WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Like I’ve said a a lot recently, the NAM brothers are really good models that can be trusted without question. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, mappy said: I can't believe creating a new thread really worked It's always the thread after the thread that's the one. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Euro and NAM both painting 4-4.5” around these parts. Come on GFS! Euro/Nam is a pretty good LR/SR combo. We've been doing well with QPF lately, too. The rest is TBD. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 What is the chance my 6am flight out of DCA is impacted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 EE rule? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Like I’ve said a a lot recently, the NAM brothers are really good models that can be trusted without question. The ones showing the highest QPF clearly have the best primitive equations and the most data points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 hires FV3 looks fine, but a little less exciting, if you want another piece of guidance to latch onto 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. Forecast Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys) Zone E: 5-10” Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7” Living on the edge of your Zone C and Zone D. I'd happily take another 3" as would my kids! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, wxmvpete said: Living on the edge of your Zone C and Zone D. I'd happily take another 3" as would my kids! I like 3-5” for your hood at your elevation. I think people like you, @HighStakes @psuhoffman up there towards the M/D should do pretty well with this one! Be sure to add a max right over your house if you’re doing the Winter Desk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: hires FV3 looks fine, but a little less exciting, if you want another piece of guidance to latch onto ARW is also better... these mesos might suck but I'd still have them rather be on our side than not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: hires FV3 looks fine, but a little less exciting, if you want another piece of guidance to latch onto FV3 did really bad only gave 1-3 last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 CWG is paying attention. “Models ticking up a bit…update midday.” 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I like 3-5” for your hood at your elevation. I think people like you, @HighStakes @psuhoffman up there towards the M/D should do pretty well with this one! Be sure to add a max right over your house if you’re doing the Winter Desk I'm starting to really like tomorrow. Models are converging on the highest totals in northern MD. Hopefully there's not a last minute shift. To expand on your post about ratios, I agree. I expect mostly 15:1 up here. We always do well with ratios even in more marginal storms. The Euro which always is warmer than GFS has Westminster at 27 at 18z with 850's at -8. I think 20:1 is not out of the questions especially if we still have some banding the last several hours of the storm. Trying not to be to weenieish!! Lol. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I like 3-5” for your hood at your elevation. I think people like you, @HighStakes @psuhoffman up there towards the M/D should do pretty well with this one! Be sure to add a max right over your house if you’re doing the Winter Desk Josh is on the grids today and I'm the afternoon winter shift, so I'll shoot him a message 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Like I’ve said a a lot recently, the NAM brothers are really good models that can be trusted without question.They should just eliminate hours 42-84 and make it a short range model. It’s certainly better than the FV3 at this point. Did pretty well with the last storm once we were within 36 hours or so. Pretty shitty outside 36 hours but that’s fine. Use it for its strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 CWG is paying attention. “Models ticking up a bit…update midday.”I would be too after they died on their 1-2” hill last storm. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: I'm staring to really like tomorrow. Models are converging on the highest totals in northern MD. Hopefully there's not a last minute shift. To expand on your post about ratios, I agree. I expect mostly 15:1 up here. We always do well with ratios even in more marginal storms. The Euro which always is warmer than GFS has Westminster at 27 at 18z with 850's at -8. I think 20:1 is not out of the questions especially if we still have some banding the last several hours of the storm. Trying not to be to weenieish!! Lol. Definitely agree. It’s just the historical trend that has occurred for you guys up that way. A little orographic assistance helps locally with ascent and ratios. Should be a winter wonderland in your area by tomorrow afternoon. Loving the trends this morning. This vort is pretty decent, so as long as it isn’t too far north, there’s some solid 7H VV’s and strong LER dynamics to work with. Probably see some scattered banding structures out of this one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 32 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it is - that map jumped the gun mmm.... Looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 25 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Thought this would be a good time to make a rudimentary snow map for ole times sake. Apologies for the crude map design. Doing this on my phone, but still works good enough. Each area is a zone with a first call forecast. Might have a few edits later, but this could very well be my only call. Forecast Zone A: Nothing-1” (Trace begins north of Potomac latitude); Up to 2” possible if everything breaks right Zone B: 1-2” w/ max to 3” if everything breaks right Zone C: 2-4” (Highest across Parrs Ridge; elevations >600’) Zone D: 2.5-5” w/ local max of 6” (Highest along the M/D Line and elevations >850’. Lowest in elevations <275’ in valleys) Zone E: 5-10” Catoctins: 4-6” w/ max to 7” Looks pretty reasonable. I'm just south of that C line in B territory, so 2" is a good target for mby. Hopefully it breaks right as you say and I make a run for 3". Just need that vort to stay a bit south and NoVA to work its radar backbuilding magic like it sometimes does in these budding coastal setups. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Looks like the heaviest snow producer could be the overnight 5 AM band as the LP shifts towards the coast. The path towards success is a stronger more organized LP off the NC coast. This would make temps slightly more marginal but I think it would be a worth it trade off for I-95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NAM starting at 9z will get a solid base down before sun angle is a factor at all. Will be a relatively high impact event with cold road temps going in if the NAM is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Love the MOISTNESS trend at mid-levels. this is comparing the last couple nam 3k runs 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Alfoman said: Looks like the heaviest snow producer could be the overnight 5 AM band as the LP shifts towards the coast. The path towards success is a stronger more organized LP off the NC coast. This would make temps slightly more marginal but I think it would be a worth it trade off for I-95 See the difference of the vort trending south and the LP north on the NAM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 RGEM looks a hair better on the early maps - don't think it'll be the NAMs but shouldn't be getting any worse edit: def a modest push south and a little wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 ICON is a very positive shift from 06z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 28 minutes ago, EB89 said: What is the chance my 6am flight out of DCA is impacted? Call your airline representative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 You guys thought i was kidding last night when I said this was in the bag once thread #2 started. A northern stream wave trending south at gametime. @psuhoffman who would've thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Alfoman said: See the difference of the vort trending south and the LP north on the NAM Stronger coastal / early transfer really makes a big difference here. Amazing what a couple mb or a 50 mile shift south on the upper levels can do 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 RGEM is moister. Mostly a 1-2 affair with some (near) 3s, wider than 06z. No NAM, but good to see other models latching on to a QPF bump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Clearly it's about who creates the thread as to whether we get an event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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