mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That northern energy is going straight for the Gulf of Mexico....incredible look at the sat pic http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html now look at the instability rain showers In Louisiana caused by the cold air aloft diving south http://radar.weather...issvly_loop.php very sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would have to agree, I think its kind of goofy that where I live, 3 counties North of DC, we are under a watch for 6-10, but Mont Co and Frederick are in 3-5. Yeah, just a Winter Weather Advisory for Frederick and Carroll Counties in central MD. Just 2-5" predicted by the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sometimes the precip gradient is much higher then what the models pick up on and I 95 looks like it could be the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I changed my flight back to the 6a one... could be close but I should get back. Worst case I get stuck and have to go through a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I changed my flight back to the 6a one... could be close but I should get back. Worst case I get stuck and have to go through a blizzard. Oh well. You may be coming back to a minor 6-10 inch storm, but at least you have the memories of last winter to remind yourself what real storms are like. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Windy, with a north wind between 25 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 21 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 6-12 Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well at least the curse of not having a KU with a mod/strong Nina will be broken. Folks can't use that as an excuse for future storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Temp 31.2 Continued light/moderate snow with 0.25" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The snow is just absolutely beautiful right now - the spotlights in the front yard are illuminating it. Nothing better than a Christmas snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nerd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 24. Windy, with a north wind between 25 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind between 21 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 6-12 Sweet! hmm, 20 minutes at most down the road from me , yet I get this forecast? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Linthicum+Heights&state=MD&site=LWX&lat=39.208&lon=-76.6695 maybe it hasn't updated, but that seems fishy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 worse than that, I just checked the Glen Burnie zip code, 5 minutes away and it has the same forecast as FiveAlarmPhotography! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hmm, 20 minutes at most down the road from me , yet I get this forecast? http://forecast.weat...08&lon=-76.6695 maybe it hasn't updated, but that seems fishy It seems that they were updated around the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 worse than that, I just checked the Glen Burnie zip code, 5 minutes away and it has the same forecast as FiveAlarmPhotography! Computer generated point and click.. I doubt any human had anything to do with generating that specific forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 flow is really starting to back right now. I like the way the precip orientation is rotating right now. Especially that energy in TN diving in. This might really explode in the next few hours and then its all downhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is from earlier in the afternoon. Probably double the amount of snow on the ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Computer generated point and click.. I doubt any human had anything to do with generating that specific forecast. well, they have to draw a line somewhere, and I understand that just feels better living on the other side of the tracks this event, that's all but living on the edge is my name you see....%*^&^^*^%^#^&^(*(_(*(*&%#$^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 flow is really starting to back right now. I like the way the precip orientation is rotating right now. Especially that energy in TN diving in. This might really explode in the next few hours and then its all downhill. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 well, they have to draw a line somewhere, and I understand that just feels better living on the other side of the tracks this event, that's all but living on the edge is my name you see....%*^&^^*^%^#^&^(*(_(*(*&%#$^ Hey Mitchnick, I'm looking for you to pull this one out with your obs. I have a bad feeling with things trending(model wise) the way they have been over the last 12 hours. If things trend any more NE, this will become painful to watch. Here's to a better 0z run. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Mitchnick, I'm looking for you to pull this one out with your obs. I have a bad feeling with things trending(model wise) the way they have been over the last 12 hours. If things trend any more NE, this will become painful to watch. Here's to a better 0z run. MDstorm well, the RUC is not really giving me a whole lot of confidence to be honest, but it is hot and cold with these storms like I said before, obs look great but computer progs not so much a little befuddling ahh, nothing we can do but sit, watch and hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Apparently there were some minor snow accum shifts in the ZPFs... Spotsy/Stafford/Prince William/Fairfax now in the 4-6 range... WSW/WWA's are being moved forward SEVERAL HOURS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Apparently there were some minor snow accum shifts in the ZPFs... Spotsy/Stafford/Prince William/Fairfax now in the 4-6 range... WSW/WWA's are being moved forward SEVERAL HOURS... Wouldn't that bump them up to a warning? It still says they have an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wouldn't that bump them up to a warning? It still says they have an advisory. You'd think so.. but it didn't. Though DC proper with its Alex/Falls Church/Arlington is 4-6 with WSW.. I guess we will see later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Don't know how much it will affect us... but: baroclinic instability put it better than I could on twitter: "The phase is complete, the Gulf of Mexico is in play, it is lights out East Coast. A true Miller A classic Noreaster." Get ready dudes. It has been a very long time since I have been this excited about a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Energy moving into western TN/KY is getting really close to phasing in. It should be really interesting what the radar looks like around midnight. Hopefully the sharp cutoff will move west 30 miles and I-95 W can get into some heavy bands. I'm feeling a little optimistic that the southern MA over performs on this one. NJ-NY are going to be completely shut down. I hope travelers in that area have the sense to stay off the roads. Getting stranded could last many hours and wreak havoc on the unprepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 BTW -- http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 BTW -- http://www.erh.noaa....wx/winterstorm/ Nice, Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Same shot before every snow... Worry worry worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Energy moving into western TN/KY is getting really close to phasing in. It should be really interesting what the radar looks like around midnight. Hopefully the sharp cutoff will move west 30 miles and I-95 W can get into some heavy bands. I'm feeling a little optimistic that the southern MA over performs on this one. NJ-NY are going to be completely shut down. I hope travelers in that area have the sense to stay off the roads. Getting stranded could last many hours and wreak havoc on the unprepared. I hope so because the RUC is rather troubling I never look at it, but have been today and am not impressed at all with it for us if its right, we get fringed on the western side of the Bay, and not a good fringed but I could be looking for something to go wrong, but who could blame me after this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I hope so because the RUC is rather troubling I never look at it, but have been today and am not impressed at all with it for us if its right, we get fringed on the western side of the Bay, and not a good fringed but I could be looking for something to go wrong, but who could blame me after this one? We're on the same page there. This is a REALLY close call for MD/VA west of 95. That sharp cutoff is going to break some hearts for sure. Models won't be able to nail it down with a storm like this. Such a dynamic set up that things can change on a dime. All we can do now is watch radar and hope for the best. We can just as easily see an inch or two or 8"+. Delmarva should get a pretty good shellacking either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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