weathervswife Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 really trying hard to get those high UVV's into our area from the SE if it can, we'll see the 6-10" for certain http://www.nco.ncep....00_l_loop.shtml Best image I've seen all day, especially the last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 my God the NAM is maddening look at that dry air over central MD at 12 hours it better recover quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 really trying hard to get those high UVV's into our area from the SE if it can, we'll see the 6-10" for certain http://www.nco.ncep....00_l_loop.shtml Ive seen that loop before...usually ends up NW of that...I'm confident now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM ain't gonna do it for us what is its problem the SREF's nail us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM still looks screwy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM still looks screwy surface Low is 200 miles+ off ORF at 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM ain't gonna do it for us what is its problem the SREF's nail us I shall no longer comment on the NAM since Randy got mad at me for saying it was a red flag this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 surface Low is 200 miles+ off ORF at 18 hrs How is that going to look any good for anyone South of NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I shall no longer comment on the NAM since Randy got mad at me for saying it was a red flag this morning its either gonna score a coup or completely miss this storm if the SREF's weren't so bullish after 4 straight runs, I would be more concerned but there's always that nagging doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Sitting at about 2.5" so far in ROA and about 30 degrees. Snowing more moderately at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 NAM gives us about an inch or so?..... of snow. not qpf . Hopefully GFS and EURO turn it around in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 comparing the NAM to the 0Z RUC, you can see how much better the RUC is with the 700mb map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 comparing the NAM to the 0Z RUC, you can see how much better the RUC is with the 700mb map How did RUC look in terms of QPF for the DC/Balt area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The NAM may never come back from the lunch it has been out on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 surface Low is 200 miles+ off ORF at 18 hrs Convective feedback... it should be where the little circle is in the blue just NNE of HSE... so this basically throws off the next two frames. Useless model in a bombing situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I shall no longer comment on the NAM since Randy got mad at me for saying it was a red flag this morning Yeah, I was spittin' mad. Clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What we need to watch for in the next couple of hours is whether the moderate to heavy moisture condenses around the LP along the coast. If we start to see that over the next couple of hours than I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is on to something. For now though, things looks great from a nowcast point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like a 2-4" in the DC/Balti CWA. Hrs 6-12 look funky to my untrained eye, but what could the NAM be seeing that the SREF isn't.. at this range? I don't recall ever seeing these two this far apart 8 hrs before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I just don't understand...the NAM can't turn the damn corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Convective feedback... it should be where the little circle is in the blue just NNE of HSE... so this basically throws off the next two frames. Useless model in a bombing situation. I noticed that. That hook of blue QPF north of HSE is definitely suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah, I was spittin' mad. Clearly. You've clearly lost your sense of humor with me....hopefully one day we can get that back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Based on the current models as well as historical trends of banding, I'd say a safe forecast 8 hours out is 2-14" across the Balt DC area lol, this storm is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Based on the current models as well as historical trends of banding, I'd say a safe forecast 8 hours out is 2-14" across the Balt DC area lol, this storm is ridiculous More like 0-14. I've never spent so much time analyzing models....if this all goes to waste I'll shoot myself in the package and be done with it. Given the constant flip flopping, if the GFS by some Miracle holds serve, I think we can count the NAM as an unlikely outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The RUC has been very solid for us - 1Z is a good storm too Look at the 850mb lp bomb Pinhole eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS is better in setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 More like 0-14. I've never spent so much time analyzing models....if this all goes to waste I'll shoot myself in the package and be done with it. I think you'll be okay. Don't see how this can give us 0 at this point, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Almost every single SREF member gives DCA at least .50" QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The NAM may verify for NJ on NE'ward but I suspect its having problems south of there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The SREFs are sure DC gets 5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Almost every single SREF member gives DCA at least .50" QPF... They do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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