jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Doug k asking people to share this map on FacebookHe even drew you a weenie back into Leesburg. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS looks a little wetter (possibly close to the 12k NAM?) to my amateur eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS looks very similar to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS looks very similar to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 00z GFS is okay Baltimore-north. Further south I think the rates are so bad it’ll be scenic and make the snow piles a hair fluffier. map ninja’d 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The purpose of this system is to recover the 1-2” lost via compaction and melting from the Monday storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z GFS is okay Baltimore-north. Further south I think the rates are so bad it’ll be scenic and make the snow piles a hair fluffier. map ninja’d Will look wintry Friday and refresh the snow. Getting us primed for our February HECS when this map becomes the 30 min snowfall map. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think it actually looks like a better vort pass than the 12k NAM… NAM just looks a little negatively tilted and I think that helps out with the coastal side of things, even for spots DC/eastApologies for attempting analysis hope it’s not too off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Will look wintry Friday and refresh the snow. Getting us primed for our February HECS when this map becomes the 30 min snowfall map. If we keep having these weak winters, a HECS will be 6" of snow. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I don’t think that’s inaccurate, the pass hasn’t trended against us at 0z if we’re looking for something in the positive column. We’re still alive and on the playing field for tomorrow. Just gotta root for a euro hold overnight and at 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 remember this run a few days ago? Me either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I’ll take a GFS Euro blend for $1, Alex. 2-3” seems reasonable as a boom scenario for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 remember this run a few days ago? Me eitherYou heard Roger… there’s 18” of snow near the Idaho panhandle. We got this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, jayyy said: You heard Roger… there’s 18” of snow near the Idaho panhandle. We got this. only if weather53 confirms that this is part of his forecasting equation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Whatever Cincinnati gets, we’ll get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 euro’d 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Basically a hold from 12 and 18Z correct?. Eta: Nice looks wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro ticked way upSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro ticked way upSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk00zSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 36 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Good trend for sure. Way better for N MD. One more tick south like that and we'll all be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 First and last call: anyone getting an inch out of this will be super lucky. It's all at my place. I could drop some off just call 1-800-GOT-SNOW. Seriously, I hope it works out better, if only this departing low (now near Yellowstone Park) wasn't being sheared to bits by terrain, and forced to compete for space on Thursday with an arctic high, and it could just glide across the central plains states to VA, then I would say 5-8 inches easy. And it could almost work out that way, a surface circulation may not necessarily always be in evidence, but if the vorticity stayed intact and could trigger a low in KY or WV by late tomorrow, that is a route to getting 3-5 inches at least. But I have a feeling the GFS is correct and it will be a weak norlun feature into Ohio, giving PA-NJ-NYC 1-2" and your region Tr to 1.0" in general (agree on 4-6 west of Blue Ridge). Fingers crossed this plucky little storm can find a way across the hostile arid plains. I did so there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Late night report, 3km shifts the precip about 100 miles of 18&0z. Gets substantially more precip into the DC N crew, especially the northern burbs. HRRR also shifted south similarly, though not quite as much yet. followed up a pretty damn robust 0z euro run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Late night report, 3km shifts the precip about 100 miles of 18&0z. Gets substantially more precip into the DC N crew, especially the northern burbs. HRRR also shifted south similarly, though not quite as much yet. followed up a pretty damn robust 0z euro run What can you do. Onward and upward toward Feb. after next weeks spring preview. Fresh start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What can you do. Onward and upward toward Feb. after next weeks spring preview. Fresh start You might be right, but I said it shifts the precip south, so did HRRR. May be too late to get NoVa folks, but there have been some decent runs in the overnight window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WB 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 When I saw how NAm was handling pressure, popping out a low over VA, I expected snowfall zone to be shifting south further, and it looks odd to have the streak of snow in montana and SD when the storm has shifted towards southeast ID and into WY. It would make more sense to depict snow in NE, s IA, c IL, IN and then KY, WV and VA. Let's see what GFS does in response to what I would expect to be much better sampling of western low's dynamics now that it has been over land for nearly 24h. Skies cleared out here with a measured 17.5" of dry powder, I don't do core samples but it shovels easily so I would guess perhaps 0.60" to 0.80" liquid. No wind so it just settles slowly. Would keep an eye on snow reports later today from places in NE and IA into central IL-IN, if you see 2-4" amounts it may be a sign the fast-paced low is keeping some organization and could redevelop by evening in Ohio, nKY, WV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Euro’s my ride or die. Let’s go. That said, 6z gfs looks like a good shift for immediate DC area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 WWAs incoming?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That looks really decent up this way- hoping for another south shift for dc and nova folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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