southmdwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Buoy 42039 (115 miles east/southeast of Pensacola) is reporting 1006.1 mb according to GREarth http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That little chunk of northern stream energy in central TN/KY is going to help get us into the goods. there's gonna' be a sharp cut off with the precip, but I'm feeling it won;t be as close to DCA/BWI as some models may have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Buoy 42039 (115 miles east/southeast of Pensacola) is reporting 1006.1 mb according to GREarth do you have that Buoy link, I'd like to see something on it thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kmlwx Call (3:43pm) for Silver Spring, MD: 2-4 inches DCA: 3-6 inches BWI: 4-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 there's gonna' be a sharp cut off with the precip, but I'm feeling it won;t be as close to DCA/BWI as some models may have it So what are you thinking for BWI/DCA/etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thanks! Merry Christmas too we all need this one because there;'s a warm up coming over the next week and by New Year's day there will be a lot of mud I suspect Merry Christmas to you too! 18z NAM and 15z SREF definitely look better for RIC-DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kmlwx Call (3:43pm) for Silver Spring, MD: 2-4 inches DCA: 3-6 inches BWI: 4-8 inches I think you're going to be upping those #'s after the 0Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFs still have some wild ass spreads on them, lol. big bifference between the ones that give us 18 inches and the ones that give us and inch. There is almost and equal distibution of the outliers compared to the ones in the middle. Huge bust potential either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So what are you thinking for BWI/DCA/etc I'm think 6+ for DCA and 8+ BWI subject to future adjustments, but with what I'm seeing, I'd be surprised if I went lower than higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFs still have some wild ass spreads on them, lol. big bifference between the ones that give us 18 inches and the ones that give us and inch. There is almost and equal distibution of the outliers compared to the ones in the middle. well, some have the 12Z NAM influence in them I'll betcha' the next run of the SREF's won't have many 1" members at all since the NAM has caved with its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=42039 thank you see how the pressures are FALLING RAPIDLY? that's not a Unysis error, that 3 hour pressure drop on that map is real folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm think 6+ for DCA and 8+ BWI subject to future adjustments, but with what I'm seeing, I'd be surprised if I went lower than higher I always have hated forecasting for my town...I have a lot of friends in MoCo but scattered around so no matter what I say I'll probably get it wrong for some group of them - Can't keep everyone happy I suppose. I'm in Colesville, MD so I'm a hair NNW of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Kmlwx Call (3:43pm) for Silver Spring, MD: 2-4 inches DCA: 3-6 inches BWI: 4-8 inches I'd like to hear your prediction for RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 mod snow here temp 32 dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think you're going to be upping those #'s after the 0Z suite. Perhaps but I'd rather stay conservative rather than having to back down. With NWS hoisting a WWA over a WSW I'd prefer to go low W of I-95. I-95 is literally 2 miles from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd like to hear your prediction for RIC 4 million inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Warnings up for counties east of 95. 6 to 10 inches forecasted. DC is included in the warning btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LWX goes with 6-10"....think they'll expand the warning west to Frederick, MD/Loudon, VA by 0Z...up amounts too, to 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 4 million inches. That's 333,333.00 feet In other news, the snowfall continues here. Temp is now below freezing at 31.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LWX goes with 6-10"....think they'll expand the warning west to Frederick, MD/Loudon, VA by 0Z...up amounts too, to 8-14 I don't know...8-14 seems a bit high. Perhaps for the ENE portions of the CWA...I think they are playing it safe right now. Better to start low. I'd say max of 12 inches. At least in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's 333,333.00 feet In other news, the snowfall continues here. Temp is now below freezing at 31.9 Enjoy it man! I have a dumb dinner to go to tonight so I will miss the 18z GFS and other stuff probably until around 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thank you see how the pressures are FALLING RAPIDLY? that's not a Unysis error, that 3 hour pressure drop on that map is real folks If that location is where the surface low is developing...isn't that a tad bit south of forecasts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know...8-14 seems a bit high. Perhaps for the ENE portions of the CWA...I think they are playing it safe right now. Better to start low. I'd say max of 12 inches. At least in our area. We only need a couple slight things to go good for us on this storm to get into the 1 footer territory. And my radar hallucinations as well as empirical data on the low, show those things happening. Plus I seriously think that once the bomb happens even if it happens off the NJ coast, that we see some serious heavy banding all the way back here a la 2/12/2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We only need a couple slight things to go good for us on this storm to get into the 1 footer territory. And my radar hallucinations as well as empirical data on the low, show those things happening. Plus I seriously think that once the bomb happens even if it happens off the NJ coast, that we see some serious heavy banding all the way back here a la 2/12/2006 We will see. But even so, in a high bust potential situation here and a potentially sharp cutoff you don't want to go too high and bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If that location is where the surface low is developing...isn't that a tad bit south of forecasts?? well, it may be, or it may not be remember, we are looking at forecast maps and those maps are not precise I would guess the SLP is on the southern end of the forecast boundary I don;t think that will have a negative effect the RUC is outrageously good with the deep 500mb closed Low, perfectly egg shaped a thing of beauty I tell you, a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think this storm goes down like 12/31/2000 should have; a heavy snow around a foot with up to a foot more PHL-BOS. A tough loss but a bearable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 well, it may be, or it may not be remember, we are looking at forecast maps and those maps are not precise I would guess the SLP is on the southern end of the forecast boundary I don;t think that will have a negative effect the RUC is outrageously good with the deep 500mb closed Low, perfectly egg shaped a thing of beauty I tell you, a thing of beauty Things seem to be playing out quite well the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LWX Point and Click forecasts just issued show, when you combine Sunday and Sunday night, about 3 to 7 inches on west side of DC. But 4 to 8 on East side. About 5 to 9 for Anne Arundel County. 2 to 6 for Montgomery/Fairfax. And 5 to 11 for Baltimore City Interesting note, thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LWX goes with 6-10"....think they'll expand the warning west to Frederick, MD/Loudon, VA by 0Z...up amounts too, to 8-14 I would have to agree, I think its kind of goofy that where I live, 3 counties North of DC, we are under a watch for 6-10, but Mont Co and Frederick are in 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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