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VA/WVA/MD/DC CHRISTMAS 2010 OBS THREAD


Midlo Snow Maker

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SREFs still have some wild ass spreads on them, lol. big bifference between the ones that give us 18 inches and the ones that give us and inch. There is almost and equal distibution of the outliers compared to the ones in the middle.

well, some have the 12Z NAM influence in them

I'll betcha' the next run of the SREF's won't have many 1" members at all since the NAM has caved with its 18z run

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I'm think 6+ for DCA and 8+ BWI

subject to future adjustments, but with what I'm seeing, I'd be surprised if I went lower than higher

I always have hated forecasting for my town...I have a lot of friends in MoCo but scattered around so no matter what I say I'll probably get it wrong for some group of them devilsmiley.gif - Can't keep everyone happy I suppose. I'm in Colesville, MD so I'm a hair NNW of DC.

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LWX goes with 6-10"....think they'll expand the warning west to Frederick, MD/Loudon, VA by 0Z...up amounts too, to 8-14

I don't know...8-14 seems a bit high. Perhaps for the ENE portions of the CWA...I think they are playing it safe right now. Better to start low. I'd say max of 12 inches. At least in our area.

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I don't know...8-14 seems a bit high. Perhaps for the ENE portions of the CWA...I think they are playing it safe right now. Better to start low. I'd say max of 12 inches. At least in our area.

We only need a couple slight things to go good for us on this storm to get into the 1 footer territory. And my radar hallucinations as well as empirical data on the low, show those things happening. Plus I seriously think that once the bomb happens even if it happens off the NJ coast, that we see some serious heavy banding all the way back here a la 2/12/2006

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We only need a couple slight things to go good for us on this storm to get into the 1 footer territory. And my radar hallucinations as well as empirical data on the low, show those things happening. Plus I seriously think that once the bomb happens even if it happens off the NJ coast, that we see some serious heavy banding all the way back here a la 2/12/2006

We will see. But even so, in a high bust potential situation here and a potentially sharp cutoff you don't want to go too high and bust high.

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If that location is where the surface low is developing...isn't that a tad bit south of forecasts??

well, it may be, or it may not be

remember, we are looking at forecast maps and those maps are not precise

I would guess the SLP is on the southern end of the forecast boundary

I don;t think that will have a negative effect

the RUC is outrageously good with the deep 500mb closed Low, perfectly egg shaped

a thing of beauty I tell you, a thing of beauty

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well, it may be, or it may not be

remember, we are looking at forecast maps and those maps are not precise

I would guess the SLP is on the southern end of the forecast boundary

I don;t think that will have a negative effect

the RUC is outrageously good with the deep 500mb closed Low, perfectly egg shaped

a thing of beauty I tell you, a thing of beauty

Things seem to be playing out quite well the last few hours. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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