VA/WVA/MD/DC CHRISTMAS 2010 OBS THREAD

[Terpeast]

I'm not sure that northward push of the precip shield is going to be enough for DC and west. Maybe that upper level low can crank up enough for us to get some snow, but that precip shield is moving too fast to the east for my liking. Of course, the rule is to never extrapolate radar trends more than 30 min into the future.

[Jebman]

I have a Winter Storm Watch - But i'm fine with it. I got TWO 24 inch storms last winter.

I'll take 2 to 5 inches in eastern Prince William County and be happy. So what if I only have a winter storm watch? This storm is NOT all about me! I hope the Eastern Shore gets utterly destroyed with over two feet of fresh powder. WOW - Who would 'a thunk it? Richmond has had snowfall since 5pm this afternoon!!!!

Enjoy the snow, DT man!!! Merry Christmas!!! Hope you get nailed with 12 inches down there!!

[MidlothianWX]

Temp 30.6

Light snow with roughly 1.1" accumulated so far

[real]

Precip, for now, does appear to be moving more far more east than north. Read on Philly thread that it's already snowing in Cape May Jersey, apparently after skirting from Virginia south of DC and across the Eastern Shore of MD.

[MidlothianWX]

Precip, for now, does appear to be moving more far more east than north. Read on Philly thread that it's already snowing in Cape May Jersey, apparently after skirting from Virginia south of DC and across the Eastern Shore of MD.

"Skirting from Virginia south of DC and across the Eastern Shore of MD"??

You do realize that it has been snowing here non-stop since 3 PM?

[Ian]

Precip, for now, does appear to be moving more far more east than north. Read on Philly thread that it's already snowing in Cape May Jersey, apparently after skirting from Virginia south of DC and across the Eastern Shore of MD.

This was all modeled more or less. The flow hasn't backed enough yet.

[Riptide]

"Skirting from Virginia south of DC and across the Eastern Shore of MD"??

You do realize that it has been snowing here non-stop since 3 PM?

It is also snowing in Georgetown and Salisbury on the Delmarva. The storm is really starting to deepen, Norfolk was reporting an E wind as of the last hour.

[real]

Yes, your snow is moving Northeast across Chesepeake Bay, into southern eastern shore of Maryland and then I guess into Cape May New Jersey.

[Terpeast]

"Skirting from Virginia south of DC and across the Eastern Shore of MD"??

You do realize that it has been snowing here non-stop since 3 PM?

At least that means the low-mid levels are moist enough so when the echoes go over us, it'll start snowing right away and not have any of it wasted in dry air. The initial wave that brought flurries to the DC area helped moisten the atmosphere somewhat (I know because I saw it with my own eyes as I flew into DCA this afternoon).

[MidlothianWX]

Yes, your snow is moving Northeast across Chesepeake Bay, into southern eastern shore of Maryland and then I guess into Cape May New Jersey.

OK, I was just under the impression that you were saying the snow already moved out of this area.

[yoda]

Is it snowing near or just south of KEZF? KCHO is reporting -SN

[stormtracker]

Precip, for now, does appear to be moving more far more east than north. Read on Philly thread that it's already snowing in Cape May Jersey, apparently after skirting from Virginia south of DC and across the Eastern Shore of MD.

lol

[Huffwx]

Well, we've had snow falling every hour since 5 AM, and an inch to show for it. Nice to have a white Christmas no doubt--but its not the most fun. I did get the kids mini shovels for Christmas because the fought over the one good mini shovel in the Dec 16th event.

[CAPE]

Lght snow and 30 degrees here on central eastern shore of MD. ground covered so technically a white xmas. btw those already freaking out about radar trends moving eastp...models showed this and once the low gets going on the coast then the snow shield will progress north and west as the CCB develops.

[MN Transplant]

I hope so because the RUC is rather troubling

I never look at it, but have been today and am not impressed at all with it for us

if its right, we get fringed on the western side of the Bay, and not a good fringed

but I could be looking for something to go wrong, but who could blame me after this one?

This doesn't look too bad.

[astarck]

Is it snowing near or just south of KEZF? KCHO is reporting -SN

Been flurrying all day around Fredericksburg (I'm just east of it by a couple miles). Started lightly snowing a few hours ago. Ground is getting white. Mulch and concrete is white. Pavement is wet.

[Bob Chill]

RUC doesn't look bad at all. I would think it's near impossible to model exactly what is going to happen with the western edge of precip in the southern MA.

I don't know if it's the Christmas cocktails or just plain weenieism but I'm very optimistic that heavier bands make it to IAD and Frederick MD.

[Dr No]

There's a magic barrier up keeping the snow out of northern VA... it's called karma.

Echoes on composite reflectivity to the west, so I guess there was enough dry air aloft that its needs to moisten up a bit. The next n'ward surge should do it.

[MDstorm]

<br />RUC doesn't look bad at all. I would think it's near impossible to model exactly what is going to happen with the western edge of precip in the southern MA. <br /><br />I don't know if it's the Christmas cocktails or just plain weenieism but I'm very optimistic that heavier bands make it to IAD and Frederick MD.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Christmas cocktails help a lot. I just drank some January 2000 Kool-aid and I expect to see a northward radar trend shortly.

MDstorm

[Bob Chill]

Piece of energy that dropped down into TN/KY is now joining the party. Radar shows the precip is phasing in.

[fred wx man]

I live 4sw of fredericksburg. snowing since 4pm and now covering the deck... roads are wet... I like the look of the ruc as it appears it showing more moisture backbuilding with 700mb low now tracking overhead

[MidlothianWX]

There's a magic barrier up keeping the snow out of northern VA... it's called karma.

Echoes on composite reflectivity to the west, so I guess there was enough dry air aloft that its needs to moisten up a bit. The n'ward surge should do it.

I'm surprised it hasn't made its way up there yet. I guess we just got lucky down here with the positioning of the low and everything. Right as the moisture/precip was coming through, it began to pivot slightly, thus keeping us in the blue for the better part of the evening.

[southmdwatcher]

Been snowling steady with small flakes for an hour now south of Waldorf

[Ian]

There's a magic barrier up keeping the snow out of northern VA... it's called karma.

Echoes on composite reflectivity to the west, so I guess there was enough dry air aloft that its needs to moisten up a bit. The next n'ward surge should do it.

It will start snowing around or a few hrs before dawn DC south... As planned.

[Dr No]

It will start snowing around or a few hrs before dawn DC south... As planned.

Thanks Lama

[weathervswife]

What do we make of the moderate snow all the way out into central Kentucky? The radar is actually expanding nicely off the the SW now rather than diminishing with the cold air infiltration.

[Dr No]

What do we make of the moderate snow all the way out into central Kentucky? The radar is actually expanding nicely off the the SW now rather than diminishing with the cold air infiltration.

We could probably ask Kentuckians to make snowmen out of it.

[psuhoffman]

I'm not sure that northward push of the precip shield is going to be enough for DC and west. Maybe that upper level low can crank up enough for us to get some snow, but that precip shield is moving too fast to the east for my liking. Of course, the rule is to never extrapolate radar trends more than 30 min into the future.

While the precip is progressing east, it is also tilting pretty quickly more and more to the left. Looking at a long term loop it looks like it may go negative in time. Also that energy in TN is in the process right now of phasing in, in the next few hours we will know I think because that will either start to back everything in, or it will not and its game, set, match for DC west.

[BayStatuh2NoVA]

It will start snowing around or a few hrs before dawn DC south... As planned.

NWS Precipitation Onset *was* forecast to start around midnight in southern DC suburbs

NWS Sterling VA - Precipitation Onset graphic

Also from Sterling:

000

FXUS61 KLWX 260018

AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

718 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE

UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SNOW TO

THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING

THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --ADJUSTED START TIME OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES A FEW

HRS EARLIER SINCE IT IS ALREADY SNOWING LIGHTLY JUST SOUTH OF DC.

SEE /WBCWSWLWX/ FOR MORE DETAILS. NRN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD

GRADUALLY EDGE NWD INTO MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE ERN PANHANDLE AND NRN MD. ANY SNOW OR FLURRIES

THIS EVE WILL BE LIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS

POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS WE

PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...BY EVENING EXPECT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SNOW TO REACH

THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL

VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS. WE WILL BEGIN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR

SNOW AT 10 PM FOR THIS AREA.

SNOW WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE

NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING THE DC AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 4 AM AND

BALTIMORE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. SEE THE SHORT TERM SECTION FOR MORE

DETAILS ABOUT HEADLINES AND AMOUNTS.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Bob Chill]

It will start snowing around or a few hrs before dawn DC south... As planned.

Nah, based on drunk weenie radar halucinations, we should be seeing our first flakes @ 11:59pm. White Christmas.