computer generated. Also, remember that the temps are going to marginal, and mostly coming in during the daylight hours. This is going to be a northern tier storm. I think the map looks reasonable. Also, the NAM is on a island by itself with the 12Z run with the amount of snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:59 PM, H2O said: To me the piece near WI/MN is slower and giving more space. helps spread things out more. Expand Agree, acts less as a kicker with it being spaced out in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:02 PM, Interstate said: I believe this is computer generated. Also, remember that the temps are going to marginal, and mostly coming in during the daylight hours. This is going to be a northern tier storm. I think the map looks reasonable. Expand Disagree with that last part. The very problem is that they cut back on totals in the northern tier where we agree the best totals will be. Makes no sense given the model trends in the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:02 PM, Interstate said: I believe this is computer generated. Also, remember that the temps are going to marginal, and mostly coming in during the daylight hours. This is going to be a northern tier storm. I think the map looks reasonable. Also, the NAM is on a island by itself with the 12Z run with the amount of snowfall. Expand Is it? Have you seen the Euro? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:45 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand I think ratios will exceed 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:05 PM, DDweatherman said: Is it? Have you seen the Euro? Expand I said the 12Z model run... I believe the Euro starts around 1PM. No other model gets more than 2 to 2.5 inches in the DC/Balt area other than the NAM. Plus... it is going to be fairly light snow... with marginal temperatures. So even if you get that amount... that is not what is going to be actually on the ground. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:53 PM, DDweatherman said: Minor but heights and flow backing off the coast on GFS, trend over last 3 runs Expand You can see in the snowfall map the heavier stripe starting to turn a little more sw to ne. That would indicate improvement in precip across the region because of the backing you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:09 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I think ratios will exceed 10:1 Expand I agree, at least for the northern tier. 3-4" is looking like a solid bet for us at this point imo. Still time for precip amounts to ramp up a little as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:09 PM, Interstate said: I said the 12Z model run... I believe the Euro starts around 1PM. No other model gets more than 2 to 2.5 inches in the DC/Balt area other than the NAM. Plus... it is going to be fairly light snow... with marginal temperatures. So even if you get that amount... that is not what is going to be actually on the ground. Expand Marginal temps where? Northern tier lows will be in the low 20's overnight (high teens in the Catoctins) with snow beginning around 3am and with snow pack on the ground. If that's marginal, we're all in a lot of trouble. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 And the question of whether snow will stick and the talk of marginal temps … the ground is frigid. If it falls as a snowflake it will stay a snowflake. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:13 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: And the question of whether snow will stick and the talk of marginal temps … the ground is frigid. If it falls as a snowflake it will stay a snowflake. Expand Yeah I'm a tad confused as to why folks are talking about daylight hours and all that as if we're at the beginning of March, lol 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 Gtfo with snow depth maps 2 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:09 PM, Interstate said: I said the 12Z model run... I believe the Euro starts around 1PM. No other model gets more than 2 to 2.5 inches in the DC/Balt area other than the NAM. Plus... it is going to be fairly light snow... with marginal temperatures. So even if you get that amount... that is not what is going to be actually on the ground. Expand Wow, that's a Debbie Downer post if I've ever seen one. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:12 PM, paxpatriot said: Marginal temps where? Northern tier lows will be in the low 20's overnight (high teens in the Catoctins) with snow beginning around 3am and with snow pack on the ground. If that's marginal, we're all in a lot of trouble. Expand The most of the "Heavy Stuff" comes in on Friday... the Temps are supposed to be 30-32 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:13 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: And the question of whether snow will stick and the talk of marginal temps … the ground is frigid. If it falls as a snowflake it will stay a snowflake. Expand My thoughts exactly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:13 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: And the question of whether snow will stick and the talk of marginal temps … the ground is frigid. If it falls as a snowflake it will stay a snowflake. Expand I am talking more about ratios than anything... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 12:19 PM, aldie 22 said: Looks a little better on the southern edges than 0z I'd hit that Expand Everybody grab that light blue and pull...PULL!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:53 PM, jayyy said: No one thinks that. Literally no one. Expand 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:15 PM, Interstate said: The most of the "Heavy Stuff" comes in on Friday... the Temps are supposed to be 30-32 Expand So? That’s below freezing and so is the ground. What’s your point? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:16 PM, Interstate said: I am talking more about ratios than anything... Expand Ok. Could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:02 PM, Interstate said: Also, the NAM is on a island by itself with the 12Z run with the amount of snowfall. Expand The NAM obviously knows about this new thread, maybe word hasn't gotten to the others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:55 PM, adelphi_sky said: I'd like to get more than Richmond. Expand Everyone always roots against Richmond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 3:56 PM, paxpatriot said: No idea what they've seen that made them cut back on totals since last night. If anything, they should have increased them in some areas. Expand You have to remember that they are pros. They aren’t sitting down there waiting anxiously on the next model and then jumping up and down when it increases snow by a half inch like we are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On 1/18/2024 at 4:16 PM, Interstate said: I am talking more about ratios than anything... Expand FWIW 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 On the NAM, surface temps look good for the majority of the storm, although temps approach 32 from about DC south in the later stages as the snow exits. The northern tier never gets above 30. 850's appear fine throughout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18, 2024 Share Posted January 18, 2024 WTF, its not March 18, with temps leading in near 55. 12 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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