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Jan 19th Snow on Snow: the this always works until it doesn't thread


psuhoffman
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2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Are they still using the RPM model?

 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Live and die by the GRAF

They actually showed the Euro just now on their broadcast, so better than when they were showing the HRRR on the 6pm news Monday.  

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Mount Holly with a WWA for central/northern DE, eastern PA, and most of NJ. 1-3/2-5 deal from south to north. A bit of waxing and waning the last few days, but this is the general outcome guidance has been consistently depicting.

1-2 here is fine with me. Never expected anything more with this synoptic setup.

This DFH WWS is stellar.

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What you need is for weather (snowstorm) here in s/c BC to translate e.s.e. without entirely losing its identity over the plains states as most guidance has been suggesting, and only a shadow of this aggressive system (12" snow in 16h and 5-10 more expected) surviving ... this is because no coherent center of low pressure is able to keep going (on guidance) and the energy almost dissipates before trying to recover over Ohio and s PA on its way to join forces with an offshore low that won't in and of itself be a snow producer, your snow if any would come from any processes within the inland secondary (which is the shadow of this sizeable western snowfall associated with a low tracking east into WA and later ID, then s.e. to WY tonight).

You might see 0.5 to 1.5 inches from an inverted trof (Norlun) situation or a weak circulation forming at last minute before being sucked out to sea, or you could see 2-4 inches from a more organized system, top end would be 4-8 inches if my low gets more sustainable beyond about Scottsbluff to Goodland KS and can keep trucking east on I-80 as more than just elevated virga and light snow which is what is being suggested on a lot of guidance now. It's too bad because 90% of lows like this keep an identity and keep going across central plains states. This one seems to be dumping its load over Pac NW and s BC and giving up the fight.

Best results for you would be to see models tracking any kind of coherent low east from WY-NE or even CO-KS regions on Thursday into IL-IN by early Friday. I will do a snow dance when I go out to shovel out my car later. (s.o.g. in the bush here is now close to 30" and 25" of it fell since Jan 6, it was quite bare frozen snow before).  

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Seems like the expected snowfall map from LWX increased from this morning for northern areasimage.thumb.jpeg.0997a7d72409e81864985466fa72fff5.jpeg

See? You throw the first “thread” out there as a sacrifice to Boreas, if the despair amuses him, he delivers.

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24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I like this thread and feel good about our chances. Just remember though the euro will not have this new data available about our new thread. So we need to wait until the 0Z runs to see the results of our new thread.

Wrong, I called them and asked for a special date ingest on our account. Don’t be surprised if it’s an improvement. 

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Just my two copper coin's worth (not much, probably!)...

So after watching this event and checking the discussion here, I think the expectation really should be that we'll have a wintry feeling day with on the order of an inch or so (in most places).  I don't see any point in haggling over what models and what cycles show some minor 0.1" difference from run to run at this point, just a day and a half out.  That is my general feeling and expectation now.  Disappointing after some of the indications we saw earlier?  Sure.  And who knows, maybe trends will end up wetter or we'll over-perform and get a couple of inches or so.  Either way, I cannot complain that much...it caps of a rather wintry week to be honest, before we go into the wilderness of blah next week...after which, hopefully, we'll have better chances again toward the last couple of days of this month or early February (and on into the first part of March!).

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly with a WWA for central/northern DE, eastern PA, and most of NJ. 1-3/2-5 deal from south to north. A bit of waxing and waning the last few days, but this is the general outcome guidance has been consistently depicting.

1-2 here is fine with me. Never expected anything more with this synoptic setup.

This DFH WWS is stellar.

That is pretty early for a WWA... Most of the time they issue the day before a storm unless they were under a Winter Storm Watch

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26 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Seems like the expected snowfall map from LWX increased from this morning for northern areasimage.thumb.jpeg.0997a7d72409e81864985466fa72fff5.jpeg

Looks like Deep creek/Canaan are the places to be this weekend. Wisp will probably be 100% open after this next storm and could top 60” on the year so far. Mountains have had a great January for the ski resorts. 

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

That is pretty early for a WWA... Most of the time they issue the day before a storm unless they were under a Winter Storm Watch

I suppose the general consistency across guidance has bolstered their confidence, and there is an increasing signal over the past few runs of the NBM for 2-4"+ from N DE into central NJ.

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like Deep creek/Canaan are the places to be this weekend. Wisp will probably be 100% open after this next storm and could top 60” on the year so far. Mountains have had a great January for the ski resorts. 

I think I’m gonna ski white grass this Saturday. 

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like Deep creek/Canaan are the places to be this weekend. Wisp will probably be 100% open after this next storm and could top 60” on the year so far. Mountains have had a great January for the ski resorts. 

yeah.hopefully keeps up and Garrett/Tucker can have big winters.  Canaan is up to 82" and has had measurable in 10 out of the last 11 days. 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

yeah.hopefully keeps up and Garrett/Tucker can have big winters.  Canaan is up to 82" and has had measurable in 10 out of the last 11 days. 

Once I get past my busy period at work I am hoping to head out there. That probably coincides with the upcoming advertised milder period unfortunately lol.

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