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VA/WVA/MD/DC CHRISTMAS 2010 OBS THREAD


Midlo Snow Maker

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I would have to agree, I think its kind of goofy that where I live, 3 counties North of DC, we are under a watch for 6-10, but Mont Co and Frederick are in 3-5.

Yeah, just a Winter Weather Advisory for Frederick and Carroll Counties in central MD. Just 2-5" predicted by the NWS.

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Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Windy, with a north wind between 25 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 21 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

6-12 Sweet!

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Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Windy, with a north wind between 25 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 21 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

6-12 Sweet!

hmm, 20 minutes at most down the road from me , yet I get this forecast?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Linthicum+Heights&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=39.208&lon=-76.6695

maybe it hasn't updated, but that seems fishy

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Computer generated point and click.. I doubt any human had anything to do with generating that specific forecast.

well, they have to draw a line somewhere, and I understand that

just feels better living on the other side of the tracks this event, that's all

but living on the edge is my name

you see....%*^&^^*^%^#^&^(*(_(*(*&%#$^

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well, they have to draw a line somewhere, and I understand that

just feels better living on the other side of the tracks this event, that's all

but living on the edge is my name

you see....%*^&^^*^%^#^&^(*(_(*(*&%#$^

Hey Mitchnick, I'm looking for you to pull this one out with your obs. I have a bad feeling with things trending(model wise) the way they have been over the last 12 hours. If things trend any more NE, this will become painful to watch. Here's to a better 0z run.

MDstorm

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Hey Mitchnick, I'm looking for you to pull this one out with your obs. I have a bad feeling with things trending(model wise) the way they have been over the last 12 hours. If things trend any more NE, this will become painful to watch. Here's to a better 0z run.

MDstorm

well, the RUC is not really giving me a whole lot of confidence to be honest, but it is hot and cold with these storms

like I said before, obs look great but computer progs not so much

a little befuddling

ahh, nothing we can do but sit, watch and hope

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Apparently there were some minor snow accum shifts in the ZPFs... Spotsy/Stafford/Prince William/Fairfax now in the 4-6 range... WSW/WWA's are being moved forward SEVERAL HOURS...

Wouldn't that bump them up to a warning? It still says they have an advisory.

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Don't know how much it will affect us... but:

baroclinic instability put it better than I could on twitter:

"The phase is complete, the Gulf of Mexico is in play, it is lights out East Coast. A true Miller A classic Noreaster."

Get ready dudes. It has been a very long time since I have been this excited about a snowstorm.

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Energy moving into western TN/KY is getting really close to phasing in. It should be really interesting what the radar looks like around midnight.

Hopefully the sharp cutoff will move west 30 miles and I-95 W can get into some heavy bands. I'm feeling a little optimistic that the southern MA over performs on this one. NJ-NY are going to be completely shut down. I hope travelers in that area have the sense to stay off the roads. Getting stranded could last many hours and wreak havoc on the unprepared.

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Energy moving into western TN/KY is getting really close to phasing in. It should be really interesting what the radar looks like around midnight.

Hopefully the sharp cutoff will move west 30 miles and I-95 W can get into some heavy bands. I'm feeling a little optimistic that the southern MA over performs on this one. NJ-NY are going to be completely shut down. I hope travelers in that area have the sense to stay off the roads. Getting stranded could last many hours and wreak havoc on the unprepared.

I hope so because the RUC is rather troubling

I never look at it, but have been today and am not impressed at all with it for us

if its right, we get fringed on the western side of the Bay, and not a good fringed

but I could be looking for something to go wrong, but who could blame me after this one?

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I hope so because the RUC is rather troubling

I never look at it, but have been today and am not impressed at all with it for us

if its right, we get fringed on the western side of the Bay, and not a good fringed

but I could be looking for something to go wrong, but who could blame me after this one?

We're on the same page there. This is a REALLY close call for MD/VA west of 95. That sharp cutoff is going to break some hearts for sure. Models won't be able to nail it down with a storm like this. Such a dynamic set up that things can change on a dime. All we can do now is watch radar and hope for the best.

We can just as easily see an inch or two or 8"+. Delmarva should get a pretty good shellacking either way.

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